This is a collaborative project with Dr Yasutaka Tominaga at Hosei University. This study aims to test the causal mechanisms of how natural disasters affect the progress of armed conflict. We argue that a natural disaster reduces the value of future rents that militant members can obtain, and it also destructs the current flows of resources, thus diminishing resource supply to militant members. As a result, we hypothesize that natural disasters (especially those with rapid onsets) reduce the survival of rebel groups, particularly those that rely on stable revenue streams from resources. When a militant group has support from external actors, however, they are less vulnerable to the impact of natural disasters. We test our hypotheses using data on natural disasters, armed conflicts, and rebel funding, and the results support our hypotheses.

[Updated] The manuscript was presented at the ISA Annual Conference in Toronto. We are working on the revisions based on the comments.