• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO13197 | Taliban Await US Withdrawal from Kabul
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO13197 | Taliban Await US Withdrawal from Kabul
    Sajjad Ashraf

    21 October 2013

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and President Hamid Karzai announced in Kabul last week that the two sides are close to a much-delayed deal on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). However many details remain to be finalised.

    Commentary

    THE ANNOUNCEMENT by United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Afghan President Hamid Karzai earlier this month that the two sides are close to a much-delayed deal on a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) raises hopes of a peaceful if hurried withdrawal of US forces from the war-torn country.

    If finalised, the BSA envisages a force of 5,000 to 10,000, which the US will leave behind while withdrawing the bulk of its forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2014. According to a US official accompanying Mr Kerry, the two countries “reached basic agreement on all key issues.”

    Guaranteeing Afghan security

    Notwithstanding the upbeat assessment of American officials, the issue of immunity from the Afghan law for the US troops remains, in the absence of which “there cannot be a bilateral security agreement,” said Mr. Kerry. Such a situation will compel the US to withdraw completely from Afghanistan. This will mean a similar European pull out and cut off of virtually all Coalition funding that meets roughly 80 per cent of Afghanistan government’s expense.

    The assembly of tribal elders (Loya Jirga) will now determine the immunity question. Since most of these elders are beneficiaries of the status quo and American largesse they are expected to go along with Mr. Karzai’s recommendation. The shrewd tactician he is, Mr Karzai, however, kept open his option to renege on commitments, claiming he has yet to examine small issues and technical points.

    The understanding became possible when the US conceded on its demand to conduct unilateral military operations after 2014. Guaranteed right to self-defence to the US troops in the immunity clause, if approved, may in some cases provide exceptions to the unilateral action clause.

    It is unclear how the US would satisfy the Afghan demand of guaranteeing security as if the country was a NATO ally. Such an undertaking, which Washington is unlikely to give, puts the US in direct conflict with Pakistan, in case it is determined that there was a cross-border connection to a security situation.

    Points to ponder

    There are several other points to ponder both for the US and President Karzai in attempting to negotiate this deal. For the US a sufficient residual force can provide security and stability while the bulk withdraws by the end of 2014. It also provides a face-saver for the only super power that it is just not walking away completely in defeat.

    For Mr. Karzai it is chance to prolong and hopefully preserve a system that he has created and on which his legacy depends. A BSA helps Mr. Karzai against the other power brokers amongst Northern Alliance, like Vice President Mohammad Fahim and Abdul Rashid Dostum who even run their own militias. While Mr. Karzai’s need to drive a hard bargain to placate the nationalist Afghans is understood, he risks being jettisoned if he is seen to be an impediment to an orderly US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    Even if the agreement is reached its implementation will be doubtful if US runs into a series of casualties in the lead up to withdrawal. The wary Congress and public pressure is likely to raise a storm, difficult to withstand for an already embattled President.

    While the Karzai regime survives only with foreign support, the presence of US forces will continue to provide the reason for the Afghan resistance groups, labeled contemptuously as Taliban, to rally Afghans against ‘foreign forces’. Drawing parallel with the Soviet-installed Najibullah regime, the constant worry is that the administration Karzai leaves behind will not even survive two years, which Najibullah’s did.

    The hastily raised Afghan National Security Force, expected to lead in post-2014 defence, is not getting into shape. With a desertion rate of 30 per cent, a third of the force is to be found anew and trained annually. The recruits owe loyalty to the tribe or the warlord instead of a central authority. By nature of its creation it is meant to help shore up a regime planted by a ‘foreign force,’ which the Afghans resist as a part of their culture.

    Converging interests of neighbours

    The Karzai-US announcement notwithstanding “continued military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 would justify the continuation of war and bring grave consequences,” warned Mullah Omar, the Taliban chief.

    A troubled Afghanistan means Pakistan, the most concerned neighbour, remains a loser if some US forces stay and resistance continues with its spillover into Pakistan or if the US withdraws completely leaving Afghans to slug it out amongst themselves.  This will mean ‘jihadis’ crossing over to help their comrades and hordes of refugees streaming to the Pakistani side.

    Notwithstanding the American motives, interests of all other neighbours – Iran, Russia, China and the Central Asian Republics – coincide to the extent that they all want to see a non-Taliban regime installed in Kabul. But since Taliban are the face of resistance against foreign presence in Afghanistan, they remain a formidable force.

    After the BSA, the US will need to immediately focus on arriving at an understanding with the Taliban. Afghanistan cannot return to peace without their participation.

    The final act in the Afghan drama is yet to begin…

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf is an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and an associate fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.  He was Pakistan High Commissioner to Singapore from 2004 to 2008.

    Categories: Commentaries /

    Last updated on 09/09/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and President Hamid Karzai announced in Kabul last week that the two sides are close to a much-delayed deal on the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). However many details remain to be finalised.

    Commentary

    THE ANNOUNCEMENT by United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Afghan President Hamid Karzai earlier this month that the two sides are close to a much-delayed deal on a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) raises hopes of a peaceful if hurried withdrawal of US forces from the war-torn country.

    If finalised, the BSA envisages a force of 5,000 to 10,000, which the US will leave behind while withdrawing the bulk of its forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2014. According to a US official accompanying Mr Kerry, the two countries “reached basic agreement on all key issues.”

    Guaranteeing Afghan security

    Notwithstanding the upbeat assessment of American officials, the issue of immunity from the Afghan law for the US troops remains, in the absence of which “there cannot be a bilateral security agreement,” said Mr. Kerry. Such a situation will compel the US to withdraw completely from Afghanistan. This will mean a similar European pull out and cut off of virtually all Coalition funding that meets roughly 80 per cent of Afghanistan government’s expense.

    The assembly of tribal elders (Loya Jirga) will now determine the immunity question. Since most of these elders are beneficiaries of the status quo and American largesse they are expected to go along with Mr. Karzai’s recommendation. The shrewd tactician he is, Mr Karzai, however, kept open his option to renege on commitments, claiming he has yet to examine small issues and technical points.

    The understanding became possible when the US conceded on its demand to conduct unilateral military operations after 2014. Guaranteed right to self-defence to the US troops in the immunity clause, if approved, may in some cases provide exceptions to the unilateral action clause.

    It is unclear how the US would satisfy the Afghan demand of guaranteeing security as if the country was a NATO ally. Such an undertaking, which Washington is unlikely to give, puts the US in direct conflict with Pakistan, in case it is determined that there was a cross-border connection to a security situation.

    Points to ponder

    There are several other points to ponder both for the US and President Karzai in attempting to negotiate this deal. For the US a sufficient residual force can provide security and stability while the bulk withdraws by the end of 2014. It also provides a face-saver for the only super power that it is just not walking away completely in defeat.

    For Mr. Karzai it is chance to prolong and hopefully preserve a system that he has created and on which his legacy depends. A BSA helps Mr. Karzai against the other power brokers amongst Northern Alliance, like Vice President Mohammad Fahim and Abdul Rashid Dostum who even run their own militias. While Mr. Karzai’s need to drive a hard bargain to placate the nationalist Afghans is understood, he risks being jettisoned if he is seen to be an impediment to an orderly US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

    Even if the agreement is reached its implementation will be doubtful if US runs into a series of casualties in the lead up to withdrawal. The wary Congress and public pressure is likely to raise a storm, difficult to withstand for an already embattled President.

    While the Karzai regime survives only with foreign support, the presence of US forces will continue to provide the reason for the Afghan resistance groups, labeled contemptuously as Taliban, to rally Afghans against ‘foreign forces’. Drawing parallel with the Soviet-installed Najibullah regime, the constant worry is that the administration Karzai leaves behind will not even survive two years, which Najibullah’s did.

    The hastily raised Afghan National Security Force, expected to lead in post-2014 defence, is not getting into shape. With a desertion rate of 30 per cent, a third of the force is to be found anew and trained annually. The recruits owe loyalty to the tribe or the warlord instead of a central authority. By nature of its creation it is meant to help shore up a regime planted by a ‘foreign force,’ which the Afghans resist as a part of their culture.

    Converging interests of neighbours

    The Karzai-US announcement notwithstanding “continued military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014 would justify the continuation of war and bring grave consequences,” warned Mullah Omar, the Taliban chief.

    A troubled Afghanistan means Pakistan, the most concerned neighbour, remains a loser if some US forces stay and resistance continues with its spillover into Pakistan or if the US withdraws completely leaving Afghans to slug it out amongst themselves.  This will mean ‘jihadis’ crossing over to help their comrades and hordes of refugees streaming to the Pakistani side.

    Notwithstanding the American motives, interests of all other neighbours – Iran, Russia, China and the Central Asian Republics – coincide to the extent that they all want to see a non-Taliban regime installed in Kabul. But since Taliban are the face of resistance against foreign presence in Afghanistan, they remain a formidable force.

    After the BSA, the US will need to immediately focus on arriving at an understanding with the Taliban. Afghanistan cannot return to peace without their participation.

    The final act in the Afghan drama is yet to begin…

    About the Author

    Sajjad Ashraf is an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore and an associate fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.  He was Pakistan High Commissioner to Singapore from 2004 to 2008.

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 09/09/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO13197 | Taliban Await US Withdrawal from Kabul

    Synopsis

    US Secretary of State John Kerry and President Hamid Karzai announced in Kabul last week that the two sides are close to ...
    more info