A week before Christmas, the world held its breath as a tense hostage situation unfolded in a cafe in Sydney’s central business district.

A black flag bearing the Islamic declaration of faith was pressed against the cafe window by hostages, sparking a wave of speculation that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was behind the attack.

But the lone gunman – who died with two of his hostages at the end of the 16-hour siege – had no direct links to a terror group.

…There have been at most 120 true lone wolves in the last three decades of terrorism, says S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) associate professor Ahmed Salah Hashim. He explains: “A true lone wolf is a self-radicalised individual with a political agenda but no direct links to any terrorist group. He is not part of a sleeper cell. He works alone, even if he is influenced by the ideas of a group.”

…”Small groups and resilient networks have become new organisational paradigms, especially in the case of jihadist terrorism. Lone wolves are the product of this evolution and represent a sustainable trend,” explains Romain Quivooij, an associate research fellow who studies radicalisation at the Centre of Excellence for National Security at RSIS.