• Home
  • About RSIS
    • Introduction
    • Building the Foundations
    • Welcome Message
    • Board of Governors
    • Staff Profiles
      • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
      • Dean’s Office
      • Management
      • Distinguished Fellows
      • Faculty and Research
      • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
      • Visiting Fellows
      • Adjunct Fellows
      • Administrative Staff
    • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
    • RSIS Endowment Fund
    • Endowed Professorships
    • Career Opportunities
    • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
    • Research Centres
      • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
      • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
      • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
      • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
      • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
    • Research Programmes
      • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
      • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
    • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
    • [email protected] Newsletter
    • Other Research
      • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
    • Graduate Programmes Office
    • Overview
    • MSc (Asian Studies)
    • MSc (International Political Economy)
    • MSc (International Relations)
    • MSc (Strategic Studies)
    • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
    • PhD Programme
    • Exchange Partners and Programmes
    • How to Apply
    • Financial Assistance
    • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
    • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
    • Alumni
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
    • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
    • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
    • SRP Executive Programme
    • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
    • RSIS Publications
      • Annual Reviews
      • Books
      • Bulletins and Newsletters
      • Commentaries
      • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
      • Commemorative / Event Reports
      • IDSS Paper
      • Interreligious Relations
      • Monographs
      • NTS Insight
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • RSIS Publications for the Year
    • Glossary of Abbreviations
    • External Publications
      • Authored Books
      • Journal Articles
      • Edited Books
      • Chapters in Edited Books
      • Policy Reports
      • Working Papers
      • Op-Eds
      • External Publications for the Year
    • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
    • Great Powers
    • Sustainable Security
    • Other Resource Pages
    • Media Highlights
    • News Releases
    • Speeches
    • Vidcast Channel
    • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsis.sg
Linkedin
instagram instagram rsis.sg
RSS
  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
      • How to Apply
      • Financial Assistance
      • Meet the Admissions Team: Information Sessions and other events
      • RSIS Alumni
  • Alumni & Networks
      • Alumni
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)
      • Asia-Pacific Programme for Senior National Security Officers (APPSNO)
      • International Strategy Forum-Asia (ISF-Asia)
      • SRP Executive Programme
      • Terrorism Analyst Training Course (TATC)
  • Publications
      • RSIS Publications
        • Annual Reviews
        • Books
        • Bulletins and Newsletters
        • Commentaries
        • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
        • Commemorative / Event Reports
        • IDSS Paper
        • Interreligious Relations
        • Monographs
        • NTS Insight
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • RSIS Publications for the Year
      • Glossary of Abbreviations
      • External Publications
        • Authored Books
        • Journal Articles
        • Edited Books
        • Chapters in Edited Books
        • Policy Reports
        • Working Papers
        • Op-Eds
        • External Publications for the Year
      • Policy-relevant Articles Given RSIS Award
  • Media
      • Great Powers
      • Sustainable Security
      • Other Resource Pages
      • Media Highlights
      • News Releases
      • Speeches
      • Vidcast Channel
      • Audio/Video Forums
  • Events
  • Giving
  • Contact Us
  • instagram instagram rsis.sg
Connect

Getting to RSIS

Map

Address

Nanyang Technological University
Block S4, Level B3,
50 Nanyang Avenue,
Singapore 639798

View location on Google maps Click here for directions to RSIS

Get in Touch

    Connect with Us

      rsis.ntu
      rsis_ntu
      rsisntu
    RSISVideoCast RSISVideoCast rsisvideocast
      school/rsis-ntu
    instagram instagram rsis.sg
      RSS
    Subscribe to RSIS Publications
    Subscribe to RSIS Events

    RSIS Intranet

    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

    Skip to content

     
    • RSIS
    • Publication
    • RSIS Publications
    • CO16040 | Resuming the Six-Party Talks?: Bleak Prospects
    • Annual Reviews
    • Books
    • Bulletins and Newsletters
    • Commentaries
    • Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses
    • Commemorative / Event Reports
    • IDSS Paper
    • Interreligious Relations
    • Monographs
    • NTS Insight
    • Policy Reports
    • Working Papers
    • RSIS Publications for the Year

    CO16040 | Resuming the Six-Party Talks?: Bleak Prospects
    Tan Ming Hui

    22 February 2016

    download pdf
    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    The Six-Party Talks to resolve North Korea’s nuclear crisis continues to be stalled after nearly seven years. China’s favoured diplomatic approach to deescalate regional tensions temporarily will do little to resolve the crisis if Beijing hesitates to wield a firm hand and rein its neighbour in.

    Commentary

    NORTH KOREA has violated multiple United Nations resolutions again by conducting its fourth nuclear test on 6 January 2016, and launching a long-range rocket on 7 February in defiance of international sanctions.

    The Chinese foreign ministry has responded negatively to the provocative actions of its neighbour despite the two countries’ long-standing relationship that has often been described “as close as lips and teeth”. Beijing has warned that it would support a new United Nations Security Council resolution to make Pyongyang “pay the necessary price”. At the same time, China continues to urge the United States and North Korea to resolve the issue peacefully by returning to the negotiating table.

    Can the Iran Nuclear Deal be Replicated?

    Multilateral negotiations, known as the Six-Party Talks among the US, China, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea have been stalled since 2009 when Pyongyang walked out of the talks in response to condemnation from the UN over a rocket launch. Since then, Pyongyang has revised its constitution in 2012 to proclaim itself a nuclear state.

    However, the relative success of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, whereby the Iranian nuclear programme is temporarily halted in exchange for gradual lifting of sanctions on the country, may give rise to some optimism for the relevant stakeholders to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis in a similar fashion.

    Nevertheless, the resumption of the Six-Party Talks is highly unlikely because of the diametrically opposed preconditions attached by the stakeholders. The US wants North Korea to return to the talks and commit to denuclearisation before the removal of sanctions and a peace treaty could be on the table; Pyongyang wants the sanctions to be first removed and a peace treaty negotiated before it is willing to return to the talks.

    Even if China can persuade all the major stakeholders to reach a compromise and return to the talks, it will only deescalate regional tensions temporarily as it is almost impossible that Pyongyang will ever agree to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The North Korean regime has followed a military-first policy since former leader, Kim Jong-Il’s reign, placing a special emphasis on the development of nuclear arsenal and ballistic missiles.

    Unlike Iran which does not have sufficient fissile material stockpiles to create a nuclear weapon, Pyongyang has already obtained several nuclear weapons and declared itself a nuclear power. Its nuclear arsenal is seen as the security guarantee and an effective bargaining chip to achieve the regime’s political goals.

    Also, while the Iranian government depends heavily on energy exports, welcomes foreign investments, and faces significant pressure from its people to end its decades of international isolation, North Korea is a lot more autarkic and less reliant on foreign trade and access to the international financial system.

    China’s Dilemma

    In fact, being its only ally, its largest trading partner, as well as its main source of food and energy, China is the only country that has any degree of influence over the hermit kingdom. If China has the political will to punish North Korea for its belligerent behaviour, it certainly can do so.

    Realistically, Beijing has two options. First, it can continue to insulate North Korea from the international community and learn to live with a nuclear armed ally and in the process, lose its recent budding friendship with South Korea and be confronted with a potential regional arms race in the future. Second, China can choose to cooperate with the rest of the international community to rein North Korea in with tough actions, but potentially losing its influence over the regime.

    Despite displaying increasing annoyance with North Korea’s decisions, it is more likely that China will continue to endure its neighbour’s provocations. China has traditionally seen North Korea as a buffer zone and hence, it is not in its immediate interests to allow the collapse of the Kim regime as this may result in a unified Korea that is democratic and pro-US. Also, the collapse of the North Korean regime would lead to a refugee crisis on China’s borders, potentially triggering economic and social chaos.

    Tough Road Ahead

    Nonetheless, getting China on board may not be a lost cause yet. There are signs that China is already gradually losing its influence over North Korea. Kim Jong-Un’s unexpected execution in 2013 of his uncle Jang Song-Thaek, who was regarded as pro-Beijing, has raised its concerns over the hermit kingdom’s unpredictability.

    Furthermore, when China sent a diplomat, Wu Dawei in early February to dissuade Pyongyang from the rocket launch, it went unheeded and the latter even brought forward the launch to the Lunar New Year’s Eve, a major Chinese holiday.

    This is perceived by some analysts as a sign of disrespect, and there may be a limit to China’s patience if its advice continues to be ignored. In fact, Kim Jong-Un has already expressed his intention to launch more satellites into space. Thus, even though it would be an extremely challenging task, the US and its allies may still be able to persuade Beijing to wield the stick eventually.

    About the Author

    Tan Ming Hui is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / Regionalism and Multilateralism / East Asia and Asia Pacific / Global

    Last updated on 22/02/2016

    RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due credit to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected].

    Synopsis

    The Six-Party Talks to resolve North Korea’s nuclear crisis continues to be stalled after nearly seven years. China’s favoured diplomatic approach to deescalate regional tensions temporarily will do little to resolve the crisis if Beijing hesitates to wield a firm hand and rein its neighbour in.

    Commentary

    NORTH KOREA has violated multiple United Nations resolutions again by conducting its fourth nuclear test on 6 January 2016, and launching a long-range rocket on 7 February in defiance of international sanctions.

    The Chinese foreign ministry has responded negatively to the provocative actions of its neighbour despite the two countries’ long-standing relationship that has often been described “as close as lips and teeth”. Beijing has warned that it would support a new United Nations Security Council resolution to make Pyongyang “pay the necessary price”. At the same time, China continues to urge the United States and North Korea to resolve the issue peacefully by returning to the negotiating table.

    Can the Iran Nuclear Deal be Replicated?

    Multilateral negotiations, known as the Six-Party Talks among the US, China, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea have been stalled since 2009 when Pyongyang walked out of the talks in response to condemnation from the UN over a rocket launch. Since then, Pyongyang has revised its constitution in 2012 to proclaim itself a nuclear state.

    However, the relative success of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, whereby the Iranian nuclear programme is temporarily halted in exchange for gradual lifting of sanctions on the country, may give rise to some optimism for the relevant stakeholders to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis in a similar fashion.

    Nevertheless, the resumption of the Six-Party Talks is highly unlikely because of the diametrically opposed preconditions attached by the stakeholders. The US wants North Korea to return to the talks and commit to denuclearisation before the removal of sanctions and a peace treaty could be on the table; Pyongyang wants the sanctions to be first removed and a peace treaty negotiated before it is willing to return to the talks.

    Even if China can persuade all the major stakeholders to reach a compromise and return to the talks, it will only deescalate regional tensions temporarily as it is almost impossible that Pyongyang will ever agree to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The North Korean regime has followed a military-first policy since former leader, Kim Jong-Il’s reign, placing a special emphasis on the development of nuclear arsenal and ballistic missiles.

    Unlike Iran which does not have sufficient fissile material stockpiles to create a nuclear weapon, Pyongyang has already obtained several nuclear weapons and declared itself a nuclear power. Its nuclear arsenal is seen as the security guarantee and an effective bargaining chip to achieve the regime’s political goals.

    Also, while the Iranian government depends heavily on energy exports, welcomes foreign investments, and faces significant pressure from its people to end its decades of international isolation, North Korea is a lot more autarkic and less reliant on foreign trade and access to the international financial system.

    China’s Dilemma

    In fact, being its only ally, its largest trading partner, as well as its main source of food and energy, China is the only country that has any degree of influence over the hermit kingdom. If China has the political will to punish North Korea for its belligerent behaviour, it certainly can do so.

    Realistically, Beijing has two options. First, it can continue to insulate North Korea from the international community and learn to live with a nuclear armed ally and in the process, lose its recent budding friendship with South Korea and be confronted with a potential regional arms race in the future. Second, China can choose to cooperate with the rest of the international community to rein North Korea in with tough actions, but potentially losing its influence over the regime.

    Despite displaying increasing annoyance with North Korea’s decisions, it is more likely that China will continue to endure its neighbour’s provocations. China has traditionally seen North Korea as a buffer zone and hence, it is not in its immediate interests to allow the collapse of the Kim regime as this may result in a unified Korea that is democratic and pro-US. Also, the collapse of the North Korean regime would lead to a refugee crisis on China’s borders, potentially triggering economic and social chaos.

    Tough Road Ahead

    Nonetheless, getting China on board may not be a lost cause yet. There are signs that China is already gradually losing its influence over North Korea. Kim Jong-Un’s unexpected execution in 2013 of his uncle Jang Song-Thaek, who was regarded as pro-Beijing, has raised its concerns over the hermit kingdom’s unpredictability.

    Furthermore, when China sent a diplomat, Wu Dawei in early February to dissuade Pyongyang from the rocket launch, it went unheeded and the latter even brought forward the launch to the Lunar New Year’s Eve, a major Chinese holiday.

    This is perceived by some analysts as a sign of disrespect, and there may be a limit to China’s patience if its advice continues to be ignored. In fact, Kim Jong-Un has already expressed his intention to launch more satellites into space. Thus, even though it would be an extremely challenging task, the US and its allies may still be able to persuade Beijing to wield the stick eventually.

    About the Author

    Tan Ming Hui is an Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

    Categories: Commentaries / Country and Region Studies / Regionalism and Multilateralism

    Last updated on 22/02/2016

    Back to top

    Terms of Use | Privacy Statement
    Copyright © S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. All rights reserved.
    This site uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience. By continuing, you are agreeing to the use of cookies on your device as described in our privacy policy. Learn more
    OK
    Latest Book
    CO16040 | Resuming the Six-Party Talks?: Bleak Prospects

    Synopsis

    The Six-Party Talks to resolve North Korea’s nuclear crisis continues to be stalled after nearly seven years. China’s favoured diplomatic approach to d ...
    more info