What causes some Southeast Asian countries to cooperate with great powers and others to become antagonistic with them? This was the key question addressed by Dr Alvin Camba, Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver.

In his talk on “The Foreign Policy of Southeast Asian Countries Toward China” at RSIS on 10 February 2023, Dr Camba outlined the two prevailing explanations for foreign policy towards China drawn from international relations concepts – including neo-classical realism, hedging, and balancing – and domestic politics. Such explanations, however, reduce Southeast Asian foreign policy decisions either to macrostructural factors that impose decisions on leaders across administrations, or to decisions made by leaders that have been decontextualised from the host country’s economic and political structures.

In contrast, Dr Camba proposed a dynamic framework that considers both the political-economic context in the host country. Examining the case of the Philippines under the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001-2010), Benigno Aquino III (2010-2016), Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), and Bong Bong Marcos (2022-) administrations, Dr Camba argued that its foreign policy towards China has been largely determined by the processes of coalition mobilization and maintenance. Foreign policy decisions are determined by the members of the leader’s coalition and, in particular, by events that happen not just during the President’s term but also on the pre-regime coalition formation during elections. Political opportunities, economic motives, and social discontent in the prior administrations will coalesce into a process of coalition formation which, once elections are finished, will form the official members of the cabinet and the personnel surrounding the President. Following formation, coalition maintenance is necessary as well. Working with or against China allows the leader to assuage the political or economic concerns of their coalition members. Chinese projects are either dangled as resources or blocked to assuage the coalition. To strengthen the external validity of his argument, Dr Camba also discussed Malaysia’s foreign policy towards China under Mahathir Mohamad (2018-2022) and Indonesia’s foreign policy towards China under Jokowi (2014-).