ICPVTR Webinar by Lieutenant General (R) Asad Durrani, Former Director-General of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) Pakistan
The Future of Al-Qaeda in the Context of the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Abstract
In the context of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, policymakers and terrorism scholars are divided in their analyses of Al-Qaeda’s current status and future trajectory. On the one hand, some believe that al-Qaeda is in terminal decline following the arrests and killings of its top leaders, including Osama Bin Laden, in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Furthermore, the global jihadist group lacks operational strength and wherewithal to plot and execute terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland and Western nations. The incumbent al-Qaeda chief Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri is old, frail and uncharismatic, underscoring the leadership crisis within the group.
Conversely, other experts warn that al-Qaeda is playing a long game by exhibiting strategic patience. It is waiting out the U.S. in Afghanistan, making it a dangerous, long-term threat, irrespective of its current organisational and operational strength. Al-Qaeda is still closely allied to the Afghan Taliban. In the post-US Afghanistan, the group will be able to reconstitute its depleted infrastructure and use the triumphant narrative of the U.S. defeat in Afghanistan to attract fresh recruits.
Against this backdrop, this webinar will explore how al-Qaeda has evolved since the killing of its founding leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in May 2011. In particular, what is the nature and level of al-Qaeda’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban? Will Afghanistan, once again, become the hub of transnational terrorism after the U.S. leaves the country? How will the triumphant jihadist narrative of the Taliban’s victory shape the future trajectory of jihadism? Are there any parallels between the current situation and the late 1980s when the former Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan as well?
Speaker
Lieutenant General (R) Asad Durrani retired as the Director-General of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in 1993. During his tenure as the DG ISI, he closely watched the developments in Afghanistan. General Durrani’s other eminent appointments during his illustrious military career (1960-1993) included being an instructor at the Officers Academy and Command & Staff College; Director General, Military Intelligence; Inspector General, Training and Evaluation at the General Headquarters; and Commandant, National Defence College (now a university).
General Durrani is also a German General Staff Academy graduate and has done a stint as Pakistan’s Defence Attaché in Germany. After retirement, he also served as the Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Germany (1994-97) and Saudi Arabia (2000-2002).
Besides participating in numerous national and international conferences and seminars, he was on several Track Two diplomatic initiatives on South Asian security affairs. He also contributes to local and international journals and recently has authored two books: Pakistan Adrift and Honour Among Spies; and co-authored a third, The Spy Chronicles, with a former chief of the Indian Research and Analysis Wing A.S. Daulat.
