Volume 13, Issue 01 (January 2021): Annual Threat Assessment

The year 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of December 18, 2020, with more than 75 million cases and over 1.7 million deaths worldwide, the struggle against COVID-19 is, likely to be the defining struggle of this generation. Unsurprisingly, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt across the board, including within the domain of countering and preventing transnational terrorism and violent extremism, in various ways. That said, strategic trends evident in recent years remained robust into 2020, certainly as far as the violent Islamist terrorist threat – still the most potent terrorist threat to global peace and stability – was concerned. Despite the military demise of its so-called territorial caliphate carved out of Iraq and Syria last year, the Islamic State (IS) managed to remain resilient and active, not just on the ground in the Middle East – where it launched notable attacks on civilian sites, oil fields and security forces – but also in the cyber domain.

In fact, IS has re-envisioned the caliphate as an overarching global state rather than one that is confined to Iraq and Syria, and has sought to make opportunistic virtue out of a strategic necessity. IS thus reframed the inclement strategic situation it faced in 2020 as a “protracted resistance” strategy that had to be waged stoically, taking supposedly temporary military setbacks in stride. As far as the estranged ideological cousin of IS, Al-Qaeda was concerned, the year in some ways proved particularly traumatic. The loss of several senior leaders significantly impacted the network. Rather than tight strategic control, both IS and Al-Qaeda have sought through social media to provide a broad strategic narrative to guide the actions of a widely scattered global network of affiliates and cells. This violent Islamist global strategic narrative remained centred on three core themes, as in previous years, but adapted to diverse local contexts across the world: armed jihad to establish the khilāfa (caliphate); hatred of the non-Muslim Other, and the End Times and the coming of the Mahdi.

Across the regions surveyed in this volume, the evolving global violent Islamist threat could be deconstructed by way of six major trends. 1. The Continuing Salience of Lone Actor Attacks against Civilian and Government Targets. 2. The Involvement of Women, Youth and Family Networks. 3. Returning Foreign Fighters and their Families. 4. The Role of Diasporas. 5. Ideological Ecosystems Sustaining Violent Islamist Ideology and Perspectives. 6. The Diversity of Terror Financing Mechanisms.

The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the transnational Islamist terrorism and extremism landscape in 2020 was felt on both the ideological and operational fronts. Ideologically, many Islamist extremist ideologues exploited the pandemic to push out the narrative that the End Times and, hence ultimate victory, were nigh. The pandemic also impacted the operational efficiency of both security forces and terrorist networks alike. Security forces had to split attention and limited resources between operations to enforce physical lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus and ongoing operations against terrorist networks – a situation quickly exploited by the latter. However, the imposition of border controls and lockdown measures also significantly reduced terrorist operating space. Cross-border movement – was generally tightened, while domestic lockdowns prevented the face-to-face meetings that facilitate the radicalisation of new recruits. On the other hand, lockdowns also compelled vulnerable individuals to spend more time online, where they were potentially able to immerse themselves even more deeply in violent extremist ideological content.

Additionally, three important Extreme Right Movements also characterised the terrorist threat landscape in 2020: those fueled by Buddhist, Hindu and White Nationalist extremism. In particular, what stood out was the ways in which such Extreme Right social movements were linked to, or influenced the agendas, of somewhat ideologically related Far-Right political parties and entities across the regions surveyed in 2020.

Finally, given the challenging transnational terrorism and extremism landscape in 2020, the issue offers several policy recommendations for governments and other relevant stakeholders to consider. Two broad observations are as follows: First, there should be a judicious blend of hard, short-term counter-terrorist and softer medium to longer-term counter-terrorism approaches to deal comprehensively with the full spectrum of the threat. Further, there is a growing need to better understand how the ideological ecosystems that propagate the extremist ideologies that sustain terrorist and support networks operate.

In conclusion, we thank you for your continued subscription to the CTTA and hope for everyone to stay safe and healthy going into the new year!