By The Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)
Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

WE usher in 2021 scarred by the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had in 2020 that cost millions of lives worldwide and resulted in a severe global economic recession. While we see light at the end of the tunnel with the rapid production and roll out of COVID-19 vaccines, the situation remains grim. We started 2021 much like in 2020—with lockdowns and border closures.

COVID-19 has indeed been the crisis of a generation. This makes the task of dealing with its severe and multidimensional consequences no less urgent as it is complex and challenging. Setting the agenda for recovery would first require a comprehensive account of the extent that COVID-19 has imperiled human security. One year since the pandemic outbreak, COVID-19 continues to rage, exacting a high toll on human life. To date, there are more than 100 million COVID-19 cases globally, with over 2 million deaths. These numbers are expected to grow as countries around the world grapple to contain the pandemic.

The economic impact of the pandemic has been devastating, with deep and long-lasting consequences. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), COVID-19 wiped out 81 million jobs in the Asia-Pacific, resulting in more people becoming impoverished. The World Bank reported a rise in global poverty in 2020, with 115 million more people falling into extreme poverty and is expected to grow 150 million in 2021. The severe economic downturn has also resulted in an increase in the number of people becoming food insecure. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020 noted that there were 100 million more undernourished people in 2020. This is on top of the estimated 135 million people already facing acute hunger pre-COVID-19, according to the Global Report on Food Crises 2020.

COVID-19 has raised critical questions about the prospects for human security and human development and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The Social Progress Index indicates that unless the impact of COVID-19 is mitigated, the realisation of SDGs will be pushed back more than 50 years to 2082. Aside from seriously setting back the SDGs of poverty reduction and zero hunger, the pandemic has further widened social and economic inequalities, created an education crisis, and hit the most vulnerable groups hardest – the poor, women, the youth, and the ethnic minorities. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) found that a third of the world’s school children – 463 million globally – were affected when the pandemic forced school closures and where remote learning was not possible.

Recovery therefore is going to be particularly difficult given the enormity of the challenges ahead. Although economic projections for 2021 reflect a rebound for Asia, much of positive forecasts put a lot of weigh on the production and rollout of vaccines. Yet, many developing countries in Asia, including Southeast Asia, have been disadvantaged by the ability of richer countries to reserve most of the initial supply of vaccines. This further aggravates inequality and further widens the gulf between rich and poor societies.

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for global solidary to ensure fair access to safe and effective vaccines for everyone, stressing that “no one is safe until all are safe”. He also urged the international community to turn the global crisis into an opportunity to transform the world, build back better, and speed up the transition to green energy while growing economies particularly those of developing countries. He further implored richer countries to help poorer ones that are severely affected by COVID -19 and the economic recession.

Indeed, while challenges persist in advancing global solidarity, the significance of regional cooperation cannot be ignored. In Asia, regional cooperation matters – providing the critical pathways in promoting international and multilateral cooperation. ASEAN and the ASEAN-led institutions like the ASEAN Plus Three and the East Asia Summit have proved to be important platforms in filling in the gaps in global health governance and helped build state capacity in containing the pandemic. Moving forward, regional cooperation will become even more crucial in dealing with the difficult tasks of economic recovery while ensuring a safer and more resilient environment.