• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • Proxies and Drones: Can International Law Handle “Invisible Threats”?
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO20010 | Proxies and Drones: Can International Law Handle “Invisible Threats”?
    Joel Ng

    15 January 2020

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    SYNOPSIS

    The debate over the legality of Qassem Soleimani’s assassination misses an essential point: international law is not upheld by moral adherence, but by enlightened self-interest. However, current international law is not working for states given the diffusion of new threats such as drones and non-state proxies and needs rethinking.

    COMMENTARY

    DEBATE OVER the US assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani dominated the start of 2020. While talk of war is premature, there are clear challenges to international law (IL) that are at a confluence of new technologies, the diffusion of threats, and age-old principles like sovereignty.

    Debating the legality of the killing misses an essential point: IL is not upheld by moral imperative but enlightened self-interest. Problems arise when states do not feel that following IL is in their self-interests, despite the stigma associated with defying it. If enough states feel this way, systemic problems emerge but reform is needed, rather than pleading about the moral imperative to obey.

    “Invisible Threats” and International Law

    In 2012, Harvard law professor Gabriella Blum speculated about the emergence of “invisible threats”. In her description, she postulated a “drone assassin spider” capable of lethally poisoning a target then self-destructing, leaving no trace of the remote assassin.

    The idea was that “minidrones”, as she called them, could someday pose a new threat that existing security, legal, and political structures were incapable of regulating. As she noted, “the democratisation of threat makes it harder to connect attacks to their sources. Without such ability, no retaliatory, punitive, or even preventive action can be taken effectively, and must result in affecting too few potential perpetrators and too many innocent people”.

    The threat had already developed with transnational terrorism, but the “democratisation of threat” had already started using (technically) non-state actor proxies. Moreover, Iran’s capabilities may now be expanding with drone technology, demonstrated in the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil refineries. While Houthi Yemeni rebels claimed responsibility, this was rejected by US intelligence assessments, that directed the blame on Iran. Iran naturally denied the charges.

    Drones and Non-State Actors

    The US pioneered drone technology to deal with the non-state actors. Their effectiveness was not lost on their would-be targets. This spurred an arms race and regardless of who deployed drones against the Saudi refineries, the principle is clear:

    Drones offer remote capabilities with plausible deniability beyond the borders of a nation-state, similar to characteristics proxy groups have. Yet drones combined with formally non-state proxies effectively bypasses IL, with the defence of sovereignty to fall back on when the target state wishes to retaliate.

    While this is not to say the Soleimani assassination was retaliation for the attacks on Saudi installations, US President Donald Trump decided the most effective counter to these diffuse non-state security threats – loosely pointing towards Iran – is to cut the head off. Iran had effectively marshalled non-state actors, with the US stuck in a position of either fighting ineffectively against the proxies while remaining within the ambit of IL, or doing something more drastic leading to legal questions.

    Was Trump’s decision correct to stop the threat, or will it unleash a greater set of diffuse enemies to the West? The simple hope is that escalation would present a cost too great to Iran that it would pull back – indeed the death of Soleimani and the spectre of all-out war have likely reset its calculations about the costs of using non-state proxies. Its downing of the Ukrainian airliner PS752 shows other ricocheting costs are already hitting home.

    Gordian Knot or Hydra?

    However, to agree with the US, it would need reassurance that the US, which Iran accuses of violating IL, would abide by it in the future. As reports indicate, Iran has instead resumed its nuclear arms programme for more concrete deterrence – an action contrary to US security goals, and which requires a US response. The tit-for-tat cycle is both costly and risky, which is why states have come to prefer international agreements.

    From the US’ point of view, non-state proxies also render legal agreements ineffective: Iran can commit to something while its proxies continue to thwart US interests. Moreover, the doctrinaire commitment to “non-interference” by authoritarian states has made the pursuit of security across borders virtually impossible when consent is not given.

    If the other nation refuses to cooperate, the would-be enforcer faces a choice: bypass that nation’s consent to take out the threat (the US did this in Pakistan with the assassination of Osama Bin Laden), or leave it at the mercy of the other state (the US did this with Bin Laden in Sudan in the 1990s). The first choice violates the other state’s sovereignty to reinforce the initiating state’s self-protection, while the latter upholds international rule of law at the cost of the vitiating state’s right to protect itself. Whatever the decision, one state will be upset.

    Can International Law Reassert Itself?

    IL has always been governed by mutual consent – that states see it in their best interests to play by the rules for mutual security because the costs of defection are too high. The problem is that there is no effective legal way to deal with diffuse “invisible” threats right now, which means the underlying glue of mutual consent is breaking apart.

    Yet a rules-based order is much less risky and cheaper than arms races and proxy wars. This is critical because the drone technology race is taking place. The plausible deniability, accurate delivery of payload, and other features make it a preferred weapon and their capabilities are expanding. The costs of tit-for-tat can be better absorbed by the greater power, but it will suffer greater costs in absolute terms.

    Today, several regional powers are trying to pursue security objectives abroad unilaterally. Each eats away at the international rules-based system whenever they make an exception for themselves, yet feel justified because the current rules do not offer them satisfactory choices. However, the costs will be great and the risks greater still if they unravel the system, which was created precisely because states had suffered those costs in the past.

    Moreover, history tells us that where actors are deeply ideologically-committed, it will take a long and costly experience – or leadership change – to recognise the need to right the course and reconstruct a new rules-based order. Thus, a new regime that can deal effectively with “invisible threats” must be found before more parts of the system break down.

    About the Author

    Dr Joel Ng is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security / East Asia and Asia Pacific / Global / Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

    Last updated on 09/07/2020

    comments powered by Disqus
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    SYNOPSIS

    The debate over the legality of Qassem Soleimani’s assassination misses an essential point: international law is not upheld by moral adherence, but by enlightened self-interest. However, current international law is not working for states given the diffusion of new threats such as drones and non-state proxies and needs rethinking.

    COMMENTARY

    DEBATE OVER the US assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani dominated the start of 2020. While talk of war is premature, there are clear challenges to international law (IL) that are at a confluence of new technologies, the diffusion of threats, and age-old principles like sovereignty.

    Debating the legality of the killing misses an essential point: IL is not upheld by moral imperative but enlightened self-interest. Problems arise when states do not feel that following IL is in their self-interests, despite the stigma associated with defying it. If enough states feel this way, systemic problems emerge but reform is needed, rather than pleading about the moral imperative to obey.

    “Invisible Threats” and International Law

    In 2012, Harvard law professor Gabriella Blum speculated about the emergence of “invisible threats”. In her description, she postulated a “drone assassin spider” capable of lethally poisoning a target then self-destructing, leaving no trace of the remote assassin.

    The idea was that “minidrones”, as she called them, could someday pose a new threat that existing security, legal, and political structures were incapable of regulating. As she noted, “the democratisation of threat makes it harder to connect attacks to their sources. Without such ability, no retaliatory, punitive, or even preventive action can be taken effectively, and must result in affecting too few potential perpetrators and too many innocent people”.

    The threat had already developed with transnational terrorism, but the “democratisation of threat” had already started using (technically) non-state actor proxies. Moreover, Iran’s capabilities may now be expanding with drone technology, demonstrated in the September 2019 attack on Saudi oil refineries. While Houthi Yemeni rebels claimed responsibility, this was rejected by US intelligence assessments, that directed the blame on Iran. Iran naturally denied the charges.

    Drones and Non-State Actors

    The US pioneered drone technology to deal with the non-state actors. Their effectiveness was not lost on their would-be targets. This spurred an arms race and regardless of who deployed drones against the Saudi refineries, the principle is clear:

    Drones offer remote capabilities with plausible deniability beyond the borders of a nation-state, similar to characteristics proxy groups have. Yet drones combined with formally non-state proxies effectively bypasses IL, with the defence of sovereignty to fall back on when the target state wishes to retaliate.

    While this is not to say the Soleimani assassination was retaliation for the attacks on Saudi installations, US President Donald Trump decided the most effective counter to these diffuse non-state security threats – loosely pointing towards Iran – is to cut the head off. Iran had effectively marshalled non-state actors, with the US stuck in a position of either fighting ineffectively against the proxies while remaining within the ambit of IL, or doing something more drastic leading to legal questions.

    Was Trump’s decision correct to stop the threat, or will it unleash a greater set of diffuse enemies to the West? The simple hope is that escalation would present a cost too great to Iran that it would pull back – indeed the death of Soleimani and the spectre of all-out war have likely reset its calculations about the costs of using non-state proxies. Its downing of the Ukrainian airliner PS752 shows other ricocheting costs are already hitting home.

    Gordian Knot or Hydra?

    However, to agree with the US, it would need reassurance that the US, which Iran accuses of violating IL, would abide by it in the future. As reports indicate, Iran has instead resumed its nuclear arms programme for more concrete deterrence – an action contrary to US security goals, and which requires a US response. The tit-for-tat cycle is both costly and risky, which is why states have come to prefer international agreements.

    From the US’ point of view, non-state proxies also render legal agreements ineffective: Iran can commit to something while its proxies continue to thwart US interests. Moreover, the doctrinaire commitment to “non-interference” by authoritarian states has made the pursuit of security across borders virtually impossible when consent is not given.

    If the other nation refuses to cooperate, the would-be enforcer faces a choice: bypass that nation’s consent to take out the threat (the US did this in Pakistan with the assassination of Osama Bin Laden), or leave it at the mercy of the other state (the US did this with Bin Laden in Sudan in the 1990s). The first choice violates the other state’s sovereignty to reinforce the initiating state’s self-protection, while the latter upholds international rule of law at the cost of the vitiating state’s right to protect itself. Whatever the decision, one state will be upset.

    Can International Law Reassert Itself?

    IL has always been governed by mutual consent – that states see it in their best interests to play by the rules for mutual security because the costs of defection are too high. The problem is that there is no effective legal way to deal with diffuse “invisible” threats right now, which means the underlying glue of mutual consent is breaking apart.

    Yet a rules-based order is much less risky and cheaper than arms races and proxy wars. This is critical because the drone technology race is taking place. The plausible deniability, accurate delivery of payload, and other features make it a preferred weapon and their capabilities are expanding. The costs of tit-for-tat can be better absorbed by the greater power, but it will suffer greater costs in absolute terms.

    Today, several regional powers are trying to pursue security objectives abroad unilaterally. Each eats away at the international rules-based system whenever they make an exception for themselves, yet feel justified because the current rules do not offer them satisfactory choices. However, the costs will be great and the risks greater still if they unravel the system, which was created precisely because states had suffered those costs in the past.

    Moreover, history tells us that where actors are deeply ideologically-committed, it will take a long and costly experience – or leadership change – to recognise the need to right the course and reconstruct a new rules-based order. Thus, a new regime that can deal effectively with “invisible threats” must be found before more parts of the system break down.

    About the Author

    Dr Joel Ng is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / International Politics and Security

    Last updated on 09/07/2020

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    Proxies and Drones: Can International Law Handle “Invisible Threats”?

    SYNOPSIS

    The debate over the legality of Qassem Soleimani’s assassination misses an essential point: international law is not upheld by moral adherence, but ...
    more info