Synopsis

After the Sarawak state elections and the recently concluded by-elections in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar, momentum appears to have swung Barisan Nasional’s (BN) way. Has Prime Minister Najib Razak succeeded in regaining support, or are calls for snap elections premature?

Commentary

THE RECENTLY concluded by-elections in Kuala Kangsar, Perak and Sungai Besar, Selangor saw voters extend the mandate of Barisan Nasional (BN) Members of Parliament in a contest that was billed as crucial for various reasons, in the ever-changing spectrum of Malaysian politics. The election results saw BN sweep to victory with more than twice the number of votes in favour of the winning candidate compared to the opposition candidate in second place; this was a much improved margin from the slim victories in the 13th General Election in 2013.

Politics in the country has evolved significantly since then, with the emergence of political scandals, new parties, and old actors. Najib meanwhile, appears to have taken everything in his stride and seems to have ridden out the worst of his administration’s problems.

Wounded, but Increasingly Confident

Following the success of the Sarawak elections which saw BN win by a significant majority, Prime Minister Najib Razak has continued to ride the election wave to give his own popularity a boost while distracting from the many scandals and troubles that surround his administration

Just as in Kuching, Najib was front and centre at the victory announcements of the by-elections, which says less about the importance of the occasion and perhaps, more about the importance the Prime Minister has attributed to these successes. Amid perpetual calls for his resignation, Najib claiming this victory as his own may go some way to stave off criticism, if only on the surface

The backdrop to these by-elections has seen the emergence of new dynamics within Malaysian politics, namely the end of the opposition coalition linking PAS, PKR and DAP; the formation of the PAS splinter party Amanah; and its subsequent new coalition with DAP and PKR. PAS’ decision to strike out on their own following the ‘purge’ of progressive elements within their party has caused a massive reshuffling among the opposition

This has come at the same time that Tun Mahathir Mohamed has reappeared in the political scene, purportedly concerned with the damage Najib has done to the country and to the UMNO party, and openly calling for his resignation. Mahathir has not pulled his punches in attacking Najib, while additionally calling for a ‘Citizen’s Declaration’ alongside opposition leaders and former political enemies demanding his resignation.

The by-elections themselves saw a three-corner fight between BN, PAS and Amanah in both districts. This had the obvious effect of splitting the Malay electorate, with those who would regularly vote opposition now faced with two options, resulting in an overwhelming win for the BN candidate. PAS succeeded in retaining its core Malay support at the expense of Amanah, who garnered a greater portion of the Chinese vote. The  Chinese voters who swung back in favour of BN in the twin peninsular by-elections could have done so in reaction to the Islamism propagated by PAS.

Other factors contributed to their poor showing in the elections. A disorganised and disunited opposition hardly seems an attractive prospect, and this setup mirrors that of the recent Sarawak state elections. Opposition strategy focused on national issues such as 1MDB and other money scandals, along with the alleged lavish lifestyle of the prime minister’s wife.

Mahathir’s Setback

Just as in Sarawak, such federal matters hardly appealed to the local population who were more interested in having their own needs met. A lack of grassroots approach appealing to voter sentiment cost opposition parties dearly, especially when pitted against government machinery and their vast resources, and thus uncertain voters defaulted to BN. In the aftermath of the results, opposition leaders blamed intimidation, vote-buying and the ‘disease of materialism’, when the truth probably lies closer to home.

Mahathir on the other hand, has seen his own credibility take a blow. Campaigning on behalf of opposition candidates, Mahathir’s support left him vulnerable to attack from his former UMNO colleagues who duly spared him no quarter. Following the results, it can be considered that the former prime minister’s own influence is waning, with the local population more willing to believe UMNO in its present incarnation. Mahathir’s ‘Citizen’s Declaration’, much like the opposition focus on national issues, was seen as an urban concern that lacks grassroots legitimacy.

What should be clear to opposition parties is going it alone may not be sufficient to achieve victory. PAS undoubtedly needs the support of other parties, while PKR and Amanah are sure to recognise the damage three-corner fights have on their own chances. This was recognised recently by Amanah Deputy President Salahuddin Ayub, who is keen to reconcile with PAS.

Najib: Consolidating Power

Billed as a referendum against Najib by the opposition, the election and its results were instead seized by Najib as a sign of his continuing legitimacy. Despite political scandals and internal quarrels, BN has succeeded in regaining support in rural areas and among Malay voters, used by the prime minister to vindicate his leadership.

Meanwhile, the results are also telling of the opposition and their inability to provide a credible alternative. Snap elections may not guarantee Najib or UMNO’s safety but will surely work in their favour if the opposition is as disorganised as they have been during these recent examples.

A change of tack and a refocus on the people is required should the opposition aim to make further progress in the next general election. Najib meanwhile, would be wise to wait. With BN’s recent successes, Najib seems to have won a bit more time to consolidate his position. If the opposition continue to dither, Najib and BN’s position may well be strengthened come the next general election to be called by 2018.

About the Author

Rashaad Ali is a research analyst with the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.