Impact of Climate Change on Food Production: Options for Importing Countries

Abstract

The imperative of climate change adaptation for a resilient food system requires institutional, technological and economic transformation not only in food exporting but also food importing countries. Furthermore, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture and food sectors require costs that can lead to higher food prices from exporting countries, which may affect food consumers in all countries. Inaction and delays in mitigating and adapting to climate change can be catastrophic for food and agriculture.

Most of the studies on food systems under climate change are producer-centric. Adaptation policy in food and agricultural sectors need to be developed beyond unilateral efforts where every producing country resolves its own food affairs through self-sufficiency and/or trade. This RSIS policy brief identifies possible implications of climate change disturbances on crops and livestock in world production centers by 2030, 2050 and 2080. Policy recommendations for importing countries are discussed.

About the Authors

Paul P. S. Teng is Principal Officer at the National Institute of Education (NIE); and Senior Fellow (Food Security) at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. Prof Teng received his PhD from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. He did post-doctoral work at the Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands, under a Visiting Fellowship awarded by the Netherlands Government and has attended many short courses on management development and science communication. He has served as Dean, Office of Graduate Studies & Professional Learning from 1 November 2006 to 2014 and was also Head, Natural Sciences and Science Education (NSSE) Academic Group from 2004 to 2006.

Professor Tenghas over 20 years of experience on food security issues, having held positions at the WorldFish Center, Malaysia; the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI); and Monsanto Company.He has extensively researched the role of plant diseases in causing epidemics and crop losses in several continents, working cooperatively with a network of national programme scientists. The work has led to over 250 journal papers, eight books and numerous conference papers, and recognition by peer organisations. His pioneering work on using system analysis and computer modelling techniques to quantify and predict biological phenomena, and conduct risk assessments, is still having impact today in the USA and Asian rice growing countries. More recently, he has devoted his time to researching science communication and science entrepreneurship, under the umbrella of “Innovation and Enterprise” and to meet the needs of new economies. Prof Teng has won awards such as the Jakob Eriksson Prize in Plant Pathology in 1987, given by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences every five years to a scientist who has made significant contributions to solving plant disease problems affecting developing countries. He is a Fellow of the Third World Academy of Sciences and the American Phytopathological Society, and was co-recipient of the 2001 CGIAR Excellence in Science Award for Outstanding Scientific Article. He has also been cited in the 1996-1997 ‘Marquis Who’s Who’ in Science and Engineering.

Mely Caballero-Anthony is Associate Professor and Head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She previously served as the Director of External Relations at the ASEAN Secretariat and currently serves in the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters and Security. She is also Secretary-General of the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia) and is a member of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Agenda Council on Conflict Prevention.

Assoc Prof Caballero-Anthony’s research interests include regionalism and regional security in the Asia Pacific, multilateral security cooperation, politics and international relations in ASEAN, conflict prevention and management, as well as human security. She has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals on a broad range of security issues in the Asia Pacific. Her latest publications, both single-authored and co-edited, include: “Community Security: Human Security at 21” (Contemporary Politics, 2015), “Understanding ASEAN Centrality” (Pacific Review, 2014), “Human Security in ASEAN: 20 Years On” (Asian Journal of Peacebuilding,  2014), Non-Traditional Security in Asia:  Issues, Challenges and Framework for Action (ISEAS, 2013), Human Security and Climate Change in Southeast Asia: Managing Risk and Resilience (Routledge, 2013), “The Responsibility to Protect in Southeast Asia: Opening Up Spaces for Advancing Human Security” (Pacific Review, 2012), Energy and Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia (Springer, 2012), and Rethinking Energy Security in Asia: A Non-Traditional View of Human Security (Springer, 2012).

Jonatan A. Lassa is Research Fellow with the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore, where he researches on climate change, food security and (environmental) risk governance issues. Jonatan holds a PhD from the Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Bonn, Germany, and has studied Social Science and Interdisciplinarity at the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the Univeristy of Bonn. He also has an MSc in environment and International Development from the University of East Anglia, U.K. Prior to joining the Centre for NTS Studies, Jonatan was senior research fellow with the Institute of Resource Governance and Social Change (IRGSC). He has also previously served as a PhD researcher with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn (2007-2010) and as an Indonesian post-doctoral fellow at Ash Center, Harvard Kennedy School (2011). In his professional career, he has also worked with the UN, international NGOs and the private sector.

Goh Tian is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. She obtained an MSc in Asian Studies from RSIS and a Bachelor of Engineering from the National University of Singapore. She currently researches on climate change and food security. Before joining RSIS, she worked at the National Environment Agency where she represented Singapore at the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. She was also involved in policy development, the implementation of the Energy Conservation Act and the compilation of Singapore’s national greenhouse gas inventory.