• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO12191 | After Bali: Southeast Asia Under Threat
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO12191 | After Bali: Southeast Asia Under Threat
    Rohan Gunaratna

    10 October 2012

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Southeast Asia was identified as the “Second Front” in the Global War on Terrorism, but the resolve of the ASEAN governments has kept the terrorist threat in check. However 10 years after Bali, extremism and terrorism continue to be driven by global developments.

    Commentary

    SINCE JEMAAH Islamiyah (JI)’s coordinated suicide attacks on Bali on 12 October 2002, the terrorist groups and extremist networks in Southeast Asia have been disrupted but not eliminated. The region has performed much better than South Asia, Middle East and Africa in keeping terrorism in check but more work needs to be done to degrade and dismantle the threat structures.

    The threat in Southeast Asia has neither declined nor plateaued. Nonetheless, security and intelligence cooperation and sustained counter terrorism operations by regional governments are keeping the terrorist threat under check. In the coming decade, governments working with Muslim community partners are likely to invest more in developing greater capabilities to rehabilitate terrorists and counter the terrorist message.

    The context

    The Al Qaeda-funded, JI-coordinated suicide bombings in Bali was one of the world’s deadliest terrorist attacks. On a global scale, less than a dozen terrorist attacks killed over 200 civilians. The attacks by Indonesian suicide bombers killed 202 – 164 were foreign nationals, including 88 Australians and 24 Britons – and maimed and injured 350 Indonesians and holidaymakers from 22 countries.

    The joint Al Qaeda-JI attack in Bali was to avenge the US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan. The attack was planned and prepared by Indonesian members of JI, almost all of them Afghan war veterans. The response of the Indonesian government supported by the Australian Federal Police, Australia’s intelligence community, and other governments was decisive.

    Post-Bali developments

    In the decade that followed, the Indonesian police, especially its counter terrorism tactical force, Detachment 88, killed and captured nearly 800 Indonesian terrorists and extremists. Furthermore, JI itself transformed into an ideological organisation and several new splinter groups emerged. They include a dozen operational groups of Al Qaeda in Indonesia such as Lashkar Hisbah, Tawhid Wal Jihad and Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT).

    Subsequently JI and JAT revisited Bali. Three JI suicide bombers attacked two sites in Bali on 1 October, 2005 killing 26 and injuring 126. Detachment 88 killed five JAT terrorists preparing to mount operations in Bali on 18 March, 2012.

    The counter terrorism efforts by Indonesia should be commended. Nonetheless, there is a need for greater political will to fight ideological extremism, the principal driver of terrorism in Southeast Asia. There is a need to arrest the radical preachers, fine the presses that print extremist books and literature, and deter those who threaten and support political violence.

    Although the Indonesian legal framework to fight operational terrorism is sound, the framework to fight the terrorists’ conceptual and support infrastructure is weak. As such, these threat groups are not legally banned, proscribed, or designated. They continue to disseminate propaganda, raise funds, procure supplies and conduct training, regenerating the next wave of terrorists and terrorism.

    Southeast Asia has done exceptionally well compared to the US-led Global War on Terrorism in South Asia (Pakistan-Afghanistan), the Middle East (Iraq-Yemen), and Africa (Somalia-Libya). Although the original Al Qaeda has been degraded and its founder Osama bin Laden killed, a dozen new al Qaedas have emerged, from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Today, the Taliban, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups on the Afghan-Pakistan border are biding their time for the US-led coalition to pull out of Afghanistan in 2014 before they reestablish their pre-2001 safe haven.

    The US invasion of Iraq triggered significant politicisation, radicalisation and mobilisation of Muslim communities. The US pulled out of Iraq without restoring law and order. After US and NATO intervention in Libya, the threat has percolated to the Sahel, destabilising Mali, Chad, Niger, Mauritania and even Nigeria. Although the situation in Yemen and Somalia has improved, terrorism and extremism remain a constant challenge.

    Current and Future Developments

    The impact of the Arab Spring on Southeast Asia was marginal. Unlike in the Middle East, the Arab Spring did not have an appreciable impact on Muslim countries in Asia where governments are relatively more democratic. Recently Asian Muslim politicians exercised restraint with regard to the release of the trailer “Innocence of the Muslims” which otherwise would have challenged regional harmony.

    However in future, like JAT, other threat groups are also likely to operate both underground and above ground. They will continue to infiltrate political parties, social groups and youth organisations and invest in the social media extensively to expand their support bases. Today, the writings of the radical Jordanian cleric Abu Mohamed al Maqdisi, the mentor of Abu Musab al Zarqawi of Iraq, are gaining popularity among the extremist and terrorist circles in the region.

    More violent and radical groups in Southeast Asia will fight against non-Muslims (“infidels”) and Muslims who do not share their belief (“apostates”). Driven by the false belief that the West is deliberately attacking Islam and killing Muslims, the terrorists attacked Western targets during the last decade. In the next decade, they are likely to expand attacks to include government targets, notably government officials especially judges and law enforcement, and politicians, including leaders. Extremist groups will campaign for replacing the democratic system of governance with Islamic law. More violent and radical groups will campaign for the imposition of Sharia law.

    The terrorist attack on Bali on 12 October, 2002 was a wakeup call for Southeast Asian governments. It demonstrated the severity of terrorism. Today, the governments are better prepared to fight terrorism and their leaders better understand the threat posed by ideological extremism.

    Today, extremism among Southeast Asian Muslims is not so much driven by domestic and regional developments as by global developments. For instance, the re-creation of Afghanistan as a terrorist sanctuary will have profound implications for the security and stability of Southeast Asia.

    More than ever before, the geostrategic developments in the Middle East and South Asia are influencing Muslim thinking. As such the threat of terrorism will not disappear from the Southeast Asian security landscape in the short term.

    About the Author

    Rohan Gunaratna is Professor of Security Studies and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University

    Categories: Commentaries / / Southeast Asia and ASEAN

    Last updated on 26/09/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Southeast Asia was identified as the “Second Front” in the Global War on Terrorism, but the resolve of the ASEAN governments has kept the terrorist threat in check. However 10 years after Bali, extremism and terrorism continue to be driven by global developments.

    Commentary

    SINCE JEMAAH Islamiyah (JI)’s coordinated suicide attacks on Bali on 12 October 2002, the terrorist groups and extremist networks in Southeast Asia have been disrupted but not eliminated. The region has performed much better than South Asia, Middle East and Africa in keeping terrorism in check but more work needs to be done to degrade and dismantle the threat structures.

    The threat in Southeast Asia has neither declined nor plateaued. Nonetheless, security and intelligence cooperation and sustained counter terrorism operations by regional governments are keeping the terrorist threat under check. In the coming decade, governments working with Muslim community partners are likely to invest more in developing greater capabilities to rehabilitate terrorists and counter the terrorist message.

    The context

    The Al Qaeda-funded, JI-coordinated suicide bombings in Bali was one of the world’s deadliest terrorist attacks. On a global scale, less than a dozen terrorist attacks killed over 200 civilians. The attacks by Indonesian suicide bombers killed 202 – 164 were foreign nationals, including 88 Australians and 24 Britons – and maimed and injured 350 Indonesians and holidaymakers from 22 countries.

    The joint Al Qaeda-JI attack in Bali was to avenge the US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan. The attack was planned and prepared by Indonesian members of JI, almost all of them Afghan war veterans. The response of the Indonesian government supported by the Australian Federal Police, Australia’s intelligence community, and other governments was decisive.

    Post-Bali developments

    In the decade that followed, the Indonesian police, especially its counter terrorism tactical force, Detachment 88, killed and captured nearly 800 Indonesian terrorists and extremists. Furthermore, JI itself transformed into an ideological organisation and several new splinter groups emerged. They include a dozen operational groups of Al Qaeda in Indonesia such as Lashkar Hisbah, Tawhid Wal Jihad and Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT).

    Subsequently JI and JAT revisited Bali. Three JI suicide bombers attacked two sites in Bali on 1 October, 2005 killing 26 and injuring 126. Detachment 88 killed five JAT terrorists preparing to mount operations in Bali on 18 March, 2012.

    The counter terrorism efforts by Indonesia should be commended. Nonetheless, there is a need for greater political will to fight ideological extremism, the principal driver of terrorism in Southeast Asia. There is a need to arrest the radical preachers, fine the presses that print extremist books and literature, and deter those who threaten and support political violence.

    Although the Indonesian legal framework to fight operational terrorism is sound, the framework to fight the terrorists’ conceptual and support infrastructure is weak. As such, these threat groups are not legally banned, proscribed, or designated. They continue to disseminate propaganda, raise funds, procure supplies and conduct training, regenerating the next wave of terrorists and terrorism.

    Southeast Asia has done exceptionally well compared to the US-led Global War on Terrorism in South Asia (Pakistan-Afghanistan), the Middle East (Iraq-Yemen), and Africa (Somalia-Libya). Although the original Al Qaeda has been degraded and its founder Osama bin Laden killed, a dozen new al Qaedas have emerged, from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Today, the Taliban, Al Qaeda and a dozen other groups on the Afghan-Pakistan border are biding their time for the US-led coalition to pull out of Afghanistan in 2014 before they reestablish their pre-2001 safe haven.

    The US invasion of Iraq triggered significant politicisation, radicalisation and mobilisation of Muslim communities. The US pulled out of Iraq without restoring law and order. After US and NATO intervention in Libya, the threat has percolated to the Sahel, destabilising Mali, Chad, Niger, Mauritania and even Nigeria. Although the situation in Yemen and Somalia has improved, terrorism and extremism remain a constant challenge.

    Current and Future Developments

    The impact of the Arab Spring on Southeast Asia was marginal. Unlike in the Middle East, the Arab Spring did not have an appreciable impact on Muslim countries in Asia where governments are relatively more democratic. Recently Asian Muslim politicians exercised restraint with regard to the release of the trailer “Innocence of the Muslims” which otherwise would have challenged regional harmony.

    However in future, like JAT, other threat groups are also likely to operate both underground and above ground. They will continue to infiltrate political parties, social groups and youth organisations and invest in the social media extensively to expand their support bases. Today, the writings of the radical Jordanian cleric Abu Mohamed al Maqdisi, the mentor of Abu Musab al Zarqawi of Iraq, are gaining popularity among the extremist and terrorist circles in the region.

    More violent and radical groups in Southeast Asia will fight against non-Muslims (“infidels”) and Muslims who do not share their belief (“apostates”). Driven by the false belief that the West is deliberately attacking Islam and killing Muslims, the terrorists attacked Western targets during the last decade. In the next decade, they are likely to expand attacks to include government targets, notably government officials especially judges and law enforcement, and politicians, including leaders. Extremist groups will campaign for replacing the democratic system of governance with Islamic law. More violent and radical groups will campaign for the imposition of Sharia law.

    The terrorist attack on Bali on 12 October, 2002 was a wakeup call for Southeast Asian governments. It demonstrated the severity of terrorism. Today, the governments are better prepared to fight terrorism and their leaders better understand the threat posed by ideological extremism.

    Today, extremism among Southeast Asian Muslims is not so much driven by domestic and regional developments as by global developments. For instance, the re-creation of Afghanistan as a terrorist sanctuary will have profound implications for the security and stability of Southeast Asia.

    More than ever before, the geostrategic developments in the Middle East and South Asia are influencing Muslim thinking. As such the threat of terrorism will not disappear from the Southeast Asian security landscape in the short term.

    About the Author

    Rohan Gunaratna is Professor of Security Studies and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 26/09/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO12191 | After Bali: Southeast Asia Under Threat

    Synopsis

    Southeast Asia was identified as the “Second Front” in the Global War on Terrori ...
    more info