14 June 2010
WP203 | Future of U.S. Power: Is China Going to Eclipse the United States? Two Possible Scenarios to 2040
Abstract
This working paper discusses a few possible ways how U.S. power may evolve from 2010 to 2040. I begin with a description of this work’s objectives, and continue with the introduction of the mixed scenario method that will be used in this work. I will summarize the epochs of the U.S. power, such as establishing the nation, achieving the world hegemony, attempts to build an Empire, struggling with rising multipolarity and contemporary attempts to maintain the (declining) hegemony. Then I attempt to draw analogies from the knowledge of evolution of historical empires to the contemporary world’s political economy. Next, I will discuss the historical and emerging power trajectories of China and its long-term abilities to challenge the United States and achieve the world hegemony. Finally, I will provide two mixed-method scenarios, where the United States and China have totally different roles and powers.
Key words: United States, China, mixed scenario method, exploratory forecasting, power trajectories, clash, economic recession, multipolarity, hegemony, rise and fall of an Empire, use of analogies from history to project futures.
Abstract
This working paper discusses a few possible ways how U.S. power may evolve from 2010 to 2040. I begin with a description of this work’s objectives, and continue with the introduction of the mixed scenario method that will be used in this work. I will summarize the epochs of the U.S. power, such as establishing the nation, achieving the world hegemony, attempts to build an Empire, struggling with rising multipolarity and contemporary attempts to maintain the (declining) hegemony. Then I attempt to draw analogies from the knowledge of evolution of historical empires to the contemporary world’s political economy. Next, I will discuss the historical and emerging power trajectories of China and its long-term abilities to challenge the United States and achieve the world hegemony. Finally, I will provide two mixed-method scenarios, where the United States and China have totally different roles and powers.
Key words: United States, China, mixed scenario method, exploratory forecasting, power trajectories, clash, economic recession, multipolarity, hegemony, rise and fall of an Empire, use of analogies from history to project futures.
