• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO06048 | Death of a Jihadi: Implications from the Death of Al-Zarqawi.
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO06048 | Death of a Jihadi: Implications from the Death of Al-Zarqawi.
    John Harrison

    12 June 2006

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    The death of Ayman Al-Zarqawi could not have come at a better time for the United States. The ongoing war in Iraq has created major domestic pressure on President Bush. The American public has largely maintained a negative view of the Bush Administration’s handling of the war in Iraq. Most prominently, the American public is of the view that the war is not being waged successfully and has little end in sight. In addition, the debate over pre-war intelligence continues on both the domestic – the indictment of Vice President’s former Chief of Staff for alleged crimes relating to the so-called Valerie Plume affair – and international front – the recent German intelligence leaks over their concerns over pre-war intelligence. The negative air hanging over the whole campaign makes the need for a victory all the more necessary to clear it.

    The death of the new face of Al-Qaeda, and perhaps some of his senior operatives, may provide just that required good news. Its implications for both US intelligence gathering in Iraq and the wider war are very interesting.

    Al Qaeda’s New Face

    Al-Zarqawi has been a rising star within Al-Qaeda circles since the late 1990s. While his original focus of interest was Jordan, he rose to international prominence during the run-up to the Iraq War when then Secretary of State Colin Powell mentioned him by name as a senior Al-Qaeda operative in Iraq during his UN Security Council briefing in 2003. Al-Zarqawi would then resurface shortly after the invasion leading the Al-Qaeda forces in Iraq. While the size of the force has always been a matter of dispute, the skill and dedication to the jihadi cause has not. His organization has been linked to kidnappings, beheadings, suicide operations, and sectarian attacks – all designed to plunge Iraq into a vicious civil war and to advance the objectives of jihad.

    There has long been a dispute over the nature of the relationship between Al-Zarqawi and the Al-Qaeda leadership. The letters exchanged between Al-Zawahiri and Al-Zarqawi have made for fascinating reading. While Al-Qaeda through Al-Zawahiri seem to be evolving a political strategy to complement the armed struggle – a political strategy that includes alliances with the Shia community – Al Zarqawi appears to be devoted to the more extremist view. This view rejects any political component to the struggle and views Shia in the same light as all other apostates. This lack of political sensitivity can be seen in Jordanian attacks by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the ham-fisted reaction to the outcry against them as well as Al-Zarqawi’s increasing isolation in Iraq due to his violent opposition to the electoral process. This uncharacteristic tone deafness has led to some armed clashes between the Sunni resistance in Iraq and Al-Zarqawi’s forces. The capstone in his isolation was his apparent removal as the leader of Jihadi forces in Iraq.

    Following these events, the reports on Al-Zarqawi throughout the last year have been intriguing. Earlier this year Al-Zarqawi barely escaped an air strike on a safe house and it was a few weeks ago that the alleged right hand man of Al-Zarqawi was killed in a raid on a safe house; a raid that Al-Zarqawi barley escaped. In the past the US has not launched a raid unless it had visual confirmation or “eyes on the target”. While operational necessities have most likely caused that standard operating procedure to be relaxed, the number of frequent and almost successful operations indicates there is increasing, accurate, and timely intelligence regarding his whereabouts. Certainly technical intelligence is providing some of this but at least some must have been provided by human sources.

    Winning the War?

    What does the above mean? In the long term, it may mean that the jihadi’s have overstayed their welcome. The extreme violence introduced by foreign fighters may have lead to a split with local fighters. Furthermore, the political strategy adopted by Al-Zawahiri may be widening this divide. Local Sunni resistance seems to be becoming more amenable to a political solution to the war and this may lead to the coalition’s long sought “exit strategy” emerging.

    The Sunnis, Iraqi Government, and coalition forces have all been sending signals towards this and most seem to agree that the foreign fighters do not represent any segment of Iraq. All parties also seem to have accepted long ago there can be no military solution. However, all parties have required time to see if the political process would be productive. As this appears to be the case, there may now be grounds for a settlement. The largest obstacle to this remains the jihadis. A small minority with a propensity for extreme violence can still delay the emerging peace process, and cause massive suffering.

    It seems clear that while intelligence on the Sunni insurgents will remain difficult and sporadic, the opposite may be true with respect to the foreign fighters. After all, the uninvited “brothers” do not share the same objectives as the local resistance, thus permitting an Iraqi providing intelligence on Al-Qaeda in Iraq to be free of any allegations of being a betrayer of Iraqi resistance.

    In the short term, removing the top two leaders in such a short period of time will have a significant impact on Al-Qaeda’s capacity to fight in Iraq. If nothing else, they will have to examine their operational security in light of the potentially changed environment. The subtle political changes in Iraq along with the egregious miscalculation of the attacks in Jordan will cause difficulties and some strategic reassessment. There in lies the paradox. Al-Zarqawi’s inability and unwillingness to calculate the political impact of his actions provide the most powerful counter tool to Al-Qaeda. His hatred for the Jordanian government blinded him to the potential consequences of the attack, and caused his ham-fisted spin. On a perverse level, he was more valuable alive then dead.

    About the Author

    John Harrison is a research fellow and manager of terrorism research at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: Commentaries / Terrorism Studies

    Last updated on 03/10/2014

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Commentary

    The death of Ayman Al-Zarqawi could not have come at a better time for the United States. The ongoing war in Iraq has created major domestic pressure on President Bush. The American public has largely maintained a negative view of the Bush Administration’s handling of the war in Iraq. Most prominently, the American public is of the view that the war is not being waged successfully and has little end in sight. In addition, the debate over pre-war intelligence continues on both the domestic – the indictment of Vice President’s former Chief of Staff for alleged crimes relating to the so-called Valerie Plume affair – and international front – the recent German intelligence leaks over their concerns over pre-war intelligence. The negative air hanging over the whole campaign makes the need for a victory all the more necessary to clear it.

    The death of the new face of Al-Qaeda, and perhaps some of his senior operatives, may provide just that required good news. Its implications for both US intelligence gathering in Iraq and the wider war are very interesting.

    Al Qaeda’s New Face

    Al-Zarqawi has been a rising star within Al-Qaeda circles since the late 1990s. While his original focus of interest was Jordan, he rose to international prominence during the run-up to the Iraq War when then Secretary of State Colin Powell mentioned him by name as a senior Al-Qaeda operative in Iraq during his UN Security Council briefing in 2003. Al-Zarqawi would then resurface shortly after the invasion leading the Al-Qaeda forces in Iraq. While the size of the force has always been a matter of dispute, the skill and dedication to the jihadi cause has not. His organization has been linked to kidnappings, beheadings, suicide operations, and sectarian attacks – all designed to plunge Iraq into a vicious civil war and to advance the objectives of jihad.

    There has long been a dispute over the nature of the relationship between Al-Zarqawi and the Al-Qaeda leadership. The letters exchanged between Al-Zawahiri and Al-Zarqawi have made for fascinating reading. While Al-Qaeda through Al-Zawahiri seem to be evolving a political strategy to complement the armed struggle – a political strategy that includes alliances with the Shia community – Al Zarqawi appears to be devoted to the more extremist view. This view rejects any political component to the struggle and views Shia in the same light as all other apostates. This lack of political sensitivity can be seen in Jordanian attacks by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the ham-fisted reaction to the outcry against them as well as Al-Zarqawi’s increasing isolation in Iraq due to his violent opposition to the electoral process. This uncharacteristic tone deafness has led to some armed clashes between the Sunni resistance in Iraq and Al-Zarqawi’s forces. The capstone in his isolation was his apparent removal as the leader of Jihadi forces in Iraq.

    Following these events, the reports on Al-Zarqawi throughout the last year have been intriguing. Earlier this year Al-Zarqawi barely escaped an air strike on a safe house and it was a few weeks ago that the alleged right hand man of Al-Zarqawi was killed in a raid on a safe house; a raid that Al-Zarqawi barley escaped. In the past the US has not launched a raid unless it had visual confirmation or “eyes on the target”. While operational necessities have most likely caused that standard operating procedure to be relaxed, the number of frequent and almost successful operations indicates there is increasing, accurate, and timely intelligence regarding his whereabouts. Certainly technical intelligence is providing some of this but at least some must have been provided by human sources.

    Winning the War?

    What does the above mean? In the long term, it may mean that the jihadi’s have overstayed their welcome. The extreme violence introduced by foreign fighters may have lead to a split with local fighters. Furthermore, the political strategy adopted by Al-Zawahiri may be widening this divide. Local Sunni resistance seems to be becoming more amenable to a political solution to the war and this may lead to the coalition’s long sought “exit strategy” emerging.

    The Sunnis, Iraqi Government, and coalition forces have all been sending signals towards this and most seem to agree that the foreign fighters do not represent any segment of Iraq. All parties also seem to have accepted long ago there can be no military solution. However, all parties have required time to see if the political process would be productive. As this appears to be the case, there may now be grounds for a settlement. The largest obstacle to this remains the jihadis. A small minority with a propensity for extreme violence can still delay the emerging peace process, and cause massive suffering.

    It seems clear that while intelligence on the Sunni insurgents will remain difficult and sporadic, the opposite may be true with respect to the foreign fighters. After all, the uninvited “brothers” do not share the same objectives as the local resistance, thus permitting an Iraqi providing intelligence on Al-Qaeda in Iraq to be free of any allegations of being a betrayer of Iraqi resistance.

    In the short term, removing the top two leaders in such a short period of time will have a significant impact on Al-Qaeda’s capacity to fight in Iraq. If nothing else, they will have to examine their operational security in light of the potentially changed environment. The subtle political changes in Iraq along with the egregious miscalculation of the attacks in Jordan will cause difficulties and some strategic reassessment. There in lies the paradox. Al-Zarqawi’s inability and unwillingness to calculate the political impact of his actions provide the most powerful counter tool to Al-Qaeda. His hatred for the Jordanian government blinded him to the potential consequences of the attack, and caused his ham-fisted spin. On a perverse level, he was more valuable alive then dead.

    About the Author

    John Harrison is a research fellow and manager of terrorism research at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

    Categories: Commentaries / Terrorism Studies

    Last updated on 03/10/2014

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO06048 | Death of a Jihadi: Implications from the Death of Al-Zarqawi.

    Commentary

    The death of Ayman Al-Zarqawi could not have come at a better time for the U ...
    more info