RSIS held a seminar on 19 August 2024 titled “How do Chinese Economic Sanctions Lead to Self-Destruction?” with Professor Baogang He, Alfred Deakin Professor and Chair in International Relations from School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University; and Fellow of Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. During the seminar, Prof He discussed about the concept of capacity approach to economic sanctions and illustrated concrete mechanisms on how states governed these capacities.
Prof He elaborated on his theoretical aim to advance ideas of Albert Hirschman, as well as Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and Norrin M. Ripsma (2008) via developing a thesis on logic of self-destruction and its mechanisms. By revising Blanchard and Ripsma’s theory of statecraft, he highlighted the importance of stateness that decided the outcomes of sanctions, of which stateness comprised of autonomy, capacity, and legitimacy. Additionally, it was crucial to understand the strategic interaction between the coercive country and the target countries, suggesting the “bargaining model” and “game theory model”.
Prof He then emphasised on the case of China’s economic sanctions against Australia, of which China’s sanctions against the latter would hurt its own economy as the country made up 29% of Australia’s total exports of products in 2022. Thus, with Australia having a supply advantage, it would be a fallacy to presume that “without China, Australia cannot survive”. Meanwhile, in recent years, American sanctions against China have reduced its ability to coerce – or have coercive capacity – which has surprisingly increased China’s resistance capacity.
The seminar concluded with a Q&A session with Prof He. The questions raised included how economic sanctions were being measured, ways on addressing operationalised problems related to the theoretical approaches, as well as effectiveness and limitations of coercive capacity.
