http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ RSIS Publications en Copyright 2008, RSIS http://www.rsis.edu.sg/images/rsis_logo_small.jpg http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP207.pdf This paper provides a comparative study of the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for East Asian regionalism. It explains how and why the effects of the two crises on regional institutions were divergent and the differences derived from the origins of the two upheavals, internal versus external to the region. This generated contrasting expectations of how regional institutions might respond, which led in turn to diverse perceptions on the need for institutional change. While the events in 1997/8 were regarded as an “internal” crisis that regional institutions should have helped to rectify, the financial turmoil in 2008 was perceived in East Asia as an external development that existing regional institutions could not reasonably have been expected to address. Resulting from these contrasting readings of the two financial crises, the outcomes for East Asian regionalism have been equally different. The Asian financial crisis underscored the need for new overlapping arrangements capable of better defending the region against future financial instability. The less severe crisis affecting East Asia in 2008, in contrast, has led to a more dispersed and nationally driven institutional response. The competing proposals have been driven more by a perceived shift in the global power distribution than by any renewed or reinforced sense of regional vulnerability or common identity. Ralf Emmers and John Ravenhill Mon, 16 August 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP207.pdf This article addresses a very specific challenge the world and security institutions, notably those having as mission to provide intelligence, must currently face: their adaptation to a present and future conceptualized differently from the old Cold War worldview or from the following "Davos paradigm" and incorporating real life threats and dangers perceived as new. Helene Lavoix Mon, 2 August 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP206.pdf This paper looks at some of the unintended consequences of religious and ethnic profiling of minorities that took place during the colonial era, and which in 1915 lead to a mutiny by Indian Sepoys then stationed in Singapore. The 1915 mutiny later complicated inter-ethnic relations in the colony, and may have been one of the factors that contributed to the mobilization of Indian Muslims against British rule in Asia later. Today, the dynamics of the global "War on Terror" bears uncanny resemblances to the Indian Sepoy Mutiny in Singapore in 1915. Both reflect the dynamics of oppositional dialectics and the impact of racial-religious profiling on the identity of Muslims across the globe. They incur the politics of "othering" Muslims, which require them to choose between loyalty to their nation/state/empire and their ethno-religious community. A side effect is the sharpening of boundaries between the Western and Muslim worlds. Farish A. Noor Thu, 30 July 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP205.pdf The notion that Asia is rising and is set to dominate the latter half of the twenty-first century has become one of the most discussed of recent issues. The claim rests on a large number of economic, social, political and military assumptions and predictions. The scale and diversity of the issues to be addressed makes the validity of the claim hard to assess. This paper does not intend to provide a clear-cut answer as to whether the claim is true or not, but instead to review the issues upon which such a judgement will need to be based. Geoffrey Till Thu, 29 July 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP204.pdf There are inherent structural difficulties encountered in the beating of swords into ploughshares. China sought to resolve problems associated with its defence-conversion programme with grand strategic planning involving concerted efforts from all three pillars of power -- the party, the state and the army. A review of the defence-conversion programme suggests that the role of the military can be extended to encompass non-traditional missions during peacetime in order to reduce the burden on the national economy of defence spending, not only by diversification out of defence production but also by integration of the armed forces into more development-oriented activities. Lee Dongmin Mon, 21 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP203.pdf This working paper discusses a few possible ways how U.S. power may evolve from 2010 to 2040. I begin with a description of this work's objectives, and continue with the introduction of the mixed scenario method that will be used in this work. I will summarize the epochs of the U.S. power, such as establishing the nation, achieving the world hegemony, attempts to build an Empire, struggling with rising multipolarity and contemporary attempts to maintain the (declining) hegemony. Then I attempt to draw analogies from the knowledge of evolution of historical empires to the contemporary world’s political economy. Next, I will discuss the historical and emerging power trajectories of China and its long-term abilities to challenge the United States and achieve the world hegemony. Finally, I will provide two mixed-method scenarios, where the United States and China have totally different roles and powers. Tuomo Kuosa Mon, 14 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP202.pdf This essay examines how the divisive forces of religious fundamentalism have been a recurring feature of Singapore's history. It shows why events in 2009 and 2010 appear to suggest that the Singapore State may well be justified in continuing to consider religious fundamentalism as a potential threat to the social fabric of the nation. The essay then addresses two contending perspectives in coping with religious fundamentalism in Singapore, the so-called "Muscular Secularist" and "Liberal Secularist" views – the former favoured by the State and the latter reflecting the aspirations of some sections of civil society. The essay discusses the increasing pressure both from inside and outside Singapore on the State to soften its no-nonsense Muscular Secularist stance on coping with religious fundamentalism in Singapore and imbibe elements of the more nuanced Liberal Secularist perspective. Finally, it explains why Muscular Secularism is likely to remain the State’s preferred philosophy for managing religious fundamentalism for the foreseeable future. Kumar Ramakrishna Thu, 10 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP201.pdf The Asian financial crisis (AFC) of 1997–1998 had led to calls for the reform of the IFA—policies and practices of institutions that promote global financial stability. The V-shaped recovery from the crisis had, however, led to complacency and the proposed reform measures were quickly forgotten. The on-going global economic crisis (GEC) has once again ignited interest in IFA reforms. The G20 has also replaced the G8 as the premier institution for international economic cooperation. This is historic because, for the first time, systemically important developing countries have a say in IFA reforms. This paper reviews (i) recent efforts to reform the IFA and (ii) presents some thoughts on how Asia can strengthen its participation in the G20 and have a greater impact on IFA reforms. Parama Sinha Palit Wed, 9 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP200.pdf China’s rapid strategic elevation has been accompanied by conscious efforts to project a benign image of the Chinese nation and its culture. This has resulted in "soft power" assuming an increasingly important role in Chinese foreign policy. This paper examines the different aspects of Chinese soft power in South Asia, notably, cultural diplomacy, economic engagement and development assistance, in terms of their applications in individual countries of the region. Chinese initiatives in all these respects in the region have expanded sharply in recent years. This paper, however, argues that China’s overarching strategy towards South Asia is a careful mix of soft and hard postures. It further contends that the nature and pattern of deployment of Chinese soft power tools in the region has varied considerably between India and other smaller countries in South Asia. Sino-Indian ties will not only decisively determine future Chinese strategy towards South Asia but will also impact the outlook for Chinese soft power in the region. Parama Sinha Palit Tue, 8 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP199.pdf Do stated goals matter for the agents of regional institutions in East Asia? This question arises from an empirical puzzle described by the endurance of extant institutions and instances of institutional creation despite a poor record of goal accomplishment in the region. This paper surveys the stated goals of East Asian institutions, assesses the quality of these goals in terms of their conceptualization and means-ends relationships, examines the record of goal accomplishment and employs the insights of sociological institutionalism to argue that regional multilateral institutions in East Asia, in varying degrees, approximate to "“institutionalized organizations" which depend less on the efficient fulfillment of stated ends and more on the adoption of the rational myths of their environment for legitimacy and survival. Deepak Nair Mon, 7 June 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP198.pdf Military and intelligence-gathering activities, MSR and hydrographic surveys in an EEZ are problematic and controversial issues. There are at least two reasons for this situation. Firstly, the unresolved territorial and maritime boundary disputes mean that jurisdiction over an EEZ may be unclear. States may conduct all kinds of military operations and marine research in areas that might be claimed by other states. Secondly, some of the key terms and key expressions to define and regulate these activities under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) are ambiguous. This creates opportunities for countries to interpret UNCLOS for their own interest. In the past few years, some actual incidents have shown conflicts of interest between different countries. This paper discusses the nature of these conflicts and the main concerns of the opposing parties. Yang Fang Fri, 21 May 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP197.pdf The core Indian national interest until 2025, which is the time frame of this paper, will continue to be socio-economic growth. In consonance with this, the primary military objective of the Indian Navy (IN) is to promote a secure and stable environment in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), to facilitate this growth by being able to effectively deter potential adversaries. This paper examines the geo-strategic environment leading to the emerging maritime balance of power in the IOR. China's rapidly growing maritime power is the most recent factor in this balance. This has caused much concern in the region and is, therefore, discussed in some detail. Ashok Sawhney Fri, 7 May 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP196.pdf What are the political origins of America’s securities regulations? In contrast to arguments that point to business owners as determining the institutional foundations of America’s political economy, this paper argues that farmers play a leading role. Indeed, the rules and regulations governing U.S. securities markets were created in opposition to the wishes of business owners, and without farmers’ political influence, the United States may have developed a variant of the coordinated market economy found in continental Europe. Moreover, to the extent that U.S. securities regulations serve as a template for international financial standards, the paper will show that the humble American farmer has inadvertently contributed to the financialization of the modern global economy. Richard W. Carney Thu, 22 April 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/newsletter/RSISnews-0703.pdf News from the S. Rajaratname School of international Studies Oct 07 RSIS Fri, 18 Jan 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Think Tank http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Unproblematic%20Multiculturalism.pdf In his opening remarks, Kumar Ramakrishna, Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that in recent times, fears of social fragmentation along ethno-religious lines have compelled governments of multicultural societies to devise policies and strategies to ensure their nations' ability to cope with attacks on their social fabric. Drawing from the examples of Singapore, Australia and the U.K., as well as the works of scholars alike, “social resilience” has been touted as the key to keep these societies together in times of stress. Hence, the aim of the workshop is to generate discussions to operationalize the concept of social resilience in such multicultural societies. RSIS Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Implications_for_RMA.pdf The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is a sweeping, if often ambiguous, term used to describe an ambitious effort—a “paradigm shift”, if you will—to revamp the manner in which militaries will conduct warfare in the future. The RMA is seen as a process of discontinuous, disruptive and revolutionary change. RSIS Tue, 12 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Globalization%20and%20Economic%20Success.pdf This is the final event in what was designed as a three-part conference and research programme to identify best practices for emerging economies engaging with globalization. RSIS Wed, 26 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Launched a thousand years ago, the Crusades live on in Muslim memory. Extremists like Al Qaeda's chief Osama bin Laden say that the West is waging a consciousness today. But the Arab historians of that era considered it a marginal event. Exploring the paradox, this unique study shows how the modern Islamist narrative of the Crusades, wrapped around contemporary events in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, has gained ground in the battle for hearts and memories in the Muslim world. Edited by Umej Bhatia Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Is an ideal Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) being built? An ideal model of ASEAN is constituted by a combination of what can be regarded as a "People's ASEAN" and a "governments' ASEAN". The former is an association designed to serve the interests of people, while the latter aims to serve the interests of the ASEAN member states. Edited by Hiro Katsumata and Tan See Seng Mon, 3 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/reports/RSIS%20Social%20resilience%20report.pdf This survey addressed the following questions: Did Singaporeans prefer to interact along racial and religious lines? If so, did it necessarily constitute a threat to the social fabric of the nation? Yolanda Chin and Norman Vasu Fri, 2 Nov 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report