Extreme Right-Wing in the West
The extreme right-wing terror threat persisted in 2023, though it continued to plateau as in recent years. The volume and scale of attacks declined, though there was a persistent problem of hate crime and right-wing violence which often escalated in response to events. The ideological motivations behind most extreme right-wing attacks were similar to the past years – white supremacist, anti-immigrant, anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-Semitic tropes dominated, with recent events in Israel and Gaza creating a context in which these ideologies were able to flourish further. The immigrant crisis in Europe and the United States (US) continued to provide fuel for mainstream far right leaders to try to gain power, though it was notable how some far right European parties found themselves ousted from office. The looming 2024 US election and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House remains the highest impact event that might awaken the threat once again. The current turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine also has the potential to create a surge in extreme right-wing activity and violence.
The Threat in Numbers
The Asia-Pacific country most affected by extreme right-wing violence in recent years, Australia, did not see a surge in related violence in 2023. In February 2023, the chief of Australia’s national security agency, Mike Burgess, provided his annual threat assessment for the country. In it, he outlined a persistent threat picture across the board. Notably, he highlighted how, notwithstanding an attack involving a Christian fundamentalist in the wake of the government’s decision to lower the country’s threat level in November 2022, there was no reason to raise the threat level again.[1] In fact, Burgess pointed out that since the end of pandemic restrictions, the proportion of far right-linked cases shrank back to 30 percent of the agency’s caseload, rather than the earlier 50 percent.[2]
In an effort to crack down on far right groups, Australia in June announced a nation-wide clampdown on Nazi symbols, including banning the trade and public display of flags, T-shirts and insignia.[3] The ban was already in place in many states, and the year was dotted with cases as authorities sought to impose the ban in the states of Queensland[4] and Victoria.[5] In Victoria, the case was linked to a neo-Nazi leader who was on trial for assault and whose group of around 30 followers clashed with police outside court.[6] While Australia did not see any attacks in 2023, security chief Burgess declared that neo-Nazis have emerged “as one of the most challenging national security threats over the past year”. He also issued a warning about growing recruitment efforts by groups, amid a broader resurgence in far right activity.[7]
In Europe, the annual threat assessment provided by Europol provided a similar picture. The right-wing threat was reduced year-on-year (4 incidents and 45 arrests in 2023, compared to 6 incidents and 64 arrests in 2022).[8] The attacks that took place were all lone-actor incidents. In May, Dutch authorities released their annual assessment, stating while there were “likely a few hundred” extremists in Holland, “this number [did] not seem to have increased this past year”.[9] In Denmark, authorities said that their extreme right-wing threat remained “general”, similar to their European partners.[10] In the United Kingdom (UK), in November 2022, MI5 chief Ken McCallum provided his annual threat assessment shortly before a Parliamentary Committee published a report on the extreme right-wing threat faced by the country. McCallum’s view highlighted that the “landscape has continued to evolve away from structured, real-world groups such as National Action to a diffuse online threat”.[11] The “problem feels like it will endure”,[12] he stated, echoing Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee which went further by stating that the threat was “steadily increasing”.[13] Surveying the rest of the year, while the UK saw a steady drumbeat of arrests of varying levels of concern, attacks or a spike in arrests were not seen.
Within Europe, the most menacing picture was visible in Germany. Authorities there continued to arrest groups of individuals linked to the right-leaning Reichsburger, a major anti-institutional movement.[14] According to German authorities, there are some 23,000 followers in Germany, of whom around 1,250 are classified as “right-wing extremists”.[15] Highlighting how this threat has blended into the mainstream, a report published by the Frederich Ebert Foundation reported that perspectives on the far right in Germany have become more popular over the past year.[16] Authorities in Germany also added another group, the Hammerskins, to their list of proscribed organisations.[17]
Looking to attack planning, far right plotters in Finland were caught trying to build weapons using 3D printers, part of a trend that has been observable amongst the following around the world.[18] In the UK, two separate cases which appeared to indicate active attack planning were presented in court, one concerning a man who was caught making viable explosives at home,[19] and the other a man who was jailed for scouting a police station he had intended to target with an attack.[20] Other cases were identified across Europe to varying degrees of seriousness.
The final hub of extreme right-wing violence was the United States (US) and Canada. At an October 31, 2023 hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, the heads of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) spoke of how lone actors were the most likely threat vector that the country faced. They collectively also highlighted various extreme right-wing ideologies as possible sources of this threat. In his testimony, FBI Director Christopher Wray stated, “the top domestic terrorism threat we face continues to be from domestic violent extremists (DVEs) we categorise as Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (REMVEs) and Anti-Government or Anti-Authority Violent Extremists (AGAAVEs)”.[21]
Wray added that the number of FBI domestic terrorism investigations had more than doubled since the spring of 2020. As of September 2023, the FBI was “conducting approximately 2,700 investigations within the domestic terrorism program”.[22] According to Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of DHS, in 2022, 30 percent of “Historically Black Colleges and Universities” in the US had received bomb threats, representing a dramatic spike.[23] Across the border in Canada, in its April 2023 report on the country’s threat landscape, the Canadian Secret Intelligence Service (CSIS) reported that it had dedicated some 50 percent of its counter terrorism capability to dealing with “Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremism (IMVE)”.[24]
As of October 2023, the US was on course to see some 700 mass shootings.[25] Whilst ideological motivation was not clear in all of these, in some a clear white supremacist ideology was on display. Most graphically, in May 2023, a man murdered eight and injured half a dozen more in a mass shooting at a mall in Dallas.[26] At least eight violent incidents were linked to the extreme right in the US in the past year, according to data by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL),[27] and the issue continued to be the top priority for American law enforcement officials.[28]
The overall picture is of a threat that is constant, but that seems to have reached a metric plateau. No large-scale incidents like the 2019 massacre in New Zealand or 2011’s mass shooting in Oslo, Norway were reported, though a number of smaller, lone actor-style attacks were observed. None, however, appeared to have had the same global influential effect as the two earlier attacks.
Far Right More Mainstream, But With Caveats
The far right has made further strides in becoming politically more mainstream in Western Europe. This trend was picked up by multiple major publications in 2023, which noted the rise of the far right in national politics of various Western European countries.[29] In Italy, Sweden and Finland, far right political parties have become part of the ruling coalitions and governments.[30] The line between the far right and the political mainstream has blurred in Austria, France, Germany, Sweden and Spain.[31] In Germany, there are concerns that extreme right-wing views are becoming more widespread in society.[32]
These trends arguably point to the steady normalisation and acceptance of far right views and political ideas into the political mainstream, which could have implications for these governments’ relationship with extreme right-wing groups and civil society at large. There are also concerns that with the far right being more firmly part of ruling governments across Western Europe, the politics of these countries, and by extension the region, could alter significantly. Greater opposition to immigration, anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments and other conservative views championed by these parties could get reflected in the agendas of elected governments in these countries. This in turn could stoke violence.
In the US, the far right has had a close but complicated relationship with the Republican Party in recent years. But with former president Trump’s mounting legal woes and the Republican Party apparently not having a clear-cut candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election, it is hard to tell what kind of a political impact there will be vis-à-vis the far right. While former president Trump continues to poll ahead of all his contenders on the Republican ticket,[33] it is still unclear if he has a clear path to the White House. The impact of the extreme right also varies from state to state, with developments in some states giving rise to concerns of a rapidly growing extreme right threat. In the swing state of Michigan, for instance, there has reportedly been a rise in the extreme right-wing at the “grassroots” level since early 2022.[34] The US also saw the most anti-Semitic incidents in 2022 since the Anti-Defamation League started tracking such data in 1979.[35] This will likely be exacerbated by recent events in Israel.
At the same time, the legal troubles former president Trump faces reflect a pushback to this mainstreaming. And similar rejection has been visible elsewhere, for example in Poland, where the ruling far right Law and Justice Party suffered an electoral loss in October as Poles unified around an opposition that sought to reject the hardline conservative party that had ruled the country since 2015.[36] The impact on the extreme end of the political spectrum is difficult to predict. It was clear under Trump’s past administration, when many on the extreme edge in the US saw an opportunity to expand their influence and bolster their ideas – something that was also seen in Poland, where persecution of immigrant or LGBTQ+ minorities had become commonplace and even legalised. Whether the loss of these leaders and parties means people will now move back to the mainstream having watched the political rejection of their leaders, or feel themselves more marginalised and therefore needing to resort to violence, remains to be seen.
Transnational Links
Most worrying in some ways, however, has been the growing emergence of far right extremist ideas elsewhere. For example, neo-Nazism has been reported to be spreading in historically German areas of Brazil with greater adoption of Nazi symbolisms such as the Nazi salute.[37] In April, a court in Brazil issued a banning order for Telegram after the app failed to supply information about neo-Nazi groups operating on its platform which had been linked to a pair of school shootings in the country.[38] The ban was lifted soon afterwards, but the case highlighted the growth of anti-Semitic and extreme right-wing ideas in the country. The year in Brazil started with a storming of national buildings in the capital Brasilia as supporters of right-leaning politician Jair Bolsonaro sought to contest the election victory of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.[39] Bolsonaro himself appeared to have stepped aside from the protests, though the clash highlighted the tense nature of Brazil’s political spectrum.
At the other end of the scale, in Kyrgyzstan, a group of local youths shouting racial epithets and in possession of fascist imagery, attacked “Asian” looking Kyrgyz in Bishkek and Chuy.[40] Possibly inspired by Russian nationalists, the young men were detained, accused of seeking to foment racial, ethnic, religious and regional hatred.
The initial fear in Kyrgyzstan around this case was that it might be an offshoot of the war in Ukraine, where Russia continues to advance a narrative of fighting a fascist government in Kyiv. In fact, Moscow appears to be behind a range of far and extreme right political activity in Europe in particular.[41] Yet the Kyrgyz case seems isolated. In contrast, the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to be a rallying call for the extreme right-wing elsewhere, although the motivations and allegiances of the individuals and groups drawn to the conflict are complex. Some of those fighting for the Ukrainian side, such as football hooligan Denis Nikitin, belong to the Russian far right.[42] It was reported that 120 “ultra-right” individuals are among the “more than 320” French citizens and residents believed to have gone to fight the war in Ukraine, although their political allegiances and which side they support in the conflict are not apparent.[43] Extreme right individuals from Australia have also been identified as having joined the fighting.[44] There remains a persistent fear in Europe that eventually some of these individuals will return home and participate in terrorist activity, though so far no direct cases have been observed.
Outlook
What has become increasingly clear is the globalised nature of some aspects of the extreme right-wing and white supremacist movements in particular. In February 2023, the prominent founder of the American group Atomwaffen Division was charged with further offences in planning to attack infrastructure targets in the US. Information released alongside the case seemed to suggest he had been passing similar planning material along to Australian extremists.[45] In January, a British teenage extremist was jailed for publishing videos which had provided direct inspiration to at least two far right attacks in the US.[46] In June, a Scottish extremist linked to both the proscribed British group National Action as well as parallel extremist organisation Patriotic Alternative, was jailed, having been arrested in Spain from where he was running extremist networks.[47] In July, it was revealed that a school for children in the UK where conspiracy theories, anti-state ideas and weapons training were on the curriculum was being run by a pair who were linked to the British National Party (BNP) and had previously been involved in an Australian extreme right-wing organisation.[48]
These various international strands highlight how increasingly globalised the extreme right-wing has become. And while the year was not marked with as dramatic attacks as had been seen in the past, extreme right-wing ideas have continued to prosper and thrive. The international connectivity the networks supporting these ideas demonstrate provides an additional angle to the problem that has the potential to mature into a more substantial transnational threat. However, it is notable that the extreme right has not managed to deliver any major threats or attacks for some time. Still, the pull of mainstream far right ideas continues to be a problem, and is likely to become more complicated going forward, although how this may manifest into a terrorist threat is not always clear.
In fact, a more likely issue for the extreme right terrorist threat is its continued blending into a hybrid ideology, which security forces are increasingly talking about. The lines between ideologies have become increasingly confused, and, given most extreme right-wing adherents operate heavily in online communities, it is not always clear which ideology is most prominent in their thinking. This definitional issue is not a new one, but highlights another aspect of the complexity of trying to manage the current extreme right-wing globally. On the mainstream end of the spectrum, there is the danger of blending into mainstream thinking, while on the extreme end of the scale, it simply agglomerates into a mess of varying extremes online. This may seem like an esoteric concern, but it raises numerous questions at the political, judicial and response ends of the scale. Whilst clear-cut neo-Nazi adherents may be easy to respond to, this more confused picture is one that is harder to build a programme to counter.
About the Authors
Raffaello Pantucci is an Adjunct Senior Fellow and Kalicharan Veera Singam is a Senior Analyst at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. They can be reached at [email protected] and [email protected], respectively.
Citations
[1] “Director General’s Annual Threat Assessment,” Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), February 21, 2023, https://www.asio.gov.au/director-generals-annual-threat-assessment-2023.
[2] Stephen Dziedzic, “Right-Wing Terror Threat Has Receded As COVID Restrictions Have Eased, ASIO chief says,” ABC Australia, February 13, 2023, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-13/right-wing-terror-threat-declines-says-asio/101965964.
[3] “Australia To Introduce National Ban On Nazi Symbols,” BBC News, June 8, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-65840812.
[4] Dominic Cansdale, “Counter-Terrorism Police Charge Three Queensland Men Over Display of Nazi Symbols,” ABC Australia, January 19, 2023, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-19/queeensland-police-charge-men-over-display-of-nazi-symbols/101871804.
[5] Josh Taylor, “Victorian Neo-Nazis Under Police Investigation Over Alleged Salute for TV Cameras,” The Guardian, October 27, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/28/heil-hitler-victorian-neo-nazis-under-police-investigation-over-alleged-salute-for-tv-cameras.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Astha Rajvanshi, “Australia Is Banning Nazi Symbols to Curb the Far Right,” Time, June 14, 2023, https://time.com/6286524/australia-ban-nazi-symbols/.
[8] Europol, Te-Sat: European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2023 (Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2023), https://www.europol.europa.eu/publication-events/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2023-te-sat.
[9] “Threat Assessment NCTV: Terrorist Threat to the Netherlands Increased,” Government of the Netherlands, May 30, 2023, https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2023/05/30/threat-assessment-nctv-terrorist-threat-to-the-netherlands-increased.
[10] Charles Szumski, “Terror Threats in Denmark Take New Shape,” Euractiv, March 29, 2023, https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/terror-threats-in-denmark-take-new-shape/.
[11] “Director General Ken McCallum Gives Annual Threat Update,” MI5.GOV.UK, November 16, 2022, https://www.mi5.gov.uk/news/director-general-ken-mccallum-gives-annual-threat-update.
[12] Ibid
[13] Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism (London: The National Archives, 2022), https://isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/E02710035-HCP-Extreme-Right-Wing-Terrorism_Accessible.pdf.
[14] “Germany Arrests 5 Right-Wing Extremists Over Terror Plot,” Anadolu Ajansı, October 10, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-arrests-5-right-wing-extremists-over-terror-plot/3014687.
[15] Daniel H. Heinke (@daniel_heinke), “Federal Ministry of the Interior Released Data on #Reichsbürger (‚Reich citizens‘) ideology,” X, March 24, 2023, https://twitter.com/daniel_heinke/status/1639025822492155908?s=12.
[16] Kate Connolly, “Rightwing Extremist Views Increasingly Widespread in Germany, Study Finds,” The Guardian, September 21, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/rightwing-extremist-views-increasingly-widespread-in-germany-study-finds.
[17] Michael Ertl, “Germany Bans Neo-Nazi Group Hammerskins,” BBC News, September 19, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852067.
[18] Rueben Dass, “3D-Printed Weapons and the Far-Right: The Finnish Accelerationist Cell,” GNET, October 6, 2023, https://gnet-research.org/2023/10/06/3d-printed-weapons-and-the-far-right-the-2023-finnish-accelerationist-cell/.
[19] Vanessa Pearce, “Vaughn Dolphin: Far Right Extremist Sentenced Over Home Explosives,” BBC News, May 11, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-65559610.
[20] “Right-Wing Washington Terror Plotter Luke Skelton Jailed,” BBC News, July 11, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-66163679.
[21] “Threats to the Homeland,” Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC), October 31, 2023, https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Testimony-Wray-2023-10-31.pdf.
[22] Ibid. As of September 2023, the FBI was also conducting around 4,000 investigations centred around international terrorism.
[23] HSGAC, “Threats to the Homeland.”
[24] “Mission Focused: Addressing the Threat Environment,” Government of Canada, May 4, 2023, https://www.canada.ca/en/security-intelligence-service/corporate/publications/csis-public-report-2022/mission-focussed.html#1.1.5.
[25] Joseph Konig, “Maine Mass Shootings the Worst of 2023 as U.S. Is on Track for Roughly 700 This Year,” NY1, October 26, 2023, https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2023/10/26/lewiston-mass-shooting-worst-2023.
[26] Deon J. Hampton et al., “What We Know About the Slain Texas Mall Massacre Suspect, Mauricio Garcia,” NBC News, May 8, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mauricio-garcia-allen-texas-mall-shooting-suspect-what-know-rcna83242.
[27] “ADL H.E.A.T. Map,” Anti-Defamation League, https://www.adl.org/resources/tools-to-track-hate/heat-map.
[28] Laura Barrón-López and Saher Khan, “Far-Right Violence a Growing Threat and Law Enforcement’s Top Domestic Terrorism Concern,” PBS, September 5, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/far-right-violence-a-growing-threat-and-law-enforcements-top-domestic-terrorism-concern.
[29] Katya Adler, “Far-Right Parties on the Rise Across Europe,” BBC News, June 30, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66056375.
[30] Owen Jones, “Across Europe, the Far Right Is Rising. That It Seems Normal Is All the More Terrifying,” The Guardian, May 31, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/31/across-europe-the-far-right-is-rising-that-it-seems-normal-is-all-the-more-terrifying.
[31] Ibid.
[32] Connolly, “Rightwing Extremist Views Increasingly Widespread in Germany.”
[33] “Who’s Ahead in the National Polls,” FiveThirtyEight, November 3, 2023, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/.
[34] Cheyna Roth, “There’s More to Michigan’s New ‘Wokeness’ than Meets the Eye,” Slate, May 3, 2023, https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/05/michigan-blue-wave-republican-extremism-book-banning-kristina-karamo.html.
[35] “Antisemitic Incidents Rise to New High, Report Says,” The Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/antisemitic-incidents-rise-to-new-high-report-says-3687ca77.
[36] Jan Cienski, “Poland Election Results: Opposition Secures Win, Final Count Shows,” POLITICO Europe, October 17, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-election-results-opposition-donald-tusk-wins-final-count-civic-platform-pis/.
[37] Bryan Harris, “‘One People, One Reich’: Neo-Nazi Groups Spread in Brazil’s South,” The Financial Times, August 10, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/8e92c9c1-babf-4f4c-97dc-c6746cb51bf6.
[38] Samantha Pearson, “Brazilian Court Orders Suspension of Telegram over Neo-Nazi Groups,” The Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian-court-orders-suspension-of-telegram-over-neo-nazi-groups-be8f0b3c?st=edw0pbnbm9q9q2s.
[39] Rob Picheta, “The Violent Attack on Brazil’s Government was Months in the Making. Here’s What You Need to Know,” CNN, January 9, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/americas/brazil-congress-attack-explained-intl/index.html.
[40] “ГКНБ задержал членов подпольной националистической группы — они подростки,” AKIpress, August 2, 2023, https://svodka.akipress.org/news:1963144?from=portal&place=last.
[41] Raffaello Pantucci, “Russia’s Far-Right Campaign in Europe,” Lawfare, April 9, 2023, https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russias-far-right-campaign-europe.
[42] Shaun Walker, “Ukraine’s Awkward Allies: The Far-Right Russians Fighting on Kyiv’s Side,” The Guardian, September 21, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/ukraine-awkward-allies-far-right-russians-fighting-kyiv-side.
[43] Elise Vincent, “More than 320 French Citizens and Residents Have Gone to Fight in Ukraine Since the Start of the War,” Le Monde, June 30, 2023, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/06/30/more-than-320-french-citizens-and-residents-have-gone-to-fight-in-ukraine-since-the-start-of-the-war_6040276_7.html.
[44] Nick McKenzie and Anthony Galloway, “Senior Neo-Nazi Slips Out of Australia Hoping to Fight Russian Army,” The Sydney Morning Herald, March 22, 2023, https://www.smh.com.au/national/senior-neo-nazi-slips-out-of-australia-hoping-to-fight-russian-army-20230322-p5cudj.html.
[45] Joey Watson, “US Neo-Nazi Accused of Sniper Plot Appears to Have Shared Instructions with Australian Far-Right Figures,” The Guardian, April 16, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/17/us-neo-nazi-accused-of-sniper-plot-appears-to-have-shared-instructions-with-australian-far-right-figures.
[46] Josh Halliday, “UK Teenager Sentenced over Rar-Right Videos that Inspired US Killers,” The Guardian, January 27, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/27/uk-teenager-daniel-harris-sentenced-far-right-videos-us-killers.
[47] Billy Briggs, “Far Right Extremist with Patriotic Alternative Jailed for Terror Offences,” The Ferret, June 28, 2023, https://theferret.scot/far-right-extremist-patriotic-alternative-jailed/.
[48] Tom Ball, “Hope Sussex: Children’s Crossbow Lessons at ‘School for Conspiracists’,” The Times, July 17, 2023, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hope-sussex-childrens-crossbow-lessons-at-school-for-conspiracists-bxshtj7wp.
