WP007 | Taiwan’s Future: Mongolia or Tibet?

Abstract

This paper analyzes how Taiwan’s future political intercourse with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) might look like, by presenting two scenarios – one with Taiwan moving toward formal independence from China, just as Mongolia had done, and the other with Taiwan being forcefully integrated into China, as in the case of Tibet. Considering the Taiwanese authorities’ unenthusiastic response so far to negotiating reunification with the PRC on its “One China” principle, and the ever-shortening patience of the PRC leadership, these two scenarios may not be as far-fetched as was once imagined to be. The different yet related developments of the PRC’s relations with Taiwan, Mongolia and Tibet, and their possible international implications, are also explored in the paper.