25 July 2023
NTS Bulletin July 2023
Climate Change and Mobility: A Negative Consequence or a Form of Climate Adaption?
Migration is not a new phenomenon. As of mid-2020, there are an estimated 281 million people who are international migrants. Due in part to easier travel options and methods of communication with those at home, people are moving around the world more than ever before. Common reasons for migration include better livelihood opportunities, study opportunities, escaping persecution, and displacement as a result of conflict/disasters. With climate change steadily climbing the list of most pressing threats to humanity as seen in the 2023 Global Risks Report, it is therefore prudent to take into account its effect on drivers of migration. After all, climate change is acknowledged as not just a threat in and of itself, but also a significant “threat multiplier.” In other words, the current climate crisis is likely to increasingly shape patterns of migration by increasing insecurities caused by people’s vulnerabilities to its impacts. Not only is climate change triggering potential increases in displacement – both internally and internationally – through more direct impacts such as disasters, the indirect impacts of climate change in the form of deteriorating living conditions and livelihoods are taking its toll on communities as well. For example, as sea-level rise continues to increase, low-lying islands in the Pacific are likely to face increasing encroachment by the sea. This would render the homes inhabitable and livelihoods not sustainable, forcing their populations into permanent displacement in the future.
The statistics surrounding internally displaced people in particular are potentially an insight to what awaits in the future. As of end-2022, 71.1 million people worldwide are still internally displaced. Not only is this the highest number ever recorded, but it is also a staggering 20 percent increase since the previous year. In 2022 alone, 32.6 million people were internally displaced, with more than half
of these displacements triggered by disasters including the monsoon flooding in Pakistan and the drought in Somalia. As adverse impacts from climate change continue to intensify – as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report has clearly declared – so will the stress on humanity, particularly those who live and work in climate-exposed regions and sectors – in other words, most of humanity.
On the other hand, it is important to note that the link between climate change and mobility is still complex and cannot be simplified into a simple environmental determinism narrative. Rather than climate change being seen as the main cause behind a person’s mobility choices, it should be regarded as just one factor which should be considered together with the broader political, social and economic context – all of which play a part in such decisions.
As a “threat multiplier,” climate change is instead likely to multiply a person’s existing vulnerabilities and therefore, magnify their insecurity. For example, those living in rural areas may find that their ability to maintain their livelihoods degrade over time due to slow-onset environmental change in the form of drought together with environmental degradation as a result of resource exploitation. These insecurities may also exacerbate tensions in conflict-affected contexts. Once their ability to cope is outpaced by their insecurity, this may lead to a decision to migrate in search of better opportunities. In this case, migration is a tool that vulnerable communities can use to adapt to their insecurities – a form of climate adaption to the insecurities which have been amplified as a result of climate change.
Migration is not new. However, the causes, processes, and importantly, scale of migration as is taking place in the present day have not been seen in generations due to the ongoing climate crisis. In today’s interconnected world, climate change is clearly not just a threat in and of itself, but also in the ways in which it interacts with the economic, environmental, political and societal context – intensifying existing vulnerabilities and forcing a rise in insecurity. Migration therefore should not be just regarded as a negative consequence of the adverse impacts of climate change, but also a form of climate adaption.
Climate Change and Mobility: A Negative Consequence or a Form of Climate Adaption?
Migration is not a new phenomenon. As of mid-2020, there are an estimated 281 million people who are international migrants. Due in part to easier travel options and methods of communication with those at home, people are moving around the world more than ever before. Common reasons for migration include better livelihood opportunities, study opportunities, escaping persecution, and displacement as a result of conflict/disasters. With climate change steadily climbing the list of most pressing threats to humanity as seen in the 2023 Global Risks Report, it is therefore prudent to take into account its effect on drivers of migration. After all, climate change is acknowledged as not just a threat in and of itself, but also a significant “threat multiplier.” In other words, the current climate crisis is likely to increasingly shape patterns of migration by increasing insecurities caused by people’s vulnerabilities to its impacts. Not only is climate change triggering potential increases in displacement – both internally and internationally – through more direct impacts such as disasters, the indirect impacts of climate change in the form of deteriorating living conditions and livelihoods are taking its toll on communities as well. For example, as sea-level rise continues to increase, low-lying islands in the Pacific are likely to face increasing encroachment by the sea. This would render the homes inhabitable and livelihoods not sustainable, forcing their populations into permanent displacement in the future.
The statistics surrounding internally displaced people in particular are potentially an insight to what awaits in the future. As of end-2022, 71.1 million people worldwide are still internally displaced. Not only is this the highest number ever recorded, but it is also a staggering 20 percent increase since the previous year. In 2022 alone, 32.6 million people were internally displaced, with more than half
of these displacements triggered by disasters including the monsoon flooding in Pakistan and the drought in Somalia. As adverse impacts from climate change continue to intensify – as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report has clearly declared – so will the stress on humanity, particularly those who live and work in climate-exposed regions and sectors – in other words, most of humanity.
On the other hand, it is important to note that the link between climate change and mobility is still complex and cannot be simplified into a simple environmental determinism narrative. Rather than climate change being seen as the main cause behind a person’s mobility choices, it should be regarded as just one factor which should be considered together with the broader political, social and economic context – all of which play a part in such decisions.
As a “threat multiplier,” climate change is instead likely to multiply a person’s existing vulnerabilities and therefore, magnify their insecurity. For example, those living in rural areas may find that their ability to maintain their livelihoods degrade over time due to slow-onset environmental change in the form of drought together with environmental degradation as a result of resource exploitation. These insecurities may also exacerbate tensions in conflict-affected contexts. Once their ability to cope is outpaced by their insecurity, this may lead to a decision to migrate in search of better opportunities. In this case, migration is a tool that vulnerable communities can use to adapt to their insecurities – a form of climate adaption to the insecurities which have been amplified as a result of climate change.
Migration is not new. However, the causes, processes, and importantly, scale of migration as is taking place in the present day have not been seen in generations due to the ongoing climate crisis. In today’s interconnected world, climate change is clearly not just a threat in and of itself, but also in the ways in which it interacts with the economic, environmental, political and societal context – intensifying existing vulnerabilities and forcing a rise in insecurity. Migration therefore should not be just regarded as a negative consequence of the adverse impacts of climate change, but also a form of climate adaption.
