Military Transformations Programme

The Military Transformations Programme (MTP) was established in 2003. MTP aims to develop an indigenous policy-relevant and scholarly expertise on emerging military innovation issues such as how novel technologies are affecting military capabilities and warfighting concepts, the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) as a “transformative core” for future militaries – particularly for Indo-Pacific militaries and superpowers – and the impact of such innovations on regional military balances and long-term military-strategic competitions.

Since 2018, MTP is focusing its research agenda on:

Emerging Technologies: the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the development of new types of armaments and other military equipment that may add new capabilities and advantages to militaries over the longer term (i.e., out to 2040). These innovations include advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, quantum computing, among others, as well as their strategic and operational interactions.

Competitive Strategies: The long-range strategic competition between great powers shapes the direction and character of future military competitions in the Indo-Pacific Region. MTP research projects aim to provide an ongoing assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of competitors and suggest sources of competitive advantage such as the maturation and spread of asymmetric anti-access/area-denial capabilities, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and disruption, future warfighting strategies and concepts, and their implications for Southeast Asia.

MTP regularly engages with academics, policymakers, defence establishments, and practitioners through the exchange of views and policy-relevant research. The programme organises an annual workshop addressing issues of emerging technologies and competitive strategies and providing a platform for stakeholders to interact and exchange views, including the MTP Workshop on “Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine” in 2022. In 2023, MTP is organising a workshop on “Beyond Nuclear: Disruptive Technologies and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century”, to take place in November 2023.

Programme Staff

Mr Manoj Harjani
Research Fellow
Coordinator, Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6513 8299
Email: [email protected]

Dr Michael Raska
Assistant Professor
Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6592 3660
Email: [email protected]

Ms Mei Ching Liu
Associate Research Fellow
Military Transformations Programme, IDSS
DID: 6904 1338
Email: [email protected]

MTP Select Publications

 Books:

• Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger (eds), The AI Wave in Defence Innovation: Assessing Military Artificial Intelligence Strategies, Capabilities, and Trajectories. (New York: Routledge 2023).
• Richard A. Bitzinger (co-editor), Defence Industries in the 21st Century: A Comparative Analysis (London: Routledge 2020).
• Richard A. Bitzinger, Arming Asia: Technonationalism and its Impact on Local Defense Industries (New York, NY: Routledge 2017).
• Michael Raska, Military Innovation of Small States: Creating a Reverse Asymmetry (New York, NY: Routledge 2016).
• Michael Raska (co-editor). Security, Strategy and Military Change in the 21^st Century: Cross-Regional Perspectives (New York, NY: Routledge, 2015).

Journal Articles

• Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska. (2022). Chinese and Russian Military Modernisation and the 4IR. SIRIUS – Journal of Strategic Analyses (German), 6(3), 303-317.
• Michael Raska, Katarzyna Zysk, and Ian Bowers (eds.), “Defence Innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution: Security Challenges, Technologies, and National Responses,” Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021).
• Michael Raska, “The sixth RMA wave: Disruption in Military Affairs?,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021): 456-479.
• Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “From Closed to Open Systems: How the US Military Services Pursue Innovation,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, 44/4 (2021): 480-514.
• Richard Bitzinger, “China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy: Development, Procurement, and Secrecy,” Asia Policy, 16/1 (2021): 1-64.
• Michael Raska, “North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies: Continuity and Change,” SIRIUS – Journal of Strategic Analyses, 4/2 (2020): 144-158.
• Michael Raska, “Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns,” PRISM – Journal of Complex Operations, 8/3 (2020): 65-81.
• Michael Raska, “Strategic Competition and Future Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific Region,” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 2/2 (2019): 83-97.

Book Chapters 

• Michael Raska and Malcolm Davis. The ‘AI Wave’ in Space Operations: Implications for Future Warfare. In Pekkanen S. and Blount PJ., The Oxford Handbook of Space Security. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming).
• Richard A. Bitzinger and Michael Raska. Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the 4IR. In: Kirchberger, S., Sinjen, S., and Wörmer, N. eds. Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? (Switzerland: Springer Nature, 2022).
• Michael Raska. North Korea’s Evolving Cyber Strategies and Operations: Toward Weapons of Mass Effectiveness. In: Snyder, S. and Park K. eds. North Korea’s Foreign Policy: The Kim Jong-un Regime in a Hostile World. (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2022), 173-200.
• Michael Raska. The AI Wave in Military Affairs: Enablers and Constraints, In: The National Institute for Defense Studies, Technological Innovation and Security: The Impact on the Strategic Environment in East Asia, (Tokyo: NIDS The National Institute for Defense Studies, 2022), 89-101.
• George Christou and Michael Raska, “EU-Asia Cybersecurity,” In: Thomas Christiansen, Emil Kirchner, and See Seng Tan () The European Union’s Security Relations with Asian Partners (London: Palgrave Macmillan 2021), 209-230.
• Gulizar Haciyakupoglu and Michael Raska, “China’s Political Warfare in Taiwan: Strategies, Methods, and Global Implications,” In: Mikael Weissmann et. al. (eds.), Hybrid Warfare: Security and Asymmetric Conflict in International Relations (London: I.B. Tauris, 2021), 173-194.
• Michael Raska, “Diesel-Electric Submarine Modernisation in Asia: The Role of Air-Independent Propulsion Systems,” In: Richard Bitzinger () Emerging Critical Technologies and Security in the Asia-Pacific (London: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2016), 91-106.
• Michael Raska and Richard Bitzinger, “Capacity for Innovation: Technological Drivers in China’s Future Military Modernisation,” In: Roy Kamphausen and David Lai (eds.) The PLA in 2025. (Washington D.C.: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2015), 129-162.

Policy Reports

• Richard A. Bitzinger, Wichuta Teeratanabodee, and Michael Raska. Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine. RSIS/MTP Workshop Report, 23 January 2023.
• Zoe Stanley-Lockman and Andrea Gilli, “Ethical Purpose: Ethics and Values” and “Technological Superiority” in Andrea Gilli (ed.) “NATO-Mation”: Strategies for Leading in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, NATO Defence College, December 2020.
• Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “Hunt for the Unmanned Red October: The Rise of Underwater Drones” in Florence Gaub (ed.) Conflicts to Come: 15 scenarios for 2030, European Union Institute for Security Studies 2020.
• Zoe Stanley-Lockman, “Futureproofing Transatlantic Relations: The Case for Stronger Technology Cooperation,” in Simona Soare (ed.) Turning the Tide: How to Rescue Transatlantic Relations, European Union Institute for Security Studies,
• Malcolm Davis, “Australia as a Rising Middle Power,” RSIS Working Paper, 23 April 2020.
• Michael Raska, “China’s Strategy and the Defence Sector: Advances and Challenges,” in Richard Bitzinger and Nicu Popescu () The Defence Industry in Russia and China. European Institute for Security Studies, 2017.
• Michael Raska, “Military-Cyber Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific,” in: International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2017: Key Developments and Trends. London: IISS, 125-140.
• Michael Raska and Vasily Kashin, “Countering the U.S. Third Offset Strategy: Russian Perspectives, Responses, and Challenges,” RSIS Policy Report, 2017.
• Michael Raska, “South Korea’s Military Innovation Trajectories,” in Patrick Cronin (ed.) Breakthrough on the Peninsula: Third Offset Strategies and the Future of Defence of Korea, Center for New American Security,

Commentaries and Op-eds

• Wichuta Teeratanabodee. How Japan can edge out China to become a world leader in cleaning up space junk. South China Morning Post, 9 July 2023.
• Manoj Harjani. Is an AUKUS Expansion on the Cards?. IDSS Paper, 24 May 2023.
• Wichuta Teeratanabodee. Inaugural Summit on Responsible AI in the Military Domain: Limitations and Proposed Pathways. IDSS Paper, 23 March 2023.
• Michael Raska. Everything Everywhere All at Once: The Challenge of Defence Supply Chains. The Straits Times, 21 March 2023.
• Michael Raska. Rethinking the AI wave in digital warfare. East Asia Forum, 7 February 2023.
• Michael Raska. The Seoul Drone Scare’s Message for Asia’s Military Planners. The Straits Times, 16 January 2023.
• Michael Raska. The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Northeast Asia. IDSS Paper, 12 January 2023.
• Michael Raska. Mapping North Korean Cyber Strategies. RSIS Commentary, 30 December 2022.
• Michael Raska. The Future of Digital Warfare. RSIS Commentary, 13 December 2022.
• Wichuta Teeratanabodee. Mitigating Risks to Space Sustainability. IDSS Paper, 9 December 2022.
• Wichuta Teeratanabodee. The Environmental Impact of Military AI. IDSS Paper, 15 July 2022.
• Wichuta Teeratanabodee. Military AI Governance in East Asia: Advances and Challenges. IDSS Paper, 23 June 2022.
• Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger. The Contours of Emerging Technologies and Future Warfare. IDSS Paper, 22 February 2022.

Workshops and Roundtables 

• MTP Conference on “Beyond Nuclear: Disruptive Technologies and Strategic Stability in the 21^st Century” (forthcoming, November 2023)
• MTP Roundtable on “China’s Defence and Military Innovation Paths” by Dean Cheng, 3 May 2023.
• MTP Workshop on “Future Conflicts – Lessons Learned from Ukraine”, 22-23 November 2022
• MTP Virtual Roundtable on “Small States, Emerging Technologies and Space Innovation: Creating Space Resiliency” by Gaetan Petit and Grégoire Bourban
• MTP Virtual Roundtable on “How the war in Ukraine is affecting Russian AI research and development” by Samuel Bendett, 11 May 2022.

Invited Presentations

• Michael Raska and Wichuta Teeratanabodee. Delivered a presentation on “The AI Wave in Defence Innovation” at the Responsible AI in the Military Domain Summit, organised by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 15-16 February 2023.
• Michael Raska. Invited as a Delegate at the IISS Advanced Technology Workshop, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 12-15 March 2022.