• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO11148 | Indo-Afghan Strategic Treaty: Implications for Pakistan
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO11148 | Indo-Afghan Strategic Treaty: Implications for Pakistan
    Bibhu Prasad Routray

    14 October 2011

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    The Indo-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement signed on 4 October, unveils the congruence of US, Afghan and Indian end goals in the war torn country. It also has implications for Pakistani-Afghan relations.

    Commentary

    ON 4 OCTOBER, India and Afghanistan signed an Agreement of Strategic Partnership, promising a deepening of bilateral relations in politics, security, trade and economics. The agreement, which also covers Indian assistance in Afghanistan’s capacity development and education, signals India’s intent to stay engaged in the reconstruction of the war- torn country despite the challenges it faces from several quarters.

    With a commitment of US $1.2 billion through 2013 India is the sixth largest donor of Afghanistan. It has earned enormous goodwill from the Afghan population with an array of developmental projects – from a strategic highway to Kabul’s Parliament building to cold storages and medical missions – which have enlarged the reach of the government to the country’s provinces.

    Link to US Intentions

    The Indo-Afghan Agreement, in fact, goes beyond the development and humanitarian assistance. India is to also assist in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSFs). Both countries will hold regular strategic dialogues to intensify “mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security.” Two Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas; Afghanistan is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion.

    For years India has been accused of riding on the military efforts of the United States and the NATO countries to pursue its development agenda in Afghanistan. In spite of developmental aid and projects, India’s influence in that country remains extremely fragile and is tied to the presence of the international forces which guarantee the continuation of a democratic government. That fragility will continue even with the4 October Agreement unless it is supported by an Afghan-US strategic partnership.

    That partnership would guarantee an American force presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014, thereby precluding the possibility of a return of a Taliban regime to Kabul. Discussions on this agreement have been stalled by differences between both parties and also by domestic opposition within Afghanistan.

    But as US-Pakistan relations continue to deteriorate and the insurgents continue their violence, an Afghan-US understanding towards that effect is bound to be concluded sooner than later. The Obama administration will have to find a way to overcome domestic opposition to continued US engagement in Afghanistan.

    The ANSFs have taken up some security responsibilities in a few Afghan provinces. But they are unlikely to be relied upon to guarantee the country’s security against the insurgent blitzkrieg, certainly not by 2014, when the US force withdrawal is to be completed. To that extent, the Indo-Afghan Strategic partnership represents the broad convergence of Indian and American end goals in Afghanistan.

    India remains opposed to an arbitrary pullout of international forces from Afghanistan; it would welcome any institutionalised mechanism that guarantees a protracted stay of American forces beyond 2014.

    Pakistan’s Reactions

    A Pakistani journalist, Murtaza Razvi recently wrote: “The new nexus is now complete: while the US, Afghanistan and India will fight the Taliban, Pakistan would look for making peace with the Islamist militants.” In this context, it would have been almost inconceivable for Pakistan not to react negatively to the Indo-Afghan treaty, even though the Agreement mentioned specifically that it is not directed at any country or group of countries. Afghan President President Hamid Karzai also made it a point to refer to Pakistan as a “twin brother” while calling India a “great friend”.

    A day after the signing Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani averred that both India and Afghanistan “have the right to maintain bilateral relations as sovereign nations”. The spokesperson of its Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) called upon all states “in position of authority in Afghanistan” to “demonstrate requisite maturity and responsibility”. Nevertheless the 4 October Agreement has heightened Pakistan’s insecurities about being encircled by India from the east and west.

    Growing Congruence

    For India, Pakistan would always remain a challenge — a neighbour which has been out to prevent India from realising its ambitions in Afghanistan and Central Asia while also being a source of terrorism in India. In that context, the 4 October Agreement represents a will to go forward and not allow Pakistan to hold its strategic ambitions hostage. The progress, or the lack of it, in the continuing peace process with Pakistan can be delinked from the Indo-Afghan partnership.

    Similarly, for Afghanistan, the safe haven that the insurgents have in Pakistan’s tribal areas remains a major source of instability. Karzai has periodically displayed his willingness to negotiate with Pakistan to rein in the insurgents and also to start a process of reconciliation with the Taliban. But there are indications that Kabul might be getting tired of pursuing an unfruitful policy of placating Pakistan.

    The assassination of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, which Kabul alleged was planned in Pakistan, might have been the turning point. Kabul has already dumped its attempt of reconciliation with the Taliban by calling the process thus far “a joke”.

    For its part the Obama administration, still struggling to find ways to bring Pakistan on board, can use the Indo- Afghan Agreement as an additional pressure point on Islamabad — to be part of the Afghan stabilisation project or be left out in the cold as a trouble maker.

    About the Author

    Bibhu Prasad Routray is a Visiting Research Fellow in the South Asia programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He formerly served as a Deputy Director in India’s National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). 

    Categories: Commentaries /

    Last updated on 14/10/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    The Indo-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership Agreement signed on 4 October, unveils the congruence of US, Afghan and Indian end goals in the war torn country. It also has implications for Pakistani-Afghan relations.

    Commentary

    ON 4 OCTOBER, India and Afghanistan signed an Agreement of Strategic Partnership, promising a deepening of bilateral relations in politics, security, trade and economics. The agreement, which also covers Indian assistance in Afghanistan’s capacity development and education, signals India’s intent to stay engaged in the reconstruction of the war- torn country despite the challenges it faces from several quarters.

    With a commitment of US $1.2 billion through 2013 India is the sixth largest donor of Afghanistan. It has earned enormous goodwill from the Afghan population with an array of developmental projects – from a strategic highway to Kabul’s Parliament building to cold storages and medical missions – which have enlarged the reach of the government to the country’s provinces.

    Link to US Intentions

    The Indo-Afghan Agreement, in fact, goes beyond the development and humanitarian assistance. India is to also assist in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSFs). Both countries will hold regular strategic dialogues to intensify “mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security.” Two Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas; Afghanistan is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion.

    For years India has been accused of riding on the military efforts of the United States and the NATO countries to pursue its development agenda in Afghanistan. In spite of developmental aid and projects, India’s influence in that country remains extremely fragile and is tied to the presence of the international forces which guarantee the continuation of a democratic government. That fragility will continue even with the4 October Agreement unless it is supported by an Afghan-US strategic partnership.

    That partnership would guarantee an American force presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014, thereby precluding the possibility of a return of a Taliban regime to Kabul. Discussions on this agreement have been stalled by differences between both parties and also by domestic opposition within Afghanistan.

    But as US-Pakistan relations continue to deteriorate and the insurgents continue their violence, an Afghan-US understanding towards that effect is bound to be concluded sooner than later. The Obama administration will have to find a way to overcome domestic opposition to continued US engagement in Afghanistan.

    The ANSFs have taken up some security responsibilities in a few Afghan provinces. But they are unlikely to be relied upon to guarantee the country’s security against the insurgent blitzkrieg, certainly not by 2014, when the US force withdrawal is to be completed. To that extent, the Indo-Afghan Strategic partnership represents the broad convergence of Indian and American end goals in Afghanistan.

    India remains opposed to an arbitrary pullout of international forces from Afghanistan; it would welcome any institutionalised mechanism that guarantees a protracted stay of American forces beyond 2014.

    Pakistan’s Reactions

    A Pakistani journalist, Murtaza Razvi recently wrote: “The new nexus is now complete: while the US, Afghanistan and India will fight the Taliban, Pakistan would look for making peace with the Islamist militants.” In this context, it would have been almost inconceivable for Pakistan not to react negatively to the Indo-Afghan treaty, even though the Agreement mentioned specifically that it is not directed at any country or group of countries. Afghan President President Hamid Karzai also made it a point to refer to Pakistan as a “twin brother” while calling India a “great friend”.

    A day after the signing Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani averred that both India and Afghanistan “have the right to maintain bilateral relations as sovereign nations”. The spokesperson of its Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) called upon all states “in position of authority in Afghanistan” to “demonstrate requisite maturity and responsibility”. Nevertheless the 4 October Agreement has heightened Pakistan’s insecurities about being encircled by India from the east and west.

    Growing Congruence

    For India, Pakistan would always remain a challenge — a neighbour which has been out to prevent India from realising its ambitions in Afghanistan and Central Asia while also being a source of terrorism in India. In that context, the 4 October Agreement represents a will to go forward and not allow Pakistan to hold its strategic ambitions hostage. The progress, or the lack of it, in the continuing peace process with Pakistan can be delinked from the Indo-Afghan partnership.

    Similarly, for Afghanistan, the safe haven that the insurgents have in Pakistan’s tribal areas remains a major source of instability. Karzai has periodically displayed his willingness to negotiate with Pakistan to rein in the insurgents and also to start a process of reconciliation with the Taliban. But there are indications that Kabul might be getting tired of pursuing an unfruitful policy of placating Pakistan.

    The assassination of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani, which Kabul alleged was planned in Pakistan, might have been the turning point. Kabul has already dumped its attempt of reconciliation with the Taliban by calling the process thus far “a joke”.

    For its part the Obama administration, still struggling to find ways to bring Pakistan on board, can use the Indo- Afghan Agreement as an additional pressure point on Islamabad — to be part of the Afghan stabilisation project or be left out in the cold as a trouble maker.

    About the Author

    Bibhu Prasad Routray is a Visiting Research Fellow in the South Asia programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He formerly served as a Deputy Director in India’s National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). 

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 14/10/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO11148 | Indo-Afghan Strategic Treaty: Implications for Pakistan

    Synopsis

    more info