How does trade liberalisation with shocks affect voting behaviour? Relying on the recent literature on trade politics (Yotam 2011; Jensen et al. 2017), this research project examines the effects of localised economic shocks from Chinese imports on US presidential elections 1996-2016. Using sectoral data on bilateral trade flows between the US-China and geographical information on the composition of industrial employment, the paper finds that voters more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to punish the incumbent president and his co-partisans. The anti-incumbent effects of Chinese import shocks are, however, significantly conditioned by contextual factors, such as executive partisanship and the presence of domestic compensations (e.g. Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs and Social Security Disability Insurance).

The paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the IPES 2017; the EPSA; the APSA, 2018, ISA, 2019 and MPSA 2019.