The landslide wins by the Taiwanese opposition in local elections has not only made clear the public’s preference but foretells an uncertain future for Taiwan.

In 1997, the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT) also lost control of several major counties and cities, including Taoyuan, Taichung and Changhwa, to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in local government elections. Three years later, the KMT was defeated by the DPP in the presidential election. And now again the DPP and other non-KMT candidates have enjoyed a thumping victory in local polls. But this time the context is very different.

Since 2008, the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou has pursued a strategy of working with China to share the benefits of the mainland’s rising economy, at the cost of accepting ever greater Chinese influence. The approach has not been popular, with critics claiming that the economic gains have not been sufficient to justify the concessions made. Ma will find it difficult counter this unhappiness before 2016, because the economic benefits for Taiwan of cooperating with China tend to be concentrated in areas such as its industrial structure, which will take a long time to transform.

…Shang-su Wu is a research fellow in the Military Studies Programme, a constitute unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.