CO08024 | Mas Selamat Kastari’s Disappearing Act: Assessing the Fallout

Assessing the Fallout

For a start, it is likely that Mas Selamat’s escape would be construed, painted and hailed by existing JI members as an act of divine intervention: the “narrative” of how Mas Selamat, seemingly with the odds stacked against him, was able to miraculously beat Singapore’s security system with spiritual assistance. Like how some extremists perceived Osama Bin Laden’s continued elusiveness from security forces — despite massive rewards and state-of-the-art intelligence technologies — as the “will of God”, Mas Selamat’s escape may well be interpreted in the same “theological” bent. Indeed, like-minded individuals or groups with similar agendas to JI, may even opportunistically hijack and exploit the “Mas Selamat escape” storyline for their own recruitment and indoctrination purposes.

Second, for the past few years, the JI terrorist organisation has been suffering a series of consistent and major setbacks. The arrests of scores of JI members, including prominent figures such as the likes of Abu Dujana, Hambali and Zarkasih, meant that while JI remains a strategic threat, its operational capability has been severely decimated. Now, with this “good news” (from JI’s perspective) of Mas Selamat’s escape, it is possible that JI will see this as some sort of an operational watershed that suggests a turning of the tide — constituting a timely psychological shot in the arm for the morale and spirit of their cadres. At the same time, the longer that Mas Selamat remains at large, the greater his legend in regional terroristic circles. This point should be noted because Mas Selamat is one of those few JI radicals with bona fide “strategic potential”, in the sense that he is well capable of re-generating and re-orientating a terrorist cell around him.

Full and fair inquiry needed

The third issue relates to the concern of whether regional counter-terrorism cooperation with Singapore would be affected as a result of this escape incident: Mas Selamat, after all, escaped under Singapore’s charge after being handed over by the Indonesians. Of course, it cannot be denied that Singapore’s generally strong reputation in homeland security matters has taken a hit; yet it is also equally far-fetched to say that this reputation — founded on robust fundamentals and a sterling track record — would be severely dented just because one focal incident.

In fact, if there is a full and fair inquiry into the reasons behind the security lapse and as well as the preventive measures to be taken, to ensure no such incident happens again, then some good may actually come out of it. For instance the publication of a Government White Paper like the previous one on JI put out in January 2003, which identifies key lessons learnt: this would not only benefit the operational agencies within Singapore and the region, but also signify a transparent and forward- looking attitude towards the whole episode.

Finally, it is highly possible that in escaping, Mas Selamat may have left a number of inadvertent signatures and footprints that would be invaluable to intelligence and counter-terrorism agencies in enhancing their operational insights into a wider network, if any, that may be lending him support. Perhaps the role of previously unknown self-radicalised supporters with no institutional links with JI, but nevertheless have bought into Mas Selamat’s “Global Jihad” vision, and played some role in his escape, would be uncovered.

Final Word

We must recognise that the war on terror is a long-term one; one cannot expect an unbroken string of counter-terrorism successes. There will be ebbs and flows. Enduring success in the ongoing campaign against JI and its ideological bedfellows — both known and currently unknown — must involve a range of measures well beyond tightening detention processes, such as combating the threat of radicalisation, self or otherwise.

Ultimately, what matters is that Singaporeans and our friends in the region, regardless of colour or creed, must rally together and stubbornly keep the faith in the ideals of tolerance and reason, till one day the danger of radicalism — whatever form it takes — is overcome.