Abstract

Global wealth and power are shifting eastwards. Three of the world’s four largest economies are in Asia, and the fourth, the United States, is a Pacific power. By 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia, compared with just over a tenth in the West.

Asia’s economic transformation is reshaping the global distribution of power, changing the way the region — and indeed the world — works politically and strategically. Just as significantly, tensions between Asian powers will define war and peace in the twenty-first century.

The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index is an analytical tool to track changes in the distribution of power in the region. It aims to sharpen the debate on geopolitics in Asia.

The Index ranks 25 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to influence regional events, reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

The project evaluates state power through 114 indicators across eight thematic measures: military capability and defence networks, economic resources and relationships, diplomatic and cultural influence, as well as resilience and future trends.

A specially designed digital platform allows users to explore variations in power projection within and between countries. Annual editions of the Index will track how the distribution of power in Asia shifts over time.

Join Hervé Lemahieu and Bonnie Bley, the principal researchers behind the project, for a discussion on the methodology and wide-ranging findings of the Index.

About the Speakers

Hervé Lemahieu is responsible for the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, the largest comparative assessment of power in the region ever undertaken.

Hervé has expertise in the political economy and foreign policy of countries in mainland Southeast Asia, and the broader Asia-Pacific region. His analysis has featured or been quoted in the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Foreign Policy, El País, Bangkok Post, The Straits Times, South China Morning Post, and Nikkei Asian Review. He also Co-Chairs the annual track 1.5 Australia–France Strategic Dialogue.

Hervé joined Lowy Institute from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) where he was Research Associate for Political Economy and Security. He started his career at Oxford Analytica where he was responsible for the consultancy’s analysis of the Mekong region.

Hervé earned an MSc in Global Governance and Diplomacy from the University of Oxford, and an MA in International Relations and Modern History from the University of St Andrews.

Bonnie Bley is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, where she works on the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index. The project is the largest comparative assessment of power in the region ever undertaken.

Prior to joining the Lowy Institute, Bonnie worked at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, where she was responsible for web content and social media strategies, notably at the 2016 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. She furthermore worked on a range of IISS products, including the Military Balance, Armed Conflict Database and Strategic Comments.

Bonnie earned first-class honours in European Social and Political Studies at University College London (UCL). She also studied at the University of Bologna.