3 Sino-U.S. Scenarios in South China Sea Dispute

The Straits Times

19 May 2015

CHINA and the United States have clashed again over the disputed waters of the South China Sea, raising fears that escalating tensions could result in a dangerous miscalculation that might lead to accidental military conflict.

It did not help that US Secretary of State John Kerry failed to refute reports that the Pentagon is mulling over having ships and planes expand patrols to disputed areas, including within 12 nautical miles of islands, in a direct challenge to China’s territorial claims, at a press conference with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday.

A Global Times editorial last Thursday warned the US threat to expand its patrols was a provocation that could turn the sea into “a powder keg”.

… But Singapore-based analyst Li Mingjiang said close-range manoeuvres and a military stand- off would be the worst case scenario, with any exchange of fire “almost impossible”.

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