The Trump administration’s move to brand most of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea a violation of international law doesn’t mean much on its own: China has repeatedly refused to acknowledge the 2016 tribunal ruling that the US finally just endorsed. But analysts fear it could lead to a miscalculation at sea. “This may not necessarily change the texture of what the US military is already doing…the concern we have is the Chinese may decide to step up their challenge against these US activities in the SCS, thus increasing the risk of incidents,” said RSIS’s Research Fellow Collin Koh Swee Lean.