On February 1st 2016, World Health Organization Director General, Dr. Margaret Chan declared an international public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on the Zika virus. She called Zika an “extraordinary event” that warranted coordinated international response to minimize the threat in affected countries and reduce the risk of international spread. To date, Zika has been documented in over 59 countries, and most recently in Vietnam, posing an imminent public health threat to Southeast Asia.

Zika, so what?

Zika can be sexually transmitted but it is primarily spread through the Aeges aegypti mosquito – the same mosquito carrying dengue, yellow fever, and chikungunya. However, other types of mosquitoes like the Aedes albopictus are believed to be contributing to the spread as well. Only a certain percentage of Zika-affected patients exhibit symptoms. Thus, it is a barely visible virus that is harmless to some but detrimental to others. Though not yet scientifically proven, doctors have asserted strong links between Zika, Guillan-Barre Syndrome, and microcephaly. This elusive virus will arguably have consequential risks to affected countries and the international community.

Political risk

At global level, Dr. Chan’s swift declaration of Zika as a PHEIC, framed the virus as a security risk that carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s borders. Moreover, declaring a PHEIC denotes a requirement for international action, encouraging states to work together to limit spread. The task at hand remains for international collaboration to not only contain the virus but to also develop a vaccine. Immediate action now, could counter the expected spread this El Niño year, as changes in climate will alter behaviors and lifespans of affected mosquitoes. Consequently, leaving humans more exposed to them.
At transnational level, not being able to address Zika may incur the political risk of hindered relations amongst neighboring states. Lack of coordination amongst porous landlocked nations may result in increased spread. Monitoring of borders and health checks at airports are merely two ways of tracking Zika.

Social risk

The biggest social risk brought on by Zika is to affected communities themselves. The outbreaks stemming from highly urbanized cities in Brazil started in marginalized communities or in the favelas jam-packed between the urban sprawl. In such areas, underprivileged populations have little education on disease, poor sanitation standards, and limited, if any access to contraception. Thus making such areas the perfect breeding grounds. Given this, already marginalized communities further risk disruption to their social landscape as Zika could virtually cripple the productivity of families. There is arguably a dire need for local and community-based organizations to tap in to such communities. A simple change in behavioral patterns such as wearing insect repellant and sleeping under mosquito nets could save lives.

Economic risk

Zika poses significant economic risks to the affected and their families. Raising children with microcephaly have escalating economic costs depending on the degree of severity of the disease. This is significant for poorer families who may find these costs impossible to bear. Moreover, studies show that caring for children with disabilities have made middle-income families significantly poorer. That said, caring for children with microcephaly would lead to substantial pressure on national healthcare systems that are already grappling with financial cutbacks. In estimating how much Zika will cost the international community, it is simply imperative to recall the words of Dr Chan: “The more we know, the worse things look”, and the worse things look, economic costs are likely to skyrocket.

Is Southeast Asia ready for Zika?

Since 2010, several cases of Zika have been recorded within ASEAN. However, with the first case in Vietnam this week, ASEAN nations need to be on high alert. The subtropical nature of ASEAN countries and its densely packed mega-cities make it an ideal area for Zika mosquitoes to thrive. Moreover, easy mobility and low travel restrictions within the region further promulgate the threat of spread of Zika.
ASEAN member states need to begin collaboration on Zika before an outbreak strikes. A statement from the Secretary-General framing the security threat of Zika to the region would kick start the collaborative effort and thereby mobilize the representatives in the ASEAN Working Group on Pandemic Preparedness and Response (APWGPPR).