Taiwan’s Military Conscription Dilemma

The Diplomat (Japan)

30 August 2016

Wu Shang-su

After the former Kuomintang (KMT, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party) administration’s two failed attempts to transform Taiwan’s military into an all-volunteer force (AVF) in 2013 and 2015, the landslide victory of Tsai Ing-Wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the 2016 general election presented a great opportunity to reverse the AVF policies. The DPP’s majority in the legislative yuan, Tsai’s high popularity in the polls, as well as the “honeymoon” period between a new administration and the people could together form the political capital necessary to resume conscription for Taiwan’s various defense needs.

In the face of China’s rising military capability, conscription would arguably greatly contribute to Taiwan’s defense in term of both finance and deterrence. The AVF’s high human costs are a trade-off with funding for military investment, logistics, and training; conscription would leave more financial capacity in the defense budget. At the same time, conscription with a mobilization mechanism can multiply the size of the armed forces in a short time, creating certain regional superiority in an island defense scenario and a wider margin for bearing losses during battle. Conscripts with proper training would have better knowledge and physical strength than civilians, allowing them to be reorganized for guerrilla or other kinds of warfare, which could pose higher costs for the invader and thus serve the purpose of deterrence. All in all, conscription could demonstrate the general resolve of defense, sending a strong message of deterrence to China because of the people’s broad involvement in defense.

However, conscription in Taiwan has been unpopular in the country for decades. There are numerous reasons for the public’s poor impression of conscription: the economic opportunity costs, cases of improper training and obsolete equipment, an inadequate link between training routines and defense, and the different characteristics of young generations, as well as the considerable loopholes for escaping military service. Ideally, the government should fix these problems through comprehensive military reform in order to restore popular confidence and respect for conscription, but that’s easier said than done. Such large reforms cannot be completed in a few years, not to mention the high budgetary and management requirements of initiating such a project.

… Shang-su Wu is a Research Fellow at the Military Studies Programme of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

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