As countries build back better amidst the lingering impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the role of nuclear energy in helping countries to meet their energy needs and in addressing the ‘existential crisis’ of climate change has been highlighted. Post-COP26, countries have been attempting to show momentum to do more to decarbonise their economies and ride the green wave so as to attain net-zero emissions. Most recently, we were painfully reminded again how sensitive energy supply and prices are to geopolitical crises, pushing energy security to the forefront of global agenda. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) claimed that the climate crisis and the energy crisis have prompted more countries to look to nuclear power as part of the solution.

The IAEA has revised up its annual projections of the potential growth of nuclear power capacity by 2050. In its high case scenario, the Agency now sees global nuclear generating capacity more than doubling to 873 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, compared with current levels of around 390 GW.

The latest IAEA’s projections positioned nuclear power as a top low-carbon power source in the world’s transition to a more secure, stable and affordable energy future. But for this optimistic scenario to be achieved, a number of challenges need to be addressed, including regulatory and industrial harmonisation, social acceptance and progress in nuclear waste disposal.

Nuclear power for a low-carbon future?

Thirty-two countries operate nuclear power plants, which provide 10% of the world’s electricity and more than one quarter of all low-carbon electricity. The IAEA argued that the use of nuclear power has prevented the equivalent of around 70 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over the past 50 years.

It strongly recommended that nuclear power generation capacity will need to at least double over the next three decades in order to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For countries that are vigorously considering more low-carbon energy sources, including those in Southeast Asia that are actively studying this option, nuclear energy must not be completely ruled out as it can play a complementary role with other low-carbon sources such as renewables, creating a hybrid clean energy transition.

Advanced reactors as the future of nuclear energy?

Countries in Northeast Asia and South Asia with existing nuclear power plants and building new nuclear reactors are expected to ramp up the share of nuclear power in their respective electricity supply mix. Meanwhile, some Southeast Asian countries, such as the Philippines, are carefully contemplating whether to use nuclear power, particularly advanced small modular reactors (SMRs). According to the latest ASEAN Energy Outlook, nuclear energy may be introduced in the region, with 5.2 GW deployed by 2050, or around 1.6% of the power mix in Southeast Asia.

One viable option for Southeast Asian countries is to expand the role of nuclear energy in power generation through the use of advanced SMRs, including floating reactors. These can offer unique advantages (flexibility, cogeneration, hybrid systems with renewables) and will offer lower upfront costs that could widen access to nu-clear power. Traditional large-scale nuclear reactors are too expensive to build and advanced small reactor technologies may be an option. Advanced reactors may play a pivotal role in meeting climate goals in newcomer countries, which are interested in using nuclear energy for the first time. SMR technology is being developed in several countries such as the United States, South Korea, Russia, and China and may soon be deployed commercially in the coming years.

While advanced reactor technology has been quickly progressing, challenges to introducing SMRs are many. There is a need to assess whether existing global nuclear safety, security and non-proliferation conventions and regimes adequately cover SMRs. In this regard, Asia-Pacific countries should take leadership role in reshaping the governance of nuclear energy as advanced reactors may soon be deployed in the region.