Back
About RSIS
Introduction
Building the Foundations
Welcome Message
Board of Governors
Staff Profiles
Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
Dean’s Office
Management
Distinguished Fellows
Faculty and Research
Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
Visiting Fellows
Adjunct Fellows
Administrative Staff
Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
RSIS Endowment Fund
Endowed Professorships
Career Opportunities
Getting to RSIS
Research
Research Centres
Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
Research Programmes
National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
Future Issues and Technology Cluster
Research@RSIS Newsletter
Other Research
Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
Graduate Education
Graduate Programmes Office
Exchange Partners and Programmes
How to Apply
Financial Assistance
Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
RSIS Alumni
Alumni & Networks
Alumni
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
SRP Executive Programme
Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
Publications
RSIS Publications
Annual Reviews
Books
Bulletins and Newsletters
Commentaries
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
Commemorative / Event Reports
IDSS Paper
Interreligious Relations
Monographs
NTS Insight
Policy Reports
Working Papers
RSIS Publications for the Year
Glossary of Abbreviations
External Publications
Authored Books
Journal Articles
Edited Books
Chapters in Edited Books
Policy Reports
Working Papers
Op-Eds
External Publications for the Year
Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
Media
2024 Indonesia Elections
Great Powers
Sustainable Security
Other Resource Pages
Media Mentions
News Releases
Speeches
Video/Audio Channel
External Podcasts
Events
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University
  • About RSIS
      IntroductionBuilding the FoundationsWelcome MessageBoard of GovernorsHonours and Awards for RSIS Staff and StudentsRSIS Endowment FundEndowed ProfessorshipsCareer OpportunitiesGetting to RSIS
      Staff ProfilesExecutive Deputy Chairman’s OfficeDean’s OfficeManagementDistinguished FellowsFaculty and ResearchAssociate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research AnalystsVisiting FellowsAdjunct FellowsAdministrative Staff
  • Research
      Research CentresCentre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      Research ProgrammesNational Security Studies Programme (NSSP)Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      Future Issues and Technology ClusterResearch@RSIS Newsletter
      Other ResearchScience and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      Graduate Programmes OfficeExchange Partners and ProgrammesHow to Apply
      Financial AssistanceMeet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other eventsRSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      AlumniAsia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)SRP Executive ProgrammeTerrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      RSIS PublicationsAnnual ReviewsBooksBulletins and NewslettersCommentariesCounter Terrorist Trends and AnalysesCommemorative / Event ReportsIDSS PaperInterreligious RelationsMonographsNTS InsightPolicy ReportsWorking PapersRSIS Publications for the Year
      External PublicationsAuthored BooksJournal ArticlesEdited BooksChapters in Edited BooksPolicy ReportsWorking PapersOp-EdsExternal Publications for the Year
      Glossary of AbbreviationsPolicy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      2024 Indonesia ElectionsGreat PowersSustainable SecurityOther Resource PagesMedia Mentions
      News ReleasesSpeechesVideo/Audio ChannelExternal Podcasts
  • Events
    • Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
      rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
      rsis.sg
      RSIS
      RSS
      Subscribe to RSIS Publications
      Subscribe to RSIS Events

      Getting to RSIS

      Nanyang Technological University
      Block S4, Level B3,
      50 Nanyang Avenue,
      Singapore 639798

      Click here for direction to RSIS

      Get in Touch

    Connect
    Search
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO18085 | Thai General Election 2019: Regime Change or Consolidation?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO18085 | Thai General Election 2019: Regime Change or Consolidation?
    Antonio L Rappa

    21 May 2018

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha has announced that the general election will be held by February 2019 if three conditions are met. Why is Prayut demanding three conditions and to what extent will the GE result in political change or consolidation for the incumbent Thai junta?

    Commentary

    THE ROYAL Thai Armed Forces has played a central role in all previous general elections (GEs) since the 1932 coup. RTAF Supreme Commander Thanchaiyan Srisuwan reiterated the central role of the army and continues to support the political consolidation and public policies under Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha. While the self-appointed prime minister announced that he is not interested in retaining his position, the new pro-military Constitution virtually guarantees that he will be re-elected PM as long as 376 out of 750 Members of Parliament (MP) vote for him in the lower house election slated for early 2019.

    Prayut already controls the upper house given the fact that 200 senators had to be pre-approved by the junta. Prayut and his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan have sufficient MPs and senators to form a new political party. Without ruling out his own political future, the PM believes in three conditions for the GE to take place; with the caveat that the military will not tolerate any public demonstrations and political violence that is likely to occur once the election dates are fixed.

    Military’s Three Conditions

    The first condition is that all political parties have to support the role and function of the National Peace Keeping Council (NPKO) of which the prime minister is the Chairman. This situation is entrenched by the new pro-military Constitution that virtually guarantees that Prayut and his Cabinet have ministerial positions regardless of the political party that wins. However, the glitch is that a winning party with more than 375 MPs will be able to overturn the NPKO/junta’s stranglehold over the government and people of Thailand.

    The second condition laid out by the Thai PM is that the new election law that was changed in January 2018 will ensure that the political parties have sufficient preparation time. But both the Puea Thai and Democrat party spokesmen have argued that the law merely gives the NPKO more time to entrench its political power bases in Bangkok and other major cities of the kingdom.

    The amended election law is perceived by political scientists from Chulalongkorn University and Thammasat University to ensure that the NPKO and its network of supporters remain in a custodial position before, during and after the GE in 2019.

    Government-Military Relationship Still Strong

    The third condition that Prayut hinted at in 2017 and is expected to reiterate in May/June 2018 is a fair and balanced conduct of the general election. The PM’s genuineness was demonstrated in March when the Election Commission (EC) received 34 applications for political parties that seek approval to take part in the GE, the first time that the EC has been empowered since Prayut overthrew the democratically-elected Yingluck Shinawatra government in 2014 over the multi-billion baht rice-pledging scandal.

    A professor from Rangsit University told the press that the relationship between the government and the military remains very strong.

    A positive sign that democracy is alive is the participation of Thai Summit Group CEO Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Thammasat University law professor Piyabutr Sangkanokkul. Their Future Forward party criticised the coups in 2006 and 2014 military coups without directly mentioning Prayut.

    Two Possible Scenarios

    The consequences for Thai voters are clear. Firstly, there will be a clear win in the direction of the NPKO and the political party that it will back. Secondly, the likelihood of a military-supported putsch will only take place if the military fails to win a majority vote. Therefore, two scenarios are likely: the first is the consolidation of political power by the incumbents and the second the transformational changes to the military-backed junta to rejuvenate the old guard under Prayut.

    A third consequence that is very likely is that the balance of power will continue to shift toward the military leaders and away from the people. Nevertheless regardless of how powerful the NPKO/junta is today, they will still need the endorsement of Rama X, King Maha Vajiralongkorn to hold the election.

    About the Author

    Antonio L. Rappa is a Visiting Researcher at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Chulalongkorn University, Thailand and Associate Professor and Head, Management and Security Studies, School of Business, Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS) . He was previously an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and consults in Counterterrorism and Political Violence in Southeast Asia.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / South Asia / Southeast Asia and ASEAN

    Last updated on 22/05/2018

    comments powered by Disqus
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha has announced that the general election will be held by February 2019 if three conditions are met. Why is Prayut demanding three conditions and to what extent will the GE result in political change or consolidation for the incumbent Thai junta?

    Commentary

    THE ROYAL Thai Armed Forces has played a central role in all previous general elections (GEs) since the 1932 coup. RTAF Supreme Commander Thanchaiyan Srisuwan reiterated the central role of the army and continues to support the political consolidation and public policies under Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha. While the self-appointed prime minister announced that he is not interested in retaining his position, the new pro-military Constitution virtually guarantees that he will be re-elected PM as long as 376 out of 750 Members of Parliament (MP) vote for him in the lower house election slated for early 2019.

    Prayut already controls the upper house given the fact that 200 senators had to be pre-approved by the junta. Prayut and his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan have sufficient MPs and senators to form a new political party. Without ruling out his own political future, the PM believes in three conditions for the GE to take place; with the caveat that the military will not tolerate any public demonstrations and political violence that is likely to occur once the election dates are fixed.

    Military’s Three Conditions

    The first condition is that all political parties have to support the role and function of the National Peace Keeping Council (NPKO) of which the prime minister is the Chairman. This situation is entrenched by the new pro-military Constitution that virtually guarantees that Prayut and his Cabinet have ministerial positions regardless of the political party that wins. However, the glitch is that a winning party with more than 375 MPs will be able to overturn the NPKO/junta’s stranglehold over the government and people of Thailand.

    The second condition laid out by the Thai PM is that the new election law that was changed in January 2018 will ensure that the political parties have sufficient preparation time. But both the Puea Thai and Democrat party spokesmen have argued that the law merely gives the NPKO more time to entrench its political power bases in Bangkok and other major cities of the kingdom.

    The amended election law is perceived by political scientists from Chulalongkorn University and Thammasat University to ensure that the NPKO and its network of supporters remain in a custodial position before, during and after the GE in 2019.

    Government-Military Relationship Still Strong

    The third condition that Prayut hinted at in 2017 and is expected to reiterate in May/June 2018 is a fair and balanced conduct of the general election. The PM’s genuineness was demonstrated in March when the Election Commission (EC) received 34 applications for political parties that seek approval to take part in the GE, the first time that the EC has been empowered since Prayut overthrew the democratically-elected Yingluck Shinawatra government in 2014 over the multi-billion baht rice-pledging scandal.

    A professor from Rangsit University told the press that the relationship between the government and the military remains very strong.

    A positive sign that democracy is alive is the participation of Thai Summit Group CEO Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Thammasat University law professor Piyabutr Sangkanokkul. Their Future Forward party criticised the coups in 2006 and 2014 military coups without directly mentioning Prayut.

    Two Possible Scenarios

    The consequences for Thai voters are clear. Firstly, there will be a clear win in the direction of the NPKO and the political party that it will back. Secondly, the likelihood of a military-supported putsch will only take place if the military fails to win a majority vote. Therefore, two scenarios are likely: the first is the consolidation of political power by the incumbents and the second the transformational changes to the military-backed junta to rejuvenate the old guard under Prayut.

    A third consequence that is very likely is that the balance of power will continue to shift toward the military leaders and away from the people. Nevertheless regardless of how powerful the NPKO/junta is today, they will still need the endorsement of Rama X, King Maha Vajiralongkorn to hold the election.

    About the Author

    Antonio L. Rappa is a Visiting Researcher at the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Chulalongkorn University, Thailand and Associate Professor and Head, Management and Security Studies, School of Business, Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS) . He was previously an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore and consults in Counterterrorism and Political Violence in Southeast Asia.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies

    Last updated on 22/05/2018

    Popular Links

    About RSISResearch ProgrammesGraduate EducationPublicationsEventsAdmissionsCareersVideo/Audio ChannelRSIS Intranet

    Connect with Us

    rsis.ntu
    rsis_ntu
    rsisntu
    rsisvideocast
    school/rsis-ntu
    rsis.sg
    RSIS
    RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    Getting to RSIS

    Nanyang Technological University
    Block S4, Level B3,
    50 Nanyang Avenue,
    Singapore 639798

    Click here for direction to RSIS

    Get in Touch

      Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
      Privacy Statement / Terms of Use
      Help us improve

        Rate your experience with this website
        123456
        Not satisfiedVery satisfied
        What did you like?
        0/255 characters
        What can be improved?
        0/255 characters
        Your email
        Please enter a valid email.
        Thank you for your feedback.
        This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
        OK
        Latest Book
        more info