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  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
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        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Future Issues And Technology (FIT)
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
      • MSc (Strategic Studies)
      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
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      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
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    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
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    • RSIS Luncheon Seminar by Ms Amanda Huan, Senior Analyst, Associate Dean’s Office, RSIS; and Professor Pascal Vennesson, Professor of Political Science, RSIS

    RSIS Luncheon Seminar by Ms Amanda Huan, Senior Analyst, Associate Dean’s Office, RSIS; and Professor Pascal Vennesson, Professor of Political Science, RSIS

    Intuitive Expert or Overconfident Risk Taker? General Douglas MacArthur and the Incheon Landing Decision

    11 Jan 2017 12:30 - 14:00
    Conference Room, RSIS, Level B4
    Long-sleeved shirt
    Type: Lectures / Seminars
    By Invitation
    Google Calendar

    About the Lecture

    Can we trust the operational intuitions of generals? The overconfidence model and the recognition-primed decision model, two of the most influential perspectives about judgement and decisions in cognitive psychology, provide contrasting answers to this question. On one side stand the proponents of the overconfidence model who acknowledge skill and expertise, but present human cognitive performance as commonly flawed. On the other side of this discussion stand the advocates of the recognition-primed decision model who recognize that professionals occasionally make mistakes, but tend to stress the marvels of successful expert performance. The goal of this article is to assess which of these two models provide better insights into the impact of command decisions on operational effectiveness. To do so, we apply them to a historical case-study: general Douglas MacArthur’s decision to land at Inchon (June-September 1950).

    About the Speakers

    Amanda Huan is a Senior Analyst in the Associate Deans’ Office at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) of Nanyang Technological University (NTU). Before joining RSIS, she was a consultant at a private consultancy firm where she dealt mainly with research and advisory work for non-profit organisations such as Enactus Singapore and the Singapore Chinese Orchestra. Her research interests include political psychology, organisational behaviour, international organisations, reputation management, and communication. Amanda possesses a BA in Psychology/Criminology from Adams State College and an undergraduate honours degree in Communication Studies and Psychology from NTU. She completed her MSc in International Relations at RSIS.

    Pascal Vennesson is Professor of Political Science at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. His research and teaching lie at the intersection of the fields of international relations and strategic studies. Before joining RSIS, he held the Chair “Security in Europe”, at the European University Institute, Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies. He also taught “Strategy and Policy” for ten years at The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)-Bologna Center and at the College of Europe. He is the author, co-author and editor of six books and his refereed articles have been notably published in Armed Forces and Society, International Relations, Journal of Strategic Studies, Review of International Studies, Revue Française de Science Politique (French Political Science Review) and Security Studies. He is a member of the editorial boards of Revue Française de Science Politique (French Political Science Review), Security Studies, Armed Forces and Society and the European Journal of International Security. Professor Vennesson was a fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Arms Control, at Ohio State University’s Mershon Center and a Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (National Center for Scientific Research) fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government. He received his MA from the University Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne and his Ph.D. from Sciences-Po Paris.

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    RSIS Luncheon Seminar by Ms Amanda Huan, Senior Analyst, Associate Dean’s Office, RSIS; and Professor Pascal Vennesson, Professor of Political Science, RSIS
    About the Lecture Can we trust the operational intuitions of generals? The overconfidence model and the recognition-primed decision model, two of the ...
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