• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO05008 | Iraq’s Historic Elections: Boon or Bane for Iraqis?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO05008 | Iraq’s Historic Elections: Boon or Bane for Iraqis?
    Bouchaib Silm

    18 February 2005

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    ON JANUARY 30, Iraqis went to the polls to choose a 275-member National Assembly. The new assembly will then select a prime minister and president by the end of this year. Around 7,500 candidates, from 75 parties and nine coalitions competed to be members of the National Assembly. The Iraqis, who had suffered under Saddam Hussein’s regime for more than two decades, found themselves between two hard choices. On the one hand, they faced pressures from militants to boycott the elections or risk more bloodshed. On the other hand, they faced the determination of the United States as the occupying power to proceed with the elections despite repeated calls for a delay from different groups who were worried that the elections would provoke more violence.

    The US wanted a massive turnout from the local population in the elections to legitimize its mission of introducing democracy in the country. But at the same time, the militants in Iraq appeared to be enjoying strong support from the people. Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda have officially appointed Abu Musaab Alzarqawi, the leader of the Qaeda al Jihad fibilladirrafidain (the Jihad base in the Land of the Two Rivers) to be the al Qaeda leader in Iraq. In a videotape aired last January, Osama had attacked the elections as a non-Islamic practice. “Anyone who takes part in these elections will be an infidel,” Osama said in the videotape. He described the elections as an American game that would only serve US interests in the region. He said he had no doubt that the incoming government would be a group of people endorsed by America to defend its policies in the Middle East. Osama called upon the Iraqis to “beware of henchmen who speak in the name of Islamic parties and groups who urge people to participate”.

    One may wonder whether the elections deserved the intense opposition that was mounted by the militants in Iraq. The elections will certainly not eliminate or remove the ethnic conflicts that Saddam Hussein had kept a tight lid on during his rule. In the absence of a central absolute power, these tensions or conflicts may find their way back after the elections – especially given the radical redistribution of power amongst the various ethnic groups in the country.

    Firstly, the Shi’as with 60 to 65 per cent of the population, have claimed their legitimate right to power after winning the majority through the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). Long treated as a minority under Saddam despite their dominant numbers, they are now preparing to politically dominate Iraq for the first time in a hundred years. Under the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Shi’as have won 48% of the votes. As this is just short of a two- thirds majority, the UIA may have to form an alliance, probably with the Kurds. The Shi’as nonetheless saw their victory as “a paradigm shift” in the history of this nation. Indeed, they have likened Iraq’s post-elections to the “birth of a new nation in a new region”.

    Secondly, the Kurds, comprising 19 per cent of the total population and supported by the US, have come in second with 26% of the votes. They have withstood the tortures and the years of marginalisation under Saddam’s rule. Led by Jalal Talabani, the Kurds are now contemplating taking the presidency in order to ensure their survival, protect their identity and prevent history from repeating itself.

    Thirdly, the Sunnis who make up 20 per cent of the population but had dominated politics under Saddam, have now become the political minority. Many of the Sunnis had boycotted the elections and will oppose any changes to the privileged status they enjoyed during Saddam’s time. But with only 12% of the votes, owing to widespread non-participation a change to their status is inevitable. Iyad Allawi, the current prime minister may lose his position as the Shi’as want to appoint one of their own.

    When a new prime minister and a new government are appointed, the US and the rest of the world will know whether going through Iraq’s historic elections will lead to peace or to a new round of instability.

    With a Shi’a government in Iraq, the big question is how the neighbouring countries will react to this fundamental change in the country’s political map. Relations between the Iraqi Shi’as and Iran – the only Shi’a government in the region – have not always been warm. How will a Shi’a-led government in Iraq be treated by Iran? Will it be seen first as Iraqi, or Iranian? On the other hand, will the Iraqi Shi’a leaders be loyal to Iran or to the Iraqi population?

    The elections may have been good for the Iraqis if the exercise is seen as part of a long process to reconcile and bring together the diverse ethnic groups in the country. But any vision that ignores the aspirations of Iraqis themselves will only lead to more bloodshed. The ordinary Iraqis are like any other citizens of the world. They want jobs, education and freedom. At the same time, they refuse to be used for the marketing of concepts like “democracy versus dictatorship” or “believers versus unbelievers”. Instead, they see themselves as the centre of gravity of any grand plan to rebuild their country whose voices must be heard.

    About the Author

    Bouchaib Silm is a research analyst with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: Commentaries / / Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Last updated on 02/10/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    ON JANUARY 30, Iraqis went to the polls to choose a 275-member National Assembly. The new assembly will then select a prime minister and president by the end of this year. Around 7,500 candidates, from 75 parties and nine coalitions competed to be members of the National Assembly. The Iraqis, who had suffered under Saddam Hussein’s regime for more than two decades, found themselves between two hard choices. On the one hand, they faced pressures from militants to boycott the elections or risk more bloodshed. On the other hand, they faced the determination of the United States as the occupying power to proceed with the elections despite repeated calls for a delay from different groups who were worried that the elections would provoke more violence.

    The US wanted a massive turnout from the local population in the elections to legitimize its mission of introducing democracy in the country. But at the same time, the militants in Iraq appeared to be enjoying strong support from the people. Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda have officially appointed Abu Musaab Alzarqawi, the leader of the Qaeda al Jihad fibilladirrafidain (the Jihad base in the Land of the Two Rivers) to be the al Qaeda leader in Iraq. In a videotape aired last January, Osama had attacked the elections as a non-Islamic practice. “Anyone who takes part in these elections will be an infidel,” Osama said in the videotape. He described the elections as an American game that would only serve US interests in the region. He said he had no doubt that the incoming government would be a group of people endorsed by America to defend its policies in the Middle East. Osama called upon the Iraqis to “beware of henchmen who speak in the name of Islamic parties and groups who urge people to participate”.

    One may wonder whether the elections deserved the intense opposition that was mounted by the militants in Iraq. The elections will certainly not eliminate or remove the ethnic conflicts that Saddam Hussein had kept a tight lid on during his rule. In the absence of a central absolute power, these tensions or conflicts may find their way back after the elections – especially given the radical redistribution of power amongst the various ethnic groups in the country.

    Firstly, the Shi’as with 60 to 65 per cent of the population, have claimed their legitimate right to power after winning the majority through the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). Long treated as a minority under Saddam despite their dominant numbers, they are now preparing to politically dominate Iraq for the first time in a hundred years. Under the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Shi’as have won 48% of the votes. As this is just short of a two- thirds majority, the UIA may have to form an alliance, probably with the Kurds. The Shi’as nonetheless saw their victory as “a paradigm shift” in the history of this nation. Indeed, they have likened Iraq’s post-elections to the “birth of a new nation in a new region”.

    Secondly, the Kurds, comprising 19 per cent of the total population and supported by the US, have come in second with 26% of the votes. They have withstood the tortures and the years of marginalisation under Saddam’s rule. Led by Jalal Talabani, the Kurds are now contemplating taking the presidency in order to ensure their survival, protect their identity and prevent history from repeating itself.

    Thirdly, the Sunnis who make up 20 per cent of the population but had dominated politics under Saddam, have now become the political minority. Many of the Sunnis had boycotted the elections and will oppose any changes to the privileged status they enjoyed during Saddam’s time. But with only 12% of the votes, owing to widespread non-participation a change to their status is inevitable. Iyad Allawi, the current prime minister may lose his position as the Shi’as want to appoint one of their own.

    When a new prime minister and a new government are appointed, the US and the rest of the world will know whether going through Iraq’s historic elections will lead to peace or to a new round of instability.

    With a Shi’a government in Iraq, the big question is how the neighbouring countries will react to this fundamental change in the country’s political map. Relations between the Iraqi Shi’as and Iran – the only Shi’a government in the region – have not always been warm. How will a Shi’a-led government in Iraq be treated by Iran? Will it be seen first as Iraqi, or Iranian? On the other hand, will the Iraqi Shi’a leaders be loyal to Iran or to the Iraqi population?

    The elections may have been good for the Iraqis if the exercise is seen as part of a long process to reconcile and bring together the diverse ethnic groups in the country. But any vision that ignores the aspirations of Iraqis themselves will only lead to more bloodshed. The ordinary Iraqis are like any other citizens of the world. They want jobs, education and freedom. At the same time, they refuse to be used for the marketing of concepts like “democracy versus dictatorship” or “believers versus unbelievers”. Instead, they see themselves as the centre of gravity of any grand plan to rebuild their country whose voices must be heard.

    About the Author

    Bouchaib Silm is a research analyst with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 02/10/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO05008 | Iraq’s Historic Elections: Boon or Bane for Iraqis?

    Commentary

    ON JANUARY 30, Iraqis went to the polls to choose a 275-member National Assemb ...
    more info