Editorial Note: Evolving and Diverse Terrorism Threat in Africa

In recent years, Africa has emerged as the new hotspot of jihadist violence. As Al-Qaeda has weakened in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s takeover, and the Islamic State (IS) has lost its territorial holdings in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria, Africa has gained salience. Though Al-Qaeda and IS survive and persist on the fringes in the Middle East, largely the region has become less hospitable to extremist ideologies. The decisions of influential Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to break away from Wahabism and open up their societies through reforms have made the crisis of Al-Qaeda and IS more acute. Consequently, IS has turned its focus towards Africa which is awash with illegal weapons, ungoverned spaces, porous borders, weak state authorities, a plethora of competing terrorist groups and vulnerable youth.

IS has seen phenomenal growth in Africa, expanding its tentacles to Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameron, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia and Tunisia. The continent is now home to more than half of IS’ official provinces. Against this backdrop, the March issue comprising four articles explores various issues concerning terrorism and counter terrorism in Africa, such as has the centre of gravity of global jihadism moved from the Middle East to Africa or not? Likewise, it looks into the rivalry of IS and Al-Qaeda affiliates in the region as well as efforts to curb the threat of transnational terrorism.

The first article by James M. Dorsey examines the operational advantages to jihadist groups, such as weak governance, porous borders and vulnerable young populations around Sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan. He notes that the two regions provide hideouts to IS and Al-Qaeda to operate on the fringes of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, enabling higher levels of political violence for a prolonged period. The three regions on the eastern and southern borders of Europe and Central Asia, where China and Russia also have a presence, are also largely governed by ineffective autocracies and have large young populations with limited opportunities. Consequently, the prospect looms that jihadist groups could morph into important players in the growing power competition between the Western nations, China, and Russia.

Next, Jacob Zenn discusses the threat posed by the Islamic State in Somalia Province (ISSP) and its pro-Al-Qaeda rival group Al-Shabaab amidst the ongoing civil war and the resultant widespread instability in Somalia. While the Somali government and army control some key cities, Al-Shabaab remains a significant threat in rural areas. Conversely, despite ISSP being associated with the notorious IS brand, the author notes that the persistent threat to Somalia will be Al-Shabaab. As Al-Qaeda’s presence in eastern Africa depends largely on Al-Shabaab and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM), the conflict in Somalia and the threat posed by Al-Shabaab may persist for the foreseeable future.

The third article by Atta Barkindo situates Boko Haram-ISWAP in the expanding terror network and the potential for IS to consolidate its presence in Africa. Since 2015, when the IS released its propaganda magazine, Dabiq, outlining its strategy to mobilise and support jihadist groups in Africa, various regional militant groups have pledged oath allegiance to IS and become part of its so-called wilayat (governorate or province) in Africa. The author argues that Africa has become the centre of gravity for IS, with half of its claimed global operations taking place on the continent since early 2022. He notes that to neuter the threat from extremist groups like ISWAP, African governments must address structural issues by providing social security, alternative livelihood opportunities and mitigating economic deprivation through access to quality education and healthcare, as well as reducing the impact of climate change.

Finally, Raffaello Pantucci argues that terrorist threats and great power conflict are increasingly intersecting in some regions, particularly in Africa, where a rising Russian presence is gradually supplanting Western forces. As counter-terrorism efforts increasingly become a battleground for great power rivalries, the concern is it will overshadow the actual threat of terrorism, potentially allowing terrorist groups to proliferate and expand. The article also notes an evolving counter terrorism picture, with limitations in Western approaches pushing local authorities in Africa to alternatives such as Russia. Although most African terrorist groups are currently focused on regional objectives, the risk exists that they could develop into more dangerous and outward-facing organisations.