The RSIS Distinguished Public Lecture by Professor Tan Kong Yam, NTUC Professor in International Economic Relations, RSIS; and Emeritus Professor of Economics, NTU; took place on 7 August 2024. Titled “Under the Shadow of Sustained US-China Rivalry: The Conceptualisation of a Pro-ASEAN Geoeconomic Strategy”, the lecture was moderated by Professor Kumar Ramakrishna, Dean of RSIS.
In the first 30 years of China’s industrialisation, US corporates, skilled workers and Wall Street benefited substantially while the unskilled workers’ employment declined, and their wages stagnated. Trump was the first candidate to exploit the votes of the unskilled workers. On the Chinese side, the overall economy, corporates, and workers all benefited, though the benefits accrued disproportionately to elites and corrupt officials. Less well researched is the negative effect on ASEAN countries, which suffered substantial de-industrialisation during this period.
Since 2015 when China spearheaded its “Made in China 2025” and especially since President Xi’s recent focus on “New quality productive forces”, its rapid climbing of the industrial ladder has increasingly threatened the industrial bases of the US, EU, Japan and Korea. On the other hand, China’s earlier competitive industrial structure with ASEAN has turned into greater complementarity. Over the next decade, dynamic market forces could subsume ASEAN’s industrial structure into significant dependence on China.
The current regional architecture is heavily weighted towards geopolitical and security alliances, with insufficient attention paid to regional geoeconomics. This presents a risk of ASEAN rapidly evolving into an appendage of China’s industrial structure over the next decade. During his lecture, Professor Tan offered a framework to help maintain a balance in ASEAN’s future industrial development, in the face of China’s continued industrial ascent.
Watch the Distinguished Public Lecture here:
Listen to In Conversation with Professor Tan Kong Yam here:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ave9NsG0awhgLT0C92IhK?si=3ebc32498f1c423c
More about the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) Professorship in International Economic Relations
In 2007, the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) raised a total of S$2.5 million, which, with additional funding from the Singapore Government and other sources, enabled RSIS to establish an endowed chair known as the NTUC Professorship in International Economic Relations. Set up in 1961, the NTUC is the national federation of trade unions in Singapore whose basic aim is to safeguard and enhance the interests of workers.
