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  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman's Office
        • Dean's Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
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        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
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      • Getting to RSIS
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        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
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        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
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  • NTS Insight (Mar 2011) | Applying the Ethnic Rebellion Model and Risk Assessment Model to Conflict in Myanmar
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NTS Insight (Mar 2011) | Applying the Ethnic Rebellion Model and Risk Assessment Model to Conflict in Myanmar
Lina Gong, Manpavan Kaur, Alistair D. B. Cook

11 March 2011

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Abstract

One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and applies two well-known models used for conflict and genocide risk assessments to test the impact of Myanmar’s Border Guard Force (BGF) policy on the ongoing internal ethnic conflict. The two models used are the Ethnic Rebellion Model (ERM) (Harff and Gurr, 1998) and the Risk Assessment Model (RAM) for Genocides or Politicides (Harff, 2003). The application of these models shows that the internal ethnic conflict is likely to continue and there exist trigger or accelerating factors for genocide to occur. While there is utility in applying these models, this NTS Insight also identifies some gaps in and challenges with these models, which need to be addressed if they are to become effective conflict and genocide prevention assessments.

Categories: NTS Insight / Non-Traditional Security

Last updated on 23/10/2018

Abstract

One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and applies two well-known models used for conflict and genocide risk assessments to test the impact of Myanmar’s Border Guard Force (BGF) policy on the ongoing internal ethnic conflict. The two models used are the Ethnic Rebellion Model (ERM) (Harff and Gurr, 1998) and the Risk Assessment Model (RAM) for Genocides or Politicides (Harff, 2003). The application of these models shows that the internal ethnic conflict is likely to continue and there exist trigger or accelerating factors for genocide to occur. While there is utility in applying these models, this NTS Insight also identifies some gaps in and challenges with these models, which need to be addressed if they are to become effective conflict and genocide prevention assessments.

Categories: NTS Insight / Non-Traditional Security

Last updated on 23/10/2018

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NTS Insight (Mar 2011) | Applying the Ethnic Rebellion Model and Risk Assessment Model to Conflict in Myanmar

Abstract

One of the salient policy recommendations for conflict and genocide prevention is the use of early warning models. This NTS Insight investigates and ap ...
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