China Poised to Play Long Game Over Cross-Strait Challenge

The Straits Times

24 April 2021

China may have ramped up its military posturing over Taiwan in the wake of recent US engagement with the island, but Beijing is not about to launch a war any time soon, or likely even in the decades to come, to wrest the renegade province back. While there is talk that any categorical statement by the United States that it would come to Taiwan’s defence in the event of a conflict may end up forcing the hand of Chinese President Xi Jinping, there is no indication that he would take such drastic action. But the recent muscle-flexing in the Taiwan Strait is but a sign of “peremptory deterrence” displayed by Beijing rather than a proactive challenge, said Assistant Professor Hoo Tiang Boon, a cross-strait relations expert at RSIS. “The issue of reunification is an issue that can make or break the Chinese Communist Party. I’m not saying that minor military skirmishes may not happen, but a full-scale invasion is highly unlikely, unless Xi and his colleagues are forced into a corner – that is, Taiwan openly declares independence,” he said. “Because if the military conflict with Taiwan does not succeed, and if it involves the US, this would be a major blow to any Chinese leader.”

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Last updated on 04/05/2021