On 15 August 2024, Dr Adam Garfinkle, a consultant and former Distinguished Visiting Fellow at RSIS and Founding Editor of The American Interest magazine, spoke at the RSIS Webinar titled “Handicapping the Likelihood of a Kamala Harris Presidency.”
Dr Garfinkle recounted the major developments since US President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance on 27 June. For three weeks, the Democrat Party struggled to find their path forward, even as court decisions allowed Former President Donald Trump to avoid a legal reckoning before the election. Yet this was followed by Mr Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the race on 21 July, as well as the meteoric rise of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.
Dr Garfinkle observed that Mr Trump’s publicity strategy centres on “cheap heat”, a term popularised by World Wrestling Entertainment under Vince McMahon where wrestlers insult crowds to capture their attention. While this strategy keeps Mr Trump in the news, it is questionable whether it makes him more electable, especially in contrast to Ms Harris’ “Happy Warrior” image.
For her part, Ms Harris benefits from her relative youth and vigour, while being isolated from unpopular policies such as immigration and the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal due to the limits of the Vice Presidency. However, she lacks foreign policy exposure, and may struggle to appeal across class and race-based boundaries.
Dr Garfinkle expressed that Ms Harris is likely to win the popular vote but might still lose the election. He also cautioned that there will be violence in the aftermath of the election, though he doubted that attempts to overturn the election by delaying or questioning the certification of votes would succeed. He urged viewers to keep a close eye on developments both leading up to and after the election on 5 November.
