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Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses

Building a Global Network for Security

ISSN 2382-6444

The Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) carries articles with in-depth analysis of topical issues on terrorism and counter-terrorism, broadly structured around a common theme. CTTA brings perspectives from counter-terrorism researchers and practitioners with a view to produce policy relevant analysis. Launched in 2009, Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses is the journal of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. The CTTA has a circulation of more than 11,000 subscribers.

Articles in this Latest Issue

Volume 12, Issue 02 (March 2020): Geopolitics and Jihadism in a Post-Soleimani Era

The high-profile assassination of General Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (QF), on January 3 in Baghdad marked the lowest point in US-Iran relations in recent times. It triggered a new spell of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with far-reaching consequences for South and Southeast Asia. Soleimani’s killing has also coincided with the potential rejuvenation of the Islamic State (IS), and ongoing anti-government protests in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon.

Soleimani’s killing was bound to have reverberations beyond the Middle East. Muslim-majority states in South and Southeast Asia, where both Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in sectarian proxy wars by funding and influencing the Sunni and Shia segments of the population. While states in both regions have condemned Soleimani’s killing, they have stayed largely neutral to avoid getting sucked into rising geopolitical tensions.

Against this backdrop, the March issue of the Counter Terrorists Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features three articles that explore different dimensions of Soleimani’s death and their geopolitical implications. In the first article, James M. Dorsey argues that as US-Iran tensions have eased in recent months, Iranian hardliners, emboldened by a sweeping mandate earned in recent domestic elections, remain committed to a well-honed strategy of escalating asymmetric warfare. According to the author, this raises the prospects for a full-scale war, with the United States also still pursuing a maximum pressure campaign on Iran that has to date, yet to produce tangible results.

In the second article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that despite a general consensus that the US-Iran rupture will ease pressure on transnational jihadist groups in the Middle East theatre, it remains unclear how Soleimani’s killing will shape their future behaviour. On the one hand, Iran-backed Shia militias are likely to step up their operations, which will exacerbate sectarian fault-lines in the region and feed into IS’ self-portrayal as the saviours of Sunnis. Conversely, pragmatism continues to define interactions between Tehran and Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, who appear happy to cooperate to ensure broader strategic goals.

Next, Bilveer Singh examines the implications of Soleimani’s assassination for South and Southeast Asia. regions where both Iran and Saudi Arabia enjoy ideological influence among the Muslim-majority states. Sunni Malaysia and Indonesia have reservations about Tehran, but domestic political pressures are likely to endear Iran to them more than the US. The impact in South Asia could be more varied, mostly affecting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran through its Shia militant proxies can undermine US interests in Afghanistan. The QF has also recruited significant Shia militias in Afghanistan and Pakistan respectively for operations in Syria.  Moreover, Pakistan has to walk a tight rope given Iran has an inside track to its significant Shia population.

Besides cross and intra-regional assessments of Soleimani’s assassination within the broader US-Iran fissures, the threat landscapes in Indonesia and West Africa, both long-time hotbeds for terrorist activity in their respective regions, are also examined in this issue. Firstly, Noor Huda Ismail takes a closer look at pro-IS terrorist networks in Indonesia, a country that is home to the world’s largest Muslim population. By examining the background, tactics and modus operandi of local terrorist groups, both online and offline, and comparing their legacy with those of previous militant Islamist movements, the author believes important learning lessons can be drawn to help mitigate future security threats.

Finally, Atta Barkindo analyses the jihadist threat in the Sahel region, where a landscape conducive to terrorist activities provides the fertile ground for IS and Al-Qaeda to grow by linking up with local militant networks. The tactical sophistication exhibited in terrorist attacks by Sahelian jihadist groups, particularly in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, testifies to a growing footprint of global jihadism. Sahel provides an arterial life-line through the region, by facilitating the movement of goods and people between the Mediterranean and West Africa, which has been enormously beneficial to terrorist groups involved in organised criminal enterprises. Moreover, desertification and environmental degradation have also created a conducive environment for criminal activities and terrorism.

Since the writing of this issue, the global coronavirus pandemic has also revived concerns of the threat of bioterrorism. Both Islamist and far-right extremists are exploiting the COVID-19 crisis to pursue their extremist objectives and spread hate. Groups on either side have called on their operatives to target adversaries, by spreading the virus in “enemy-populated areas.” As the COVID-19 outbreak has demonstrated, a potential biological event can have catastrophic consequences, and will require evidence-based countermeasures on a global scale.

In conclusion, the editorial team would also like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the late Ms Viji Menon to the CTTA over the last three years. We are sincerely grateful.

Please click HERE to read the full issue.

Subscribing to CTTA

To be added to the CTTA mailing list, please email your full name, organisation and designation, with the subject ‘CTTA Subscription’ to [email protected].

Editorial Team

Advisory Board

  • Dr Jolene Jerard Adjunct Senior Fellow, Deputy Head of International Centre for Political Violence and Research, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Dr Rohan Gunaratna Professor of Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Dr Kumar Ramakrishna Associate Professor, Head of Policy Studies & Coordinator of National Security Studies Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Dr John Harrison Associate Editor Journal of Transportation Security
  • Dr Marcin Styszynski, Assistant Professor, Adam Mickiewicz University, Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies
  • Dr Fernando Reinares Director, Program on Global Terrorism, Elcano Royal Institute
    Professor of Security Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain
  • Dr Stephen Sloan Professor Emeritus, The University of Oklahoma Lawrence J. Chastang, Distinguished Professor of Terrorism Studies, The University of Central Florida
  • Dr Hamoon Khelghat-Doost, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, Science University of Malaysia

Call for Contributions

Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) welcomes contributions from researchers and practitioners in political violence and terrorism, security and other related fields.

Issue Calendar 2020

The Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) series for 2020 welcomes topical, timely and relevant policy-oriented articles that allow readers to gain an in-depth understanding of the overall global and regional threat landscape. This could include strategic counter-terrorism issues, regionally focused articles as well as specialised topics.

Themes of Interest:

  • Rise of right-wing extremist movements in North America, Europe, Australia and other regions.
  • Analysis and policy responses to ethno-nationalist, separatist and non-Islamist extremist/terrorist organisations.
  • Developing areas including cyber terrorism, cyber security, innovative policing techniques and evolving counter-terrorism responses.

CTTA Submission Guidelines/ Editorial Style and Policy

Please email your submissions to [email protected].

Submission deadlines: The CTTA is published quarterly; submissions are accepted each month for consideration.

Preferred file format: MS Word document. Please do not submit in PDF format.

Originality: The author should only submit her or his original work. The author should not submit concurrent manuscripts (or manuscripts essentially describing the same subject matter) to multiple journals. The author must first seek editorial permission, if he or she would like to submit an article which has previously been published elsewhere.

Editors are entitled to request the author to provide the raw data for her or his research for convenience of editorial review.

Manuscript title: The title should be limited to 15 words or less; the title should be a brief phrase describing the contents of the paper.

Abstract: The abstract should summarise the manuscript content in 70-100 words. The abstract should be informative and self-explanatory, and should state the argument of the article and its major conclusions. Standard nomenclature should be used, and if abbreviations are used they must be defined at their first mention.

Word length: We publish articles within three different categories with varied word lengths. This includes, (i) commentaries: between 1,000 to 1,500 words, (ii) regular articles: between 2,000 to 3,000 words, and (iii) in-depth feature articles: between 4,000 to 5,000 words.

Structure: Please divide your article into subtopics with subheadings.

Style: British spelling and language style are used for the CTTA (as with other publications of ICPVTR and RSIS).

References and citations: Chicago Manual of Style (Footnoting system) is used.

If the author has used work, ideas and/or words of others, appropriate citations are required within the text of the article. Author should provide a list of references to indicate all sources that have supported the research at the end of the article.

Author information: Please include complete names and affiliation/ and or experience of author(s) in a few lines at the end of the article; contact email address of author(s) can be included.

The author should give due acknowledgement to all individuals who have made contributions to the research, and those who have contributed significantly to the research should be listed as co-authors. The author should ensure that all co-authors have affirmed the final version of the paper and have agreed on its final publication.

Copyright: The copyright of a published article will remain with the author(s); the author(s) agree to require that the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis (CTTA) journal be given credit as the original publisher in any republication of the article authorised by the author(s). Such credit shall include a proper citation to the article’s publication in the CTTA, including the author(s), the journal, the volume and issue numbers, the year of the article’s publication in the journal and the internet address for the issue.

The Editorial Team reserves the right to make changes to the content of submissions for publication and/or reject a submission at its discretion.

Please contact us at [email protected] if you have any queries pertaining to the CTTA submission guidelines or editorial style and policy.

Past Issues

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

Last updated on 27/03/2020