Editorial note: Extremist Trends and Online Narratives – Disruptions and Chaos

As COVID-19 enters an endemic phase, the threat of terrorism continues to evolve rendering its landscape diverse, complicated and more dangerous. Though the frequency of terrorist attacks has declined globally, extremist narratives have proliferated in the online space, causing disruption and mayhem. COVID-19 expedited several ongoing extremist trends. But how these expedited trends and online narratives translate into extremist threat remains an on-going concern, necessitating continuous vigilance and monitoring.

At any rate, it is evident that the current threat landscape is chronic and fragmented.  Simultaneously, the declining but resilient wave of religious-based terrorism is co-existing with a resurgent wave of ethno-nationalist terrorism involving a plethora of far-right groups in different parts of Europe, US and Asia. Against this backdrop, this June issue of the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles covering different dimensions of this fragmented landscape.

In the first article, Jordan Newton examines the online activity of pro-Islamic State (IS) supporters in Indonesia. In comparison to the height of its caliphate operations in the early 2010s, when IS’ formidable propaganda machine used social media to amplify the group’s public presence, pro-IS voices in Indonesia, while active across a range of platforms, are presently smaller, weaker and more contested. According to the author, this decline accrues primarily to years’ long efforts by the government, social media platforms and civil society to tamp down extremist propaganda. This has transformed a once open and permissive online environment for pro-IS supporters into one which is now increasingly narrow, watchful and hostile. Still, Indonesia’s pro-IS community retains solid fundamentals which could be built upon to regain some ground online.

The second article by Benjamin Mok explores an online subculture of the Hindutva movement termed as ‘trad,’ which mainly operates within the online digital ecosystems.  “Trad” refers to an extreme fringe within the Hindutva spectrum that derides mainstream Hindutva proponents as being soft on different Indian religious minorities, particularly Muslims.  According to the author, trad communities are distinguished from mainstream Hindutva communities via three core traits: their use of vulgar humour to trivialise extremism, coded language to form an ‘in-group’, and uncompromising distrust of any ‘out-groups.’ These core traits work together to encourage radicalisation of those exposed to extremist content, and to ensure that these communities are not beholden to mainstream ethical norms.

Next, Raffaello Pantucci assesses the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on terrorist threats across the ideological spectrum. According to the author, this threat has resonated particularly among the extreme right wing in Europe, where longstanding radical communities, in similar vein to their American counterparts, have absorbed anti-pandemic sentiments, chosen symbolic state targets and sought to launch terrorist attacks against them. Over the past year, a notable number of large-scale disruptions involving networks of radicalised individuals, often with military training and inspired by extreme right ideas, have been observed in parts of Europe. In the near term, the pandemic response of greater state control, alongside the likely impoverishment of large populations in the wake of the pandemic and the fall-out from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, potentially point to a context in Europe where the violent extreme right can worsen.

Finally, Dr Muhammad Haniff Hassan examines the notion and practice of Bai`ah Al-Mawt (pledge of death) among contemporary jihadist groups through the lens of Islamic Sunni intellectual tradition and security studies. His work has three important implications for the Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) initiatives. The author notes that conceptually and theologically, Bai`ah Al-Mawt is not problematic from the standpoint of Islamic Sunni intellectual tradition. However, the jihadist application of Bai’ah Al-Mawt  is highly problematic and a deep cause for security concern because: a) the pledge can only be employed by the right authority or by groups officially sanctioned; b) jihadist groups who are rebellious and cause strife do not fulfil the “right cause” criterion for waging armed jihad in the Sunni tradition; and c) jihadist groups employ this concept for suicide operations, in contrast to the conventional understanding of “fight till death” and “no retreat/surrender” (i.e. daring missions where death is probable but not certain). The author suggests that P/CVE stakeholders work towards mainstreaming the understanding of the pledge as defined by the Prophet’s companions as a means to counter the jihadist groups’ blatant misinterpretation.