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This project seeks to examine the extent to which ASEAN-led exercises bolster the regional order in the Asia Pacific. Relying on a conceptual framework that establishes the pathways through which multilateral military exercises can support regional order, the project will focus on exercises convened by the ARF and the ADMM-Plus, as well as the various ASEAN+1 exercises.

Why has the strategic dimension of ASEAN-South Korea relations remained largely absent amidst the rise of the Indo-Pacific? Using the lens of network analysis, this project explores how ASEAN’s approach towards South Korea has been shaped by considerations of relational and social power, including the extent of both actors’ connections to regional nodes such as Australia, China, Japan and the United States.

As part of the 2021 NTU-MOE AcRF Tier 1 grant call, Dr Michael Raska, Assistant Professor and Coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at RSIS, has been awarded $61,812 for a research project titled, “AI in Asian Armies: Technologies for Next Major Wars”. The book project seeks to explore the varying conceptual, organisational, and technological underccurrents of AI-defence innovation, development, deployment, and use in select militaries in East Asia. Comparative case studies of military AI innovation trajectories in the region may help Singaporean defence policymakers to detect a change in new approaches to combat, and prompt a debate of the validity of established strategic paradigms and operational art, and ascertain the character of future warfare.

This research project looks at the role technological innovation plays in shaping power transitions and its impact on Southeast Asia. Technological competition between US and China will likely intensify over the bulk of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies over the next decade, as many of these technologies are dual-use technologies with both economic and military implications. Therefore, domination and leadership over these technologies could determine the outcome of great power competition between China and the US.

A behavioral revolution has expanded experimental research in IR. Yet in the study of real-world decisions, political scientists still face challenges to establish empirically how cognitive processes work. The sources they use may contain valuable clues to understand how decision-makers perform cognitive tasks, but methodological guidance is needed on what to look for. The critical decision method (CMD), an influential knowledge elicitation method in cognitive psychology, provides useful tools to approach real-world individual mental processes. It helps probe how decision-makers interpret situations, make perceptual discriminations, solve problems, and use their cognitive skills to carry out challenging tasks. We show how the CMD captures key cognitive processes in IR such as overconfidence, the (mis)use of analogies and reliance on intuition. We illustrate CMD’s viability for historical case studies by using it to assess General MacArthur's Incheon landing decision in the Korean War.

This project aims to monitor and analyse the drivers and players in Malaysia’s evolving political system. It seeks to discover the key implications of rising political instability for the governance of Malaysia. Themes of interest include party and coalition politics, state-federal relations, public health and security, race and religion, and the mobilisation of youth and civil society. To contribute to research and public awareness, the Programme produces papers and commentaries, collaborates with experts, and organises events to discuss current developments of interest. More details may be found on the Malaysia Programme’s webpage: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/research/idss/research-programmes/malaysia-programme/#.Yd98ci8Rrj0

The project studies Malaysia’s foreign relations and security policy by paying close attention to its postures in bilateral, regional and global issues. It is also attentive to the interplay between domestic and foreign policy imperatives. In doing so, the project aims to discover the nuances that give rise to Malaysia’s complex foreign policy decision-making process and its choice of security partners. To contribute to research and public awareness, the Programme produces papers and commentaries, collaborates with experts, and organises events to discuss current developments of interest. More details may be found on the Malaysia Programme’s webpage: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/research/idss/research-programmes/malaysia-programme/#.Yd98ci8Rrj0

The project studies Malaysia’s foreign relations and security policy by paying close attention to its postures in bilateral, regional and global issues. It is also attentive to the interplay between domestic and foreign policy imperatives. In doing so, the project aims to discover the nuances that give rise to Malaysia’s complex foreign policy decision-making process and its choice of security partners. To contribute to research and public awareness, the Programme produces papers and commentaries, collaborates with experts, and organises events to discuss current developments of interest. More details may be found on the Malaysia Programme’s webpage: https://www.rsis.edu.sg/research/idss/research-programmes/malaysia-programme/#.Yd98ci8Rrj0

With its Indo-Pacific Guidelines, Germany demonstrated determination to overcome its reluctance to engage in foreign and security policy beyond its neighbourhood. This research project will anlayse Berlin’s strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region, its opportunities and limitations. Germany’s hard power capabilities are limited. But Berlin seeks to capitalise on its strength by contributing to the region’s multilateral architecture and working with local partners on non-traditional security challenges. Strategically, especially pertaining to China, Berlin faces manifold challenges: it must balance national interests with the demands of a normatively conscious public and an industrial lobby that seeks economic opportunities; the US seeks to instrumentalise Germany’s China policy; and Berlin must embed its approach within a European framework and reconcile own objectives with a diverse set of EU partners. Deliverables include a book and several seminars and papers.

Asst Prof Hoo Tiang Boon, Coordinator of the MSc (Asian Studies) Programme at RSIS, has received the MOE AcRF Tier 1 grant of $79,730 for a research project titled “Inner Circle: A Study of China's Relations with its Closest Strategic Allies." This project seeks to better understand the nature and substance of China’s relationship with its closest strategic allies in global politics. In particular, it investigates two key puzzles: Who are China’s closest strategic allies in global politics, and what is the extent of these countries’ alignment with China? Conceptually, the project introduces the notion of the “strategic inner circle” to distinguish China’s closest allies, and addresses limitations in existing concepts such as security alliances, military coalitions, clients, and formal partnerships.

The study will identify likely developments in the maritime security environment of Asia over the next decade, including shifts in the maritime balance of power and particular threats and challenges in the maritime domain. The study will take a comprehensive view of security, and will include issues such as the trends with international shipping, environmental protection and resource scarcity. The overall objective will be to identify the implications of these developments for the region and for Singapore. The geographical scope for the study will be the Indo-Pacific region.

The programme collaborates with the Information Fusion Centre (IFC) to work on topical maritime security issues relating to Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) and chokepoints within IFC’s areas of interest. The project aims to better understand the threats and challenges in regional waters. It will consider national, regional and inter-regional maritime law enforcement capacity, best practices and cooperation.