Defeat of Rebels in Marawi Could Spell More Trouble for SE Asia, Say Analysts

TODAY

30 May 2017

Like the stirring of a hornet’s nest — as an expert here put it — the imminent defeat of Islamist militants in the southern Philippine city of Marawi could pose a bigger problem further down the road, terrorism analysts said yesterday.

What was previously largely contained in the Philippines could escalate into a security nightmare for the region if the militants regroup in other areas near the Sulu Sea such as eastern Malaysia, and parts of Indonesia, said S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) research fellow Graham Ong-Webb.

Dr Rohan Gunaratna, who heads RSIS’ International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, also warned that if “regional governments fail to contain the threat, (the problem) will spill over into Singapore”.

Assoc Prof Kumar Ramakrishna, head of Policy Studies and coordinator of the National Security Studies Programme at RSIS, noted that West and Central Java, as well as Central Sulawesi, may be “fertile socioeconomic and political ground for IS ideology to take root”. He also cited southern Thailand, where there is an ongoing insurgency. While the Thai-Muslim separatists have been “not that interested” in broader agendas such as those perpetuated by Al Qaeda or Jemaah Islamiyah, the insurgency in southern Thailand could provide a source of weapons for IS cells in Malaysia, Assoc Prof Kumar said.

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