• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 15 Issue 01
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 15 Issue 01
    Kumar Ramakrishna, Benjamin Mok, Abigail Leong, Muhammad Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman, Abdul Basit, Iftekharul Bashar

    03 January 2023

    download pdf

    Annual Threat Assessment

    Across the regions surveyed in this volume which encapsulates the 2022 trends, the evolving global violent extremist threat is assessed via the following major trends:  Operational Issues and Challenges for Religious and Ethno-Nationalist Militant Groups; An Evolving Spectrum of Attack Modalities and Targets; Role of Women and Youth; Role of Ideological Ecosystems; The Evolving Extreme Right Threat; and A Mix of “Hard” and “Soft” Measures in State Responses.

    The Southeast Asian threat picture was generally temperate in 2022, as militant groups were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which placed significant limits on travel and mass gatherings and weakened extremist funding bases over the last two years. In Indonesia, effective counter terrorism efforts largely decimated various pro-IS networks operationally, notwithstanding a year-end suicide attack by an IS-linked terrorist. Repeated clampdowns on social media platforms also weakened their online presence. Similarly, Malaysia continued to experience fewer terrorism-related arrests in 2022, possibly because of lockdown measures. For its part, the Philippines’ Mindanao region has seen a significant number of terrorist surrenders over the past three years, driven by various factors including fatigue, hunger and declining financial support. Leadership decapitation and effective operations by the military had also contributed to a reduced terrorist threat.

    The South Asian threat picture continued to be marked by concerns about the mid to long-term impact of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. One year since its return, the prospect of the country again becoming a safe haven for terror groups to regenerate formidable external attack capabilities has been ameliorated for three main reasons.

    First, the Taliban in 2022 continued to face a significant domestic challenge from the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK). In response, it had to focus significantly on anti-ISK operations around Afghanistan. Second, the killing of long-time Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in August raised questions about the future of Al-Qaeda central in the global terror landscape. Third, it is notable that ISK, despite maintaining a presence in parts of Afghanistan, thus far still appears to be operationally constrained and unable to assert control over any territory.

    An emerging focus in 2022 were indications that following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China could become the next big target for jihadists. In this respect, given the trend of recent ISK attacks and its anti-China propaganda, Chinese interests are increasingly on the receiving end of attacks by militants.

    Meanwhile in the Middle East, the long-running Israeli-Palestinian dispute remained fraught, while the danger of the Israel-Iran rivalry degenerating into a full-blown confrontation remained high.

    Separately, the relatively close nexus between Extreme Right social movements and Far Right political entities continued to be a distinct feature of Western, Buddhist and Hindu Extreme Right movements in 2022. Further, the latter-day trend of women and youth assuming significant roles in the various activities of threat networks continued in 2022.

    The importance of better understanding the ideological ecosystems propagating and sustaining violent extremist narratives also persisted. Such ecosystems included, amongst other elements, interconnected networks of social media and print platforms, strategic influencers or persons, as well as certain extremist organisational, educational and religious places.

    Finally, given the challenging transnational terrorism and extremism landscape in 2022, this survey reiterates the importance of a judicious blend of hard short-term and softer medium to longer-term approaches to deal comprehensively with the full spectrum of the terrorism/extremism threat going forward.

    Categories: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses / / Global

    Last updated on 03/01/2023

    Annual Threat Assessment

    Across the regions surveyed in this volume which encapsulates the 2022 trends, the evolving global violent extremist threat is assessed via the following major trends:  Operational Issues and Challenges for Religious and Ethno-Nationalist Militant Groups; An Evolving Spectrum of Attack Modalities and Targets; Role of Women and Youth; Role of Ideological Ecosystems; The Evolving Extreme Right Threat; and A Mix of “Hard” and “Soft” Measures in State Responses.

    The Southeast Asian threat picture was generally temperate in 2022, as militant groups were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which placed significant limits on travel and mass gatherings and weakened extremist funding bases over the last two years. In Indonesia, effective counter terrorism efforts largely decimated various pro-IS networks operationally, notwithstanding a year-end suicide attack by an IS-linked terrorist. Repeated clampdowns on social media platforms also weakened their online presence. Similarly, Malaysia continued to experience fewer terrorism-related arrests in 2022, possibly because of lockdown measures. For its part, the Philippines’ Mindanao region has seen a significant number of terrorist surrenders over the past three years, driven by various factors including fatigue, hunger and declining financial support. Leadership decapitation and effective operations by the military had also contributed to a reduced terrorist threat.

    The South Asian threat picture continued to be marked by concerns about the mid to long-term impact of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. One year since its return, the prospect of the country again becoming a safe haven for terror groups to regenerate formidable external attack capabilities has been ameliorated for three main reasons.

    First, the Taliban in 2022 continued to face a significant domestic challenge from the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK). In response, it had to focus significantly on anti-ISK operations around Afghanistan. Second, the killing of long-time Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in August raised questions about the future of Al-Qaeda central in the global terror landscape. Third, it is notable that ISK, despite maintaining a presence in parts of Afghanistan, thus far still appears to be operationally constrained and unable to assert control over any territory.

    An emerging focus in 2022 were indications that following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China could become the next big target for jihadists. In this respect, given the trend of recent ISK attacks and its anti-China propaganda, Chinese interests are increasingly on the receiving end of attacks by militants.

    Meanwhile in the Middle East, the long-running Israeli-Palestinian dispute remained fraught, while the danger of the Israel-Iran rivalry degenerating into a full-blown confrontation remained high.

    Separately, the relatively close nexus between Extreme Right social movements and Far Right political entities continued to be a distinct feature of Western, Buddhist and Hindu Extreme Right movements in 2022. Further, the latter-day trend of women and youth assuming significant roles in the various activities of threat networks continued in 2022.

    The importance of better understanding the ideological ecosystems propagating and sustaining violent extremist narratives also persisted. Such ecosystems included, amongst other elements, interconnected networks of social media and print platforms, strategic influencers or persons, as well as certain extremist organisational, educational and religious places.

    Finally, given the challenging transnational terrorism and extremism landscape in 2022, this survey reiterates the importance of a judicious blend of hard short-term and softer medium to longer-term approaches to deal comprehensively with the full spectrum of the terrorism/extremism threat going forward.

    Categories: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses

    Last updated on 03/01/2023

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 15 Issue 01

    Annual Threat Assessment

    Across the regions surveyed in this volume which encapsulat ...

    more info