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  • Home
  • About RSIS
      • Introduction
      • Building the Foundations
      • Welcome Message
      • Board of Governors
      • Staff Profiles
        • Executive Deputy Chairman’s Office
        • Dean’s Office
        • Management
        • Distinguished Fellows
        • Faculty and Research
        • Associate Research Fellows, Senior Analysts and Research Analysts
        • Visiting Fellows
        • Adjunct Fellows
        • Administrative Staff
      • Honours and Awards for RSIS Staff and Students
      • RSIS Endowment Fund
      • Endowed Professorships
      • Career Opportunities
      • Getting to RSIS
  • Research
      • Research Centres
        • Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS)
        • Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS Centre)
        • Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS)
        • Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS)
        • International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR)
      • Research Programmes
        • National Security Studies Programme (NSSP)
        • Studies in Inter-Religious Relations in Plural Societies (SRP) Programme
      • Future Issues and Technology Cluster
      • [email protected] Newsletter
      • Other Research
        • Science and Technology Studies Programme (STSP) (2017-2020)
  • Graduate Education
      • Graduate Programmes Office
      • Overview
      • MSc (Asian Studies)
      • MSc (International Political Economy)
      • MSc (International Relations)
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      • NTU-Warwick Double Masters Programme
      • PhD Programme
      • Exchange Partners and Programmes
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        • RSIS Publications for the Year
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    S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Think Tank and Graduate School Ponder The Improbable Since 1966
    Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological University

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    The Electoral Effects of Chinese Import Competition in the United States
    Dr Su-Hyun Lee Assistant Professor and Coordinator of MSc (International Political Economy) Programme
    Dr Su-Hyun Lee
    1
    How does trade liberalisation with shocks affect voting behaviour? Relying on the recent literature on trade politics (Yotam 2011; Jensen et al. 2017), this research project examines the effects of localised economic shocks from Chinese imports on US presidential elections 1996-2016. Using sectoral data on bilateral trade flows between the US-China and geographical information on the composition of industrial employment, the paper finds that voters more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to punish the incumbent president and his co-partisans. The anti-incumbent effects of Chinese import shocks are, however, significantly conditioned by contextual factors, such as executive partisanship and the presence of domestic compensations (e.g. Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs and Social Security Disability Insurance).

    The paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the IPES 2017; the EPSA; the APSA, 2018, ISA, 2019 and MPSA 2019.
    Theme:  Country and Region Studies / General / International Political Economy
    Region:  Americas
    Entity:  CMS

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    The Electoral Effects of Chinese Import Competition in the United States
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