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While each technology constitutive of the Fourth Industrial Revolution could be considered a game-changer on its own, the more likely technological game-changer will be one where advancements in one technology area amplifies other, separate technology areas. Examples include the nexus between synthetic biology and artificial intelligence, between human-machine learning and cognitive manipulation, and between nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence. In these and other examples, the intersection of distinct technology areas can be expected to not only accelerate innovation, but also imply cascading national security risks that may arise more quickly than governments or militaries are prepared for.

This co-authored book chapter, to be published in a Handbook on India-China relations, focuses on the Indian military and its strategy vis-à-vis China. More specifically it argues that India has gradually shifted its military strategy from a defensive to an offensive posture. The chapter begins with a historical analysis of India’s military strategy against China from the 1962 war to the end of the Cold War. During this time, the focus was primarily on “deterrence by denial”—which meant that the forces were largely defensive in their orientation. Next it examines a shift in the military strategy to “deterrence by punishment”, which was in response to China’s rapid military modernisation and infrastructure development. Currently, the Indian military has a much more offensive posture along the China border and in the maritime domain. The penultimate section examines the interaction between the conventional and the nuclear strategy and India’s overall nuclear posture towards Beijing.

This project examines Indian approach to and perceptions of the role of minilaterals as part of India’s broader strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region. It will analyse the extent to which these minilaterals have been successful in furthering broader Indian strategies within the Indo-Pacific and the reasons for their success and/or relative failure.

This book chapter, to be published in a Handbook on South Asian Foreign Policy, focuses on India’s policy toward Iran. The chapter will cover foreign, security, defence and nuclear dimensions of India’s engagement as it evolved over time from pre-independence to the present day. The country’s position on developments in the broader Middle East, energy security, ties to Arab Gulf states, interests in Afghanistan and growing strategic alignment with the United States have all played a key role in determining the trajectory of its Iran policy as will be captured in this chapter.

This chapter examines the status of Indonesia as an “awkward power” in global and regional affairs, focusing in particular on the developments under the Joko Widodo government (2014-present). We argue that despite possessing an economic size close to those of quintessential middle powers, and being acknowledged as a middle power by others, the Widodo administration has increasingly viewed Indonesia as a big power rather than a middle power, and adopted a diplomacy that befits its rising international profile. Despite seeking to position itself as more than a middle power, however, Indonesia has thus far fallen short in achieving big power status. We support our argument by examining two case studies, specifically Indonesia’s approach towards the nascent Indo-Pacific formulation of the region, and its promotion of democracy in Southeast Asia and beyond.

The United States is only one of many players in artificial intelligence (AI), and many nations are taking steps to ensure their competitiveness in AI. Increasingly, nations worldwide are mobilizing policy support for advances in AI technologies and applications, recognizing its importance to future economic dynamism and military capabilities. Although some experts predict the emergence of a “duopoly” between the U.S. and China as AI superpowers, there will be opportunities for a range of contenders, including small and middle powers, to take advantage of AI to enhance their national power. At the same time, developing and integrating AI into military affairs, particularly for small states, poses significant challenges – AI is not be just about the technology itself, but about how military organisations manage the technology.

This project will examine how Chinese liberal scholars (particularly those in the field of political science) seek to understand China’s national interests and the normative conduct of China’s international relations. Given that liberal scholarship is traditionally associated with values of open internationalism, globalisation and free market principles, it is generally believed that a greater affinity liberal principles would generate positive relations between China and the rest of the world (particularly the West). Hence, this project seeks to interrogate further how Chinese international relations scholarship understand liberalism. What are the similarities and differences between Chinese political conceptions of liberalism from those of the West? To what extent can liberalism be said to be a normative preference to act as a basis for the conduct of international politics? How does Chinese liberal thought seek to frame Chinese national interests vis-à-vis those of the wider world?

From fielded applications of artificial narrow intelligence to the looming prospect of future superintelligence, human dependency on and collaboration with machines are increasingly fraught with questions over ethics and norms. With artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) already in use in the civilian and military spheres today, present experiences are progressively shaping the norms that will come to define the human-machine collaboration of the future. Building on these fundamentals, governments and militaries are also seeking guidance on AI/ML ethics. Not only is this an indispensable question of operational safety, but it is also an important signal to programmers and engineers whose criticism of “unethical” or questionable military action may short-circuit militaries’ access to cutting-edge dual-use technologies. As militaries themselves seek to systematise their usage of AI/ML, this study will analyse norms and principles for ethics and safety.

The Indonesia Programme is conducting research on the role of local Islamic leaders that often ends up as influential power brokers within their localities. There is little known about when do influential clerics start gaining power and influence to become power brokers, how do power brokers form networks and alliances with the above actors, how do such networks actually work, and how do such networks exert influence on policy outcomes (e.g., Islamic regulations) at the regional and local levels. This study will identify the regional power brokers, the impetus for their regulations, and the impact of these regulations on the mainstream Muslim community and the religious minorities within the localities.

This project aims to track the emergence of new humanitarian actors (both state and non-state) and to map particular successes, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in preparing for disaster relief and conflict response in the Pacific Islands. The project also focuses on the relationships between civilian and military actors and the emerging points of difference and convergence between the two in responding to HADR in the Asia Pacific. In the process, it will evaluate the quality and impact of both military and civilian organisations’ emergency responses. Fieldwork will be carried out in Fiji and Tonga.

This project focuses on the prospects of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM-Plus to continue managing regional security challenges, as well as their contributions towards defence diplomacy and shaping the regional security architecture. It will also review the achievements of Singapore’s ADMM Chairmanship in 2018, and the progress of these initiatives in the year ahead. The scope of this project includes: (i) exploring how the ADMM and ADMM-Plus could continue contributing to regional security challenges, including the potential adoption of the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters by the ADMM-Plus; (ii) examining the pros and cons of the ADMM-Plus exercises thus far, and their impact on defence diplomacy; and (iii) reviewing the progress of initiatives that were implemented during Singapore’s ADMM Chairmanship.

This project is a study of domestic politics under the new Pakatan Harapan government. It is two-year study which aims to understand and explain the manifestations of change and continuity across three broad areas of domestic politics: (i) the system of patronage in order to identify networks of power brokers; (ii) the issues and challenges concerning governance; and (iii) the ways in which party politics in both the ruling coalition and the opposition can be expected to evolve.

Critics have pointed out the apparent ineffectiveness of the ASEAN-centric regional security architecture in managing East Asia’s evolving strategic dynamics, particularly where major power relations are concerned. Given this context, the project will explore the implications and lessons that other regional security architectures, particularly in Europe, Middle East and South Asia, could hold for the ASEAN-centric regional security architecture in East Asia. The scope of this project includes: (i) examining the objectives and functions of multilateral mechanisms that constitute the regional security architectures in Europe, Middle East and South Asia, as well as the Indo-Pacific Concept; (ii) exploring how these other regional security architectures are similar or different from the East Asian regional security architecture; and (iii) identifying lessons and implications that could support or undermine the ASEAN-centric regional security architecture in East Asia.

This project examines the field of humanitarian technology (HUMTECH) as applied to a broadly defined context of crises encompassing both natural disasters and conflict zones. This project seeks to identify the impact technology has on humanitarian responses as well as the emergent challenges of information technology, big data and technological innovations in humanitarian action. Specifically, it will explore technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain, Digital Identity, and Machine Learning. This project stems from a need for practitioners and researchers to learn how to engage with these new forms of technology, and to sensitise themselves to emerging avenues of information and data collection.

The China-India “reset” marks a new warmth that appears to confirm the judgment of many analysts that the India-China competition has been well managed by a process of regular political engagement. But there is another side to the story. The underlying sources of tension between the two countries remain unaddressed, while new problems are looming. A useful framework for understanding the strategic relationship is that of comparative nuclear rivalries, a surprisingly under-explored phenomenon considering the enormous effort expended on the study of inter-state rivalry.

This research project attempts to understand recent Indian moves to play a more visible role in maintaining the security of the Straits of Malacca (SOM). It will examine Indian perceptions about India’s preferred role in the SOM. It will also examine the perceptions of Southeast Asian states, specifically Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, towards Indian attempts to play a more active role in the SOM.

This project will focus on the changes and continuities in the foreign policy that are being adopted and will come to fruition in the coming years by the Pakatan Harapan government. Although much of the rhetoric put forth by the government has been overtly about domestic policies, there are some important cues within their rhetoric to signal their foreign policy intentions.

This project is a study the evolution of racial and religious relations under the new Pakatan Harapan government. It shall study structures such as party politics, racial politics, ethno-religious governance, and racial and religious non-governmental organisations, and the role they play in impacting how race and religion can be understood in Malaysia.

Southeast Asian military modernisation since the end of the Cold War requires an overall examination. Since convenient arms supplies and military aid flowing from the previous bipolar confrontation are generally no longer available, regional militaries have had to face the cruel reality of financial affordability, and consequently develop different practices for modernisation. As some regional militaries add new capabilities, such as submarines, some are struggling to maintain basic functions, such as airlift. This project will additionally explore trends in procurement and the impacts of new assets on existing capabilities. The period more than a quarter of century since the end of the Cold War should be sufficient for Southeast Asian countries to demonstrate certain models or patterns in their defence acquisition. Feasible scenarios based on the current geopolitical environment present a useful ground for elaborating on the integration between newly added and existing assets.

The strategic partnership between India and Japan, strengthened under Modi, demonstrates a substantial degree of continuity from preceding governments. Policy continuity and nuanced change are better understood as being shaped by both systemic factors and by domestic politics. The ongoing transition from an anarchic system to one characterised by growing complex interdependence has produced a consistently mixed pattern of strategic behavior in strategic rivalries While this accounts for a high degree of continuity, shifts in extractive capacity at the domestic level help explain a degree of change. The paper examines three dimensions of India-Japan strategic relations: the developing bilateral partnership, the somewhat weaker but still growing India-Japan-United States triangle, and the more tentative “Quad,” which includes Australia. The paper concludes that the ambiguities in India’s strategic relations with Japan are likely to persist for the foreseeable future.

This project synthesises two areas of focus in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of hitherto neglected research subjects: (i) the role of women in framing and re-framing Islamic politics in Malaysia; and (ii) Malaysia’s Islamic and Islamist influence in Southeast Asia. It shall be conducted over two years as a multi-methods project. The policy implications of this project are multiple and include potential proposals for interstate security policy concerning terrorism, Singapore’s foreign policy concerning Islam, and Singapore’s domestic religious management. While little is currently known about the proposed research areas, it is anticipated that the knowledge produced may result in a significant development in both academic and policy understandings of Malaysian political Islam — from Malaysia as a passive recipient of Islamist influence, to Malaysia’s active role in shaping a tradition of Islamism in the region and beyond.

This project is the second part of a two-year study which synthesises two areas of focus in order to develop a comprehensive understanding of hitherto neglected research subjects: (i) the role of women in framing and reframing Islamic politics in Malaysia; and (ii) Malaysia’s Islamic and Islamist influence in Southeast Asia.

The key questions that will be raised in this study are: (i) why did India launch its sustained exercise in coercive diplomacy to try and compel Pakistan to abandon its support for terrorist groups attacking Indian targets? and (ii) why did India decide to terminate the exercise ten months later? Implicit in the first is the corollary question: was there a real intent to go to war? Or was it all just a giant bluff? An integral aspect of the questions posed above is “to what extent did nuclear weapons exercise an influence on the decision?” The focus of this project is on methodology and the state of our knowledge with regard to the availability of reliable evidence.

The key questions raised in this study are: (i) Why did India launch its sustained exercise in coercive diplomacy to try and compel Pakistan to abandon its support for terrorist groups attacking Indian targets?; and (ii) Why did India decide to terminate the exercise ten months later? Implicit in the first is the corollary question: was there a real intent to go to war? Or was it all just a giant bluff? An integral aspect of the questions posed above is to what extent did nuclear weapons exercise an influence on the decision? The focus is on methodology and the state of our knowledge with regard to the availability of reliable evidence.

This research project seeks to chart out the officer education for the militaries of key Asia Pacific countries. This report will provide a strong basis to compare and contrast the state of officer training and education between ASEAN members and other militaries in the region. The analysis from this report will provide a number of policy implications; a criterion for effective Professional Military Education (PME) across nations and services, a review of current officer training and education, differentiating how different Services approach officer education, as well as offering insights on how bilateral and multilateral relationships could be further enhanced through defence diplomacy.

This book seeks to address emerging trends and developments when it comes to future warfare in East Asia. It will explore the likely future military domains, warfighting concepts, and subsequent military-technological priorities that could be the most critical in the next two decades. It considers what may constitute the next revolution in military affairs and when and how it might occur. Questions to consider include: (i) what is the role of new and emerging enabling technologies and their impact on warfighting in East Asia; (ii) what are the most likely kinds of armed conflict that we can expect in the next two decades; (iii) where is conflict most likely to occur; (iv) will armed conflict be more or less prevalent than now; and (v) what are the shocks or game-changers that can alter the route to the most likely future? How, then, might these long-term developments affect regional security and defence?

This proposed research project is a historical study of Malaysian counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy and practice against the Communist Party of Malaya (CPM) and the North Kalimantan Communist Party (NKCP) during the 1963–1990 period. This study intends to elucidate the following three areas of historical significance: Why were there two distinct communist insurgencies in Malaysia; How did Malaysia defeat two separate communist insurgencies in two different geographical locations (Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo); the COIN response and strategy of Malaysia and to a lesser extent the counter-subversion strategy of Singapore to the CPM threat. The results of the research project will be published in a sole-authored book.

As a regional institution long known for its preference of consensus, consultation and informality, ASEAN took a step in late 2007 to develop a legal personality with the establishment of the ASEAN charter. But while ASEAN has in place a legal framework for mediating and settling economic disputes between and among member states, such a framework for handling security challenges and facilitating intra-ASEAN security cooperation remains underdeveloped. This project highlights and discusses various transnational security-related issues and challenges that affect most if not all the ASEAN member countries and assesses how ASEAN has sought to address them through the legal-institutional frameworks and instruments at its disposal.

The study will identify likely developments in the maritime security environment of Asia over the next decade, including shifts in the maritime balance of power and particular threats and challenges in the maritime domain. The study will take a comprehensive view of security, and will include issues such as the trends with international shipping, environmental protection and resource scarcity. The overall objective will be to identify the implications of these developments for the region and for Singapore. The geographical scope for the study will be the Indo-Pacific region.

The programme collaborates with the Information Fusion Centre (IFC) to work on topical maritime security issues relating to Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) and chokepoints within IFC’s areas of interest. The project aims to better understand the threats and challenges in regional waters. It will consider national, regional and inter-regional maritime law enforcement capacity, best practices and cooperation.