• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO06128 | U.S. Policy in the Quicksand of the Middle East
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO06128 | U.S. Policy in the Quicksand of the Middle East
    Karim Douglas Crow

    20 December 2006

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    THE release of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report, amid a re-appraisal of U.S. strategy in Iraq and the Middle East now sweeping the corridors of power in Washington, purportedly signals a major turning point for American policy. Important realignments are simultaneously underway in key states of the region, prompted by the grave failure of American military strategy in Iraq.

    Elements of a ‘policy adjustment’

    President Bush is due to announce an adjustment in U.S. policy by early in the new year – yet several aspects have already become clear.

    There shall be no major or rapid withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq, while a temporary surge has not been ruled out;A fragile Baghdad government and its ineffective security forces shall be prompted to take the lead in fighting the swelling Sunni insurgency and jihadist terrorism, and in dampening spiraling Sunni–Shi‘a communal violence;A more robust training effort leading to the iraqization of security conditions by embedding U.S. support ‘advisors’ directly into Iraqi security units may be accelerated;A conditional phased redeployment over time of U.S. combat brigades may take place, probably by pulling back to bases outside urban areas and/or to U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain & Qatar;The White House and the State Department are still wedded to the isolation of Iran and Syria, despite growing momentum for a regional outreach drawing Iraq’s neighbours into a stabilizing engagement, and international pressure to end the Israel-Palestine conflict.

    The bottom line for U.S. policy remains the continued presence of American forces acting as an insurance policy for the territorial unity of Iraq. Whatever the new policy adjustments, they should not affect the essential network of at least four super-bases inside Iraq referred to currently as “contingency operating bases”. These include the giant Camp Anaconda or Balad Air Base 68 kms north of Baghdad, al-Asad Airbase still under construction in western Anbar province and the huge Camp Victory at Baghdad International Airport. As the co-chairman of the ISG Report James Baker III recognizes, there shall remain “…a really robust American troop presence in Iraq and the region for a very long time” – at least up to 2010 if not beyond.

    The policy reviews are accompanied by changes of key personnel: Secretary of Defence D. Rumsfeld is being replaced and several of his closest officials at the Pentagon are going, including Undersecretary of Defence for Intelligence Dr. Stephen Cambone. U.S. ambassador to Iraq Z. Khalilzad is stepping down; and the Bush administration will soon also replace its senior generals in Iraq, ground-forces commander W. Casey and Middle East regional commander J. Abizaid, with generals P. Chiarelli and D. Petraeus who served earlier tours-of-duty in Iraq – perhaps signaling more flexible counter-insurgency tactics.

    These changes cannot disguise the incompetence and misjudgements displayed by the U.S. civilian, military and intelligence leaderships. The military’s embedding and advisory support of Iraqi combat troops, for example, has until now been crippled by the deployment of junior officers with no previous combat experience often lacking proper cultural sensitivity and Arabic language competence. This little-reported situation bodes poorly for any expected benefit from increasing the number of such ‘advisors’. Similarly with America’s diplomatic presence in Baghdad, the ISG Report (p.92) observes: “Our embassy of 1000 has 33 Arabic speakers, just six of whom are at the level of fluency.”

    Why all the fuss?

    So why all the media fuss over the release of the ‘bi-partisan’ ISG Report? The Report is an exercise in damage control aiming to minimize the impact of failure in Iraq on the prevailing U.S. foreign policy status quo. It serves to deflect inquiry into the origins of this predicament: the flagrant manipulation and abuse of intelligence in the months leading up to the Iraq war; the utility of the Bush doctrine of preventive intervention; the feasibility of implanting democracy across the Islamic world; or the wisdom of an open-ended global war on terror. It provides cover for the U.S. Republican administration to adjust course in Iraq, and for a Democratic-controlled Congress to sign on and not to legislate any cut-off of funding for the war effort. American mainstream media coverage simply internalizes and promotes the basic worldview of the U.S. national security state.

    The invariable factor that interferes in the planning and conduct of U.S. foreign policy comes into play here: domestic political forces. The Democratic landslide in the Nov. 7th 2006 congressional elections has led Republicans to appreciate they may lose even more congressional seats as well as the presidency in 2008 if a significant U.S. troop presence remains amidst a vicious civil war in Iraq. The tension between President Bush and his own party for positioning in the 2008 elections shall most probably determine the timing of any possible scaling-down of American troops. Already one sees signs of the U.S. blaming Iraq for its own untenable predicament, and of the coming debate over ‘Who lost Iraq?’

    Quicksands

    The marked rise of violent conflicts throughout the wider Middle East is unprecedented in scope and intensity. These range from the continuing success of Sunni Arab insurgency inside Iraq (40% of American casualties since March 2003 are in Anbar province), to a resurgent Taliban in southern Afghanistan, to Hizbullah’s power grab seeking the downfall of Lebanon’s pro- U.S. anti-Syrian government, to an ascendant Iran projecting influence through the region and veiled threats by the U.S. or Israel to strike at Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. From this flux, a new status quo may eventually emerge, but acute birth-pangs could well result in a still-birth amidst bloody regional agony.

    The states directly affected by the expanding conflict inside Iraq are now prudently initiating their own efforts to contain these dangers with renewed commitment to Iraq’s territorial unity, realizing that the U.S. is incapable of effectively influencing events. Syria exchanges ambassadors with Iraq; Iraqi president Jalal Talabani visits Tehran; Turkish premier Erdogan visits Baghdad and then Damascus. A serious complication is the abrupt resignation of Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Prince Turki al-Faisal amid signs of internal disputes over the Kingdom’s Iraq policy, coupled with a provocative call by leading Wahhabi ulama for Sunni Arabs to actively oppose the rise of Iraqi Shi‘a power.

    Also significant are last week’s consultation by President Bush with Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, president of the pro-Iranian Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and leader of the ruling parliamentary coalition; then with Iraq’s vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.

    Over the coming years, the U.S. will have to learn to live with more strategic uncertainty, increased ambiguity and intensified violence in the Middle East, handicapped by its severely diminished reputation and capacity to influence the course of events. The U.S. military’s recognition that there is no military solution to the Iraq situation is healthy; whether the political leadership has absorbed this lesson is still uncertain.

    It will be difficult to mitigate the negative global repercussions of the most serious U.S. policy failure since Vietnam. Its reverberations will affect how rival powers such as Russia and China perceive and interact with the U.S. in a variety of spheres. America’s friends and allies must render it good counsel with compelling persuasion to help America salvage something positive from the shifting sands of the Middle East.

    About the Author

    Karim Douglas Crow is an Associate Professor with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University. 

    Categories: Commentaries / / Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Last updated on 03/10/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    THE release of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report, amid a re-appraisal of U.S. strategy in Iraq and the Middle East now sweeping the corridors of power in Washington, purportedly signals a major turning point for American policy. Important realignments are simultaneously underway in key states of the region, prompted by the grave failure of American military strategy in Iraq.

    Elements of a ‘policy adjustment’

    President Bush is due to announce an adjustment in U.S. policy by early in the new year – yet several aspects have already become clear.

    There shall be no major or rapid withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq, while a temporary surge has not been ruled out;A fragile Baghdad government and its ineffective security forces shall be prompted to take the lead in fighting the swelling Sunni insurgency and jihadist terrorism, and in dampening spiraling Sunni–Shi‘a communal violence;A more robust training effort leading to the iraqization of security conditions by embedding U.S. support ‘advisors’ directly into Iraqi security units may be accelerated;A conditional phased redeployment over time of U.S. combat brigades may take place, probably by pulling back to bases outside urban areas and/or to U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain & Qatar;The White House and the State Department are still wedded to the isolation of Iran and Syria, despite growing momentum for a regional outreach drawing Iraq’s neighbours into a stabilizing engagement, and international pressure to end the Israel-Palestine conflict.

    The bottom line for U.S. policy remains the continued presence of American forces acting as an insurance policy for the territorial unity of Iraq. Whatever the new policy adjustments, they should not affect the essential network of at least four super-bases inside Iraq referred to currently as “contingency operating bases”. These include the giant Camp Anaconda or Balad Air Base 68 kms north of Baghdad, al-Asad Airbase still under construction in western Anbar province and the huge Camp Victory at Baghdad International Airport. As the co-chairman of the ISG Report James Baker III recognizes, there shall remain “…a really robust American troop presence in Iraq and the region for a very long time” – at least up to 2010 if not beyond.

    The policy reviews are accompanied by changes of key personnel: Secretary of Defence D. Rumsfeld is being replaced and several of his closest officials at the Pentagon are going, including Undersecretary of Defence for Intelligence Dr. Stephen Cambone. U.S. ambassador to Iraq Z. Khalilzad is stepping down; and the Bush administration will soon also replace its senior generals in Iraq, ground-forces commander W. Casey and Middle East regional commander J. Abizaid, with generals P. Chiarelli and D. Petraeus who served earlier tours-of-duty in Iraq – perhaps signaling more flexible counter-insurgency tactics.

    These changes cannot disguise the incompetence and misjudgements displayed by the U.S. civilian, military and intelligence leaderships. The military’s embedding and advisory support of Iraqi combat troops, for example, has until now been crippled by the deployment of junior officers with no previous combat experience often lacking proper cultural sensitivity and Arabic language competence. This little-reported situation bodes poorly for any expected benefit from increasing the number of such ‘advisors’. Similarly with America’s diplomatic presence in Baghdad, the ISG Report (p.92) observes: “Our embassy of 1000 has 33 Arabic speakers, just six of whom are at the level of fluency.”

    Why all the fuss?

    So why all the media fuss over the release of the ‘bi-partisan’ ISG Report? The Report is an exercise in damage control aiming to minimize the impact of failure in Iraq on the prevailing U.S. foreign policy status quo. It serves to deflect inquiry into the origins of this predicament: the flagrant manipulation and abuse of intelligence in the months leading up to the Iraq war; the utility of the Bush doctrine of preventive intervention; the feasibility of implanting democracy across the Islamic world; or the wisdom of an open-ended global war on terror. It provides cover for the U.S. Republican administration to adjust course in Iraq, and for a Democratic-controlled Congress to sign on and not to legislate any cut-off of funding for the war effort. American mainstream media coverage simply internalizes and promotes the basic worldview of the U.S. national security state.

    The invariable factor that interferes in the planning and conduct of U.S. foreign policy comes into play here: domestic political forces. The Democratic landslide in the Nov. 7th 2006 congressional elections has led Republicans to appreciate they may lose even more congressional seats as well as the presidency in 2008 if a significant U.S. troop presence remains amidst a vicious civil war in Iraq. The tension between President Bush and his own party for positioning in the 2008 elections shall most probably determine the timing of any possible scaling-down of American troops. Already one sees signs of the U.S. blaming Iraq for its own untenable predicament, and of the coming debate over ‘Who lost Iraq?’

    Quicksands

    The marked rise of violent conflicts throughout the wider Middle East is unprecedented in scope and intensity. These range from the continuing success of Sunni Arab insurgency inside Iraq (40% of American casualties since March 2003 are in Anbar province), to a resurgent Taliban in southern Afghanistan, to Hizbullah’s power grab seeking the downfall of Lebanon’s pro- U.S. anti-Syrian government, to an ascendant Iran projecting influence through the region and veiled threats by the U.S. or Israel to strike at Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. From this flux, a new status quo may eventually emerge, but acute birth-pangs could well result in a still-birth amidst bloody regional agony.

    The states directly affected by the expanding conflict inside Iraq are now prudently initiating their own efforts to contain these dangers with renewed commitment to Iraq’s territorial unity, realizing that the U.S. is incapable of effectively influencing events. Syria exchanges ambassadors with Iraq; Iraqi president Jalal Talabani visits Tehran; Turkish premier Erdogan visits Baghdad and then Damascus. A serious complication is the abrupt resignation of Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Prince Turki al-Faisal amid signs of internal disputes over the Kingdom’s Iraq policy, coupled with a provocative call by leading Wahhabi ulama for Sunni Arabs to actively oppose the rise of Iraqi Shi‘a power.

    Also significant are last week’s consultation by President Bush with Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, president of the pro-Iranian Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and leader of the ruling parliamentary coalition; then with Iraq’s vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.

    Over the coming years, the U.S. will have to learn to live with more strategic uncertainty, increased ambiguity and intensified violence in the Middle East, handicapped by its severely diminished reputation and capacity to influence the course of events. The U.S. military’s recognition that there is no military solution to the Iraq situation is healthy; whether the political leadership has absorbed this lesson is still uncertain.

    It will be difficult to mitigate the negative global repercussions of the most serious U.S. policy failure since Vietnam. Its reverberations will affect how rival powers such as Russia and China perceive and interact with the U.S. in a variety of spheres. America’s friends and allies must render it good counsel with compelling persuasion to help America salvage something positive from the shifting sands of the Middle East.

    About the Author

    Karim Douglas Crow is an Associate Professor with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University. 

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 03/10/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO06128 | U.S. Policy in the Quicksand of the Middle East

    Commentary

    THE release of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report, amid a re-appraisal of U.S ...
    more info