The Military Transformations Programme (MTP) at RSIS organised a conference on the theme of “Navigating Uncertainty: Arms Control in an Age of Disruptive Technologies” from 7 to 8 November 2024. This was MTP’s fourth annual conference and built on the previous year’s event which explored the impact of disruptive technologies on strategic stability.
Although Cold War-era arms control mechanisms were largely successful, strategic stability is no longer underpinned solely by nuclear weapons. Arms control faces significant challenges and uncertainties from the emergence of disruptive technologies amidst geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
Ambassador Flávio Soares Damico from Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered the keynote address. Using the Cuban Missile Crisis and its aftermath as an example, he emphasised that progress often arises from periods of intense difficulty, and stressed that a deeper examination of issues could reveal nuanced opportunities for progress.
Day 1 of the conference comprised four panel discussions. The first panel evaluated existing arms control mechanisms and their relevance amidst the rise of disruptive technologies. The second panel explored the challenges posed by military AI, and the development of norms of behaviour to ensure its responsible and ethical use. The third panel focused on the need for robust international legal frameworks and norms to address the complexities associated with cyber operations. The final panel discussed the present state and future prospects of arms control in outer space.
The first day of the conference concluded with closing remarks by Brigadier-General Ng Pak Shun from Singapore’s Ministry of Defence. He offered three reflections on the future of arms control. First, disruptive technologies present both opportunities and risks. Second, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the challenges posed by disruptive technologies, which necessitates openness to adopting norms, principles, best practices, codes of conduct, and political declarations to prevent misunderstandings and avoid miscalculations. Finally, it is important to engage as widely as possible in arms control discussions.
Day 2 of the conference featured two workshops that were held concurrently. The first workshop invited participants to envision alternative futures of arms control for disruptive technologies in 2034. Key driving forces identified by participants included the increasing involvement of the private sector in warfare, escalating geopolitical tensions and strategic competition, and the impact of catastrophic events. The second workshop encouraged participants to explore barriers to arms control and disarmament for disruptive technologies. Although participants expressed pessimism about the impact of disruptive technologies, they acknowledged that states could shape the future of arms control by collaborating with the private sector.
