Tension Over Taiwan Set to Remain High but Military Action Unlikely

The Straits Times, page A34-35

24 April 2021

With increased regularity since late last year, Chinese fighter jets and bombers have roared into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, with the largest-ever group of 25 aircraft doing so last week. Associate Professor Li Mingjiang of RSIS notes that China’s escalation of military activity is mainly in response to what it sees as significant changes in US policy towards Taiwan and changes in the interaction between Washington and Taipei. Professor Li cited as examples former US president Donald Trump’s act of sending a Cabinet-level official to Taiwan last year, the signing of a memorandum of cooperation between the US’ and Taiwan’s coast guards last month, arms sales to Taiwan that have increased in quantity and quality, and Mr Biden’s move to send a delegation to Taiwan. Professor Li noted that the level of ambiguity has gone down, with some US officials making policy statements recently that the US is committed to the protection of Taiwan. “It is likely that Beijing wants to use this military activity to put pressure on the US, to basically send a signal to the US that if the US intends to make clearer its security commitment to Taiwan, then there is a danger of war,” he said. Professor Li said that any conflict will have an impact on the security of the Asia-Pacific region and would in turn negatively impact trade and investment in the region. But he added that this is not yet a real concern.

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