• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO10151 | Japan: Sidestepping the Arms Export Ban?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO10151 | Japan: Sidestepping the Arms Export Ban?
    Richard A. Bitzinger

    19 November 2010

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Japan’s centre-left government may decide to loosen the country’s decades-old ban on selling weapons overseas. While relaxing the ban is intended to aid the ailing domestic defence industry, it may end up having little real economic benefit.

    Commentary

    A CENTRE-LEFT government in Japan may soon do what 50 years of conservative rule never could: review and relax the country’s stringent ban on arms exports. In late August, a government advisory panel recommended that Tokyo drastically rethink its defence policy – including loosening its decades-old prohibition on selling weapons overseas.

    The Arms Ban and Japan’s Collapsing Arms Industry

    Why relax the arms export ban? The reason is simple: Japan’s defence industry is in its biggest slump since the country began to rearm in the 1950s. Military expenditures have been declining for at least a decade – from 4939 billion yen in 2002 to 4701 billion yen (US$50.4 billion or S$70 billion) in 2010. At the same time, the share of the defence budget going to arms procurement has fallen more than a quarter over the same timeframe. Only 17.5 percent of all defence-related expenditures now goes to buying equipment.

    As a result, Japan’s Self-Defence Force (SDF) is cutting procurement everywhere. Originally, the SDF had planned to buy 22 F-2 fighter planes between 2005 and 2009; this was subsequently cut to 18 aircraft, and the last F-2 was ordered in 2007. Plans to acquire eight new transport aircraft were zeroed out, while purchases of combat helicopters went from seven to four, other types of helicopters from 38 to 29, armoured vehicles from 104 to 96, and ship construction from 20 vessels to 17.

    The impact on the local arms industry has been nothing short of disastrous. Twenty Japanese companies engaged as subcontractors to the country’s fighter jet industry have already withdrawn from the defence production or plan to do so, including Sumitomo Electric, the country’s sole producer of nosecones for Japanese fighter aircraft. Thirteen firms that used to manufacture equipment or components for the ground forces have gone bankrupt since 2003, while another 35 companies have simply exited the defense business altogether.

    Are Arms Exports the Answer? Defence industries believe in arms exports like a drowning man believes in life-preservers. Few of the largest arms-producing countries do not depend heavily on overseas sales to keep their factories open and their production lines hot. Britain, France, Russia, and Israel export the bulk – in some cases, up to three-quarters or more – of their defence industrial output. Even the US defence industry, despites its huge domestic market, now produces many of its best-known weapons systems, such as the F-15 and F-16 fighters, solely for foreign customers.

    Obviously, Japan’s defence industry would like to ride that gravy train. At the same time, arms exports would seem to be a no-lose proposition for Tokyo – it would provide a much-needed injection of revenue into its ailing domestic arms industry and likely reduce the cost of weapons systems bought by the SDF. In fact, Japan has exported military equipment before. Back in the 1970s, Kawasaki sold eight “civilianised” KV-107 helicopters (a licensed-produced version of the Boeing CH-47) to the Swedish navy; these aircraft were then converted into anti-submarine warfare platforms. More recently, Japan donated three patrol boats to Indonesia for use in anti- piracy and anti-terrorism operations in the Malacca Strait.

    Additionally, the ban has been loosened in order to permit Japanese arms producers to cooperate with US defence firms when it comes to joint military R&D – for example, US-Japanese co-development of the SM-3 Block IIA antiballistic missile, which will be fitted onto both American and Japanese destroyers.

    The Best-Laid Plans…

    Japan’s arms export ban goes back to the “Three Principles on Arms Exports,” first promulgated in 1967. Technically, the ban is not law but rather a cabinet-level decision by the Japanese government not to sell arms overseas. A similar executive decision could conceivably overturn the embargo.

    At the same time, the arms ban has become such a part of the Japanese political landscape and the national “pacifist psyche” of the Japanese people as to make its outright repeal a near-impossibility. As with altering Article 9 of Japan’s constitution (which technically prohibits the country from possessing a military), there is little public interest – and, indeed, often much public and political opposition – in reconsidering the ban. Aside from the military and the defence industry itself, few in the country are willing to press this initiative.

    Even if the government does decide to loosen the arms embargo, the benefits are not automatically assured. Currently, Tokyo talks only of selling “non-lethal” equipment like the new P-1 maritime patrol aircraft or the C-2 cargo plane. This action already restricts Japanese efforts to sell military equipment; in particular, it does little to help the country’s beleaguered ground ordnance industry.

    Secondly, there are no guarantees of making any sales. Japanese military systems will be competing in a global arms market that is saturated with products and inundated with motivated sellers. Japan will be going up against long-standing suppliers like the United States, Britain, or Israel, who can offer battle-tested equipment with proven reliability. The Japanese will also be pressured when it comes to price, after-service support, and industrial incentives (such as offsets) – all areas where their competitors have much more experience.

    One area where the local industry may benefit is in the easing of defence industrial cooperation with the United States – such as in missile defence – and the subsequent re-export of any jointly developed weapons systems to third-party countries, most likely with the US taking the lead as the seller.

    Nevertheless, any future arms sales, should they materialise, could still be pretty thin gruel for Japan’s defence industry. Overall, the arms industry faces long-term challenges, both structural and financial, and a handful of arms exports are unlikely to fix these.

    About the Author

    Richard A. Bitzinger is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, attached to the Military Transformations Programme. Formerly with the RAND Corp. and the Defence Budget Project, he has been writing on military and defence industrial base issues for more than 20 years.

    Categories: Commentaries / / East Asia and Asia Pacific

    Last updated on 06/03/2018

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    Japan’s centre-left government may decide to loosen the country’s decades-old ban on selling weapons overseas. While relaxing the ban is intended to aid the ailing domestic defence industry, it may end up having little real economic benefit.

    Commentary

    A CENTRE-LEFT government in Japan may soon do what 50 years of conservative rule never could: review and relax the country’s stringent ban on arms exports. In late August, a government advisory panel recommended that Tokyo drastically rethink its defence policy – including loosening its decades-old prohibition on selling weapons overseas.

    The Arms Ban and Japan’s Collapsing Arms Industry

    Why relax the arms export ban? The reason is simple: Japan’s defence industry is in its biggest slump since the country began to rearm in the 1950s. Military expenditures have been declining for at least a decade – from 4939 billion yen in 2002 to 4701 billion yen (US$50.4 billion or S$70 billion) in 2010. At the same time, the share of the defence budget going to arms procurement has fallen more than a quarter over the same timeframe. Only 17.5 percent of all defence-related expenditures now goes to buying equipment.

    As a result, Japan’s Self-Defence Force (SDF) is cutting procurement everywhere. Originally, the SDF had planned to buy 22 F-2 fighter planes between 2005 and 2009; this was subsequently cut to 18 aircraft, and the last F-2 was ordered in 2007. Plans to acquire eight new transport aircraft were zeroed out, while purchases of combat helicopters went from seven to four, other types of helicopters from 38 to 29, armoured vehicles from 104 to 96, and ship construction from 20 vessels to 17.

    The impact on the local arms industry has been nothing short of disastrous. Twenty Japanese companies engaged as subcontractors to the country’s fighter jet industry have already withdrawn from the defence production or plan to do so, including Sumitomo Electric, the country’s sole producer of nosecones for Japanese fighter aircraft. Thirteen firms that used to manufacture equipment or components for the ground forces have gone bankrupt since 2003, while another 35 companies have simply exited the defense business altogether.

    Are Arms Exports the Answer? Defence industries believe in arms exports like a drowning man believes in life-preservers. Few of the largest arms-producing countries do not depend heavily on overseas sales to keep their factories open and their production lines hot. Britain, France, Russia, and Israel export the bulk – in some cases, up to three-quarters or more – of their defence industrial output. Even the US defence industry, despites its huge domestic market, now produces many of its best-known weapons systems, such as the F-15 and F-16 fighters, solely for foreign customers.

    Obviously, Japan’s defence industry would like to ride that gravy train. At the same time, arms exports would seem to be a no-lose proposition for Tokyo – it would provide a much-needed injection of revenue into its ailing domestic arms industry and likely reduce the cost of weapons systems bought by the SDF. In fact, Japan has exported military equipment before. Back in the 1970s, Kawasaki sold eight “civilianised” KV-107 helicopters (a licensed-produced version of the Boeing CH-47) to the Swedish navy; these aircraft were then converted into anti-submarine warfare platforms. More recently, Japan donated three patrol boats to Indonesia for use in anti- piracy and anti-terrorism operations in the Malacca Strait.

    Additionally, the ban has been loosened in order to permit Japanese arms producers to cooperate with US defence firms when it comes to joint military R&D – for example, US-Japanese co-development of the SM-3 Block IIA antiballistic missile, which will be fitted onto both American and Japanese destroyers.

    The Best-Laid Plans…

    Japan’s arms export ban goes back to the “Three Principles on Arms Exports,” first promulgated in 1967. Technically, the ban is not law but rather a cabinet-level decision by the Japanese government not to sell arms overseas. A similar executive decision could conceivably overturn the embargo.

    At the same time, the arms ban has become such a part of the Japanese political landscape and the national “pacifist psyche” of the Japanese people as to make its outright repeal a near-impossibility. As with altering Article 9 of Japan’s constitution (which technically prohibits the country from possessing a military), there is little public interest – and, indeed, often much public and political opposition – in reconsidering the ban. Aside from the military and the defence industry itself, few in the country are willing to press this initiative.

    Even if the government does decide to loosen the arms embargo, the benefits are not automatically assured. Currently, Tokyo talks only of selling “non-lethal” equipment like the new P-1 maritime patrol aircraft or the C-2 cargo plane. This action already restricts Japanese efforts to sell military equipment; in particular, it does little to help the country’s beleaguered ground ordnance industry.

    Secondly, there are no guarantees of making any sales. Japanese military systems will be competing in a global arms market that is saturated with products and inundated with motivated sellers. Japan will be going up against long-standing suppliers like the United States, Britain, or Israel, who can offer battle-tested equipment with proven reliability. The Japanese will also be pressured when it comes to price, after-service support, and industrial incentives (such as offsets) – all areas where their competitors have much more experience.

    One area where the local industry may benefit is in the easing of defence industrial cooperation with the United States – such as in missile defence – and the subsequent re-export of any jointly developed weapons systems to third-party countries, most likely with the US taking the lead as the seller.

    Nevertheless, any future arms sales, should they materialise, could still be pretty thin gruel for Japan’s defence industry. Overall, the arms industry faces long-term challenges, both structural and financial, and a handful of arms exports are unlikely to fix these.

    About the Author

    Richard A. Bitzinger is Senior Fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, attached to the Military Transformations Programme. Formerly with the RAND Corp. and the Defence Budget Project, he has been writing on military and defence industrial base issues for more than 20 years.

    Categories: Commentaries

    Last updated on 06/03/2018

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO10151 | Japan: Sidestepping the Arms Export Ban?

    Synopsis

    Japan’s centre-left government may decide to loosen the country’s decades-old ba ...
    more info