CO10123 | Singapore Global Dialogue: Heated Start to Strategic Debates

The China Challenge

Former Chinese foreign minister Tang Jiaxuan set the ball rolling with an oblique aim at the United States and its allies when he urged all countries to abandon “a Cold War mentality” and “zero sum thinking”. Emphasising that a growing China would not seek hegemony, he said Beijing welcomed a US role in regional peace and stability. In the evolving regional architecture, China supports ASEAN’s central role and would like to see it remain in the driver’s seat. China, he said, was against the creation of new mechanisms for regional cooperation.

During question time, he went on the offensive, admonishing Japan for what he described as its inexplicable stance over the disputed Diaoyu / Senkaku islands with the detention of the Chinese captain. A Japan expert who had served as a diplomat in Tokyo, Mr Tang rebuked Japan for its “tough and unreasonable attitude”. Accusing it of harbouring “a special agenda”, he said Tokyo’s intention to charge the captain amounted to a formal challenge to China, leaving Beijing no choice but to react strongly.

On the same day, Japan surprisingly released the Chinese captain; this was promptly announced at the forum by former deputy foreign minister Hitoshi Tanaka. He described the incident as an “accident” arising from the political transition in Japan. Tokyo he added had no interest to make it an issue “because Japan effectively controls the islands”. That remark sparked a sharp rejoinder from another Chinese speaker, Major-General Zhu Chenghu, dean of the Defence Affairs Institute, the National Defence University of the People’s Liberation Army.

General Zhu reminded Mr Tanaka that the disputed islands were annexed by Japan during the Sino-Japanese War in 1894 and were to be returned to China in accordance with a post-war international agreement. To suggest that Tokyo controlled the islands was offensive to China, he said. Gen Zhu, who has a reputation for blunt-speaking, created a stir recently when he warned the US that any attack on China over Taiwan would invite a nuclear response.

The rise of China was also a key theme raised by former premier Howard and Finance Minister Shanmugaratnam. Mr Howard said China’s emergence should not be seen as a threat as Beijing desired peace for its economic progress. Mr Tharman saw China’s rise as a game-changer. China’s first game-changing impact was when it opened up in the 1980s and joined the global economy. China is now changing the international game again as it moved up the value chain, which will have wide-ranging repercussions on the global economy.

Transnational Threats

Transnational threats were another major challenge debated. There was broad consensus, Mr Tanaka said, that non-traditional security threats were emerging as a critical issue given their impact on economic prosperity and human security. Yet, greater coordination is lacking at the regional and international levels to respond to such issues. He proposed transnational threats as a major agenda for the East Asia Summit. The US and Russia could be invited to join to the EAS to address emerging global concerns such as energy security, disaster relief, piracy and counter-terrorism. In a keynote speech earlier, Singapore’s Law Minister and Second Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam spoke about the threat of jihadi terrorism in Southeast Asia.

Ramesh Thakur pushed for collective global action on non-traditional security issues such as climate change, terrorism and human security lest they provoked conflict and instability. Shashi Tharoor said new threats like climate change, poverty, famine and illiteracy make states insecure but they required new responses from the international system. Both Thakur and Tharoor were former senior UN officials.

Global Governance

But transnational threats cannot be addressed effectively without improving global governance. There was agreement that non-traditional security issues like climate change, natural disasters and pandemics needed effective governments to tackle them. Prominent Singapore thinker Tommy Koh said global problems like climate change urgently needed global solutions. Yet, speakers noted the growing crisis of confidence in global governance. A fundamental flaw of the UN Security Council, according to Professor Koh, was that members looked after their own national interests. Otherwise, he said, there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the primary institutions of global governance, such as the UN and the World Trade Organization. He was not, however, optimistic of the prospects of global governance, at least in the short term.