http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ RSIS Publications en Copyright 2008, RSIS http://www.rsis.edu.sg/images/rsis_logo_small.jpg http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP188.pdf This essay examines the role of small informal groups in multilateral negotiations by focusing on a case study of the discussions at meetings of the Invisibles Group in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) from 1995 to 1999. This grouping brought together senior capital-based negotiators from key constituencies in the WTO to discuss critical issues on the WTO agenda. The study highlights the role of such informal groups in creating a cross-cutting coalition in favour of the conclusion of multilateral agreements. Such informal groupings are particularly significant in the WTO as the convention has developed that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". As it is impossible to reach a consensus in a grouping of 153 members, the tendency has been to reach out to smaller groups to exchange views and narrow differences, which could provide the building blocks for consensus-based decisions. The essay concludes with the demise of the Invisibles Group in 1999 and explains the flawed reasoning which lay at the root of its eventual failure. Barry Desker Thu, 26 November 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP187.pdf This working paper was made possible through important contributions by individuals and organisations too numerous to name. I wish to thank the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies for providing me with the opportunity to conduct the research for this paper. In particular, I would like to thank the Director of the Centre, Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony and Research Analyst Sofiah Jamil for their assistance throughout the project. I would also like to sincerely thank the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (ISDS) in Diliman, the Philippines, in particular Founding President Dr Carolina G. Hernandez, Executive Director Dr Herman J. Kraft and Research Assistant Allan A. de los Reyes, for providing me the resources with which to conduct my research. I also owe particular thanks to the Manila Observatory at Ateneo de Manila University, The University of the Philippines Diliman, The University of the Philippines Mindanao, The Asian Institute of Management, The Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy and the International Alert organisation. Finally, I would like to thank Dr Ed Garcia and Dr Neric Acosta for taking an active interest in my research project. J. Jackson Ewing Mon, 23 November 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP186.pdf In an age of accelerating global change, effective strategic planning is increasingly a survival imperative for national governments. Singapore has long proven adept in this area, institutionalizing foresight in governance through programmes like interagency scenario planning and, more recently, a Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning network. Yet Singapore’s approach is enabled as much by cultural, historical, and geographical factors as it is by government willingness to invest in organizational innovation. The aim of this working paper is to compare government strategic planning in Singapore with that of a large country—the United States—and examine the contextual differences that give rise to their divergent approaches. It concludes with an assessment of what the two countries can learn from each other. Justin Zorn Wed, 4 November 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP185.pdf From post-colonial state to global superpower, America's relations with Southeast Asia—as with the rest of the world—have been driven by a peculiar sense of "manifest destiny." Founded upon such transcendent values as "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness," the United States as champion of those values in the world has, time and again, rightly or wrongly, made a case for American exceptionalism if not interventionism. In its quest for security and prosperity, and in little over two centuries of its existence, the United States attained a measure of global authority surpassing George Washington’s loftiest aspirations. Emrys Chew Thu, 29 October 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP184.pdf ABSTRACTThe involvement of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera) in the electoral democratic system in Indonesia raises a question whether it is possible for a political party with a deeply religious ideology to liberalize and entertain democracy? The decision to enter politics not infrequently entails an abandonment of ideological purity. It represents an acceptance of the political order and power sharing-based politics. While identity and ideology are instrumental in political mobilization for PKS, it has no choice but to negotiate and interact with other political actors through coalitions and parliamentary politics. A modern party involved in a competitive and rule-based system, it is also required to broaden its electorate and reach out to non-Islamist voters. It is intriguing in this context to explore the party’s strategy to maintain its Islamist platforms and the base of support while allying itself with distinctly non-Islamist ruling elites, and engage in the pragmatic ruling coalition. Understanding the paradoxical roles of an Islamist party when involved in the on-going electoral democratic process, this paper also looks at the future of political Islam in Indonesia. Noorhaidi Hasan Thu, 22 October 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP183.pdf The South China Sea disputes continue to play a destabilizing role in regional security and to act as an irritant in bilateral and multilateral relations. The Paracel and Spratly Islands are at the center of competing territorial, economic and strategic interests. This paper focuses specifically on the changing distribution of power in the South China Sea and assesses its implications for conflict management and avoidance. It notes a growing asymmetry of naval power to the advantage of China, causing concern in some Southeast Asian capitals. The paper discusses how the Southeast Asian nations have traditionally sought to mitigate the unequal power distribution in the South China Sea through a particular model of conflict management and avoidance. While acknowledging its positive impact, the paper highlights the limits of this model in the current context of rising power asymmetry and the swelling security dilemma caused by China’s growing naval strength. Ralf Emmers Wed, 30 Septemberl 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/newsletter/RSISnews-0703.pdf News from the S. Rajaratname School of international Studies Oct 07 RSIS Fri, 18 Jan 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Think Tank http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Unproblematic%20Multiculturalism.pdf In his opening remarks, Kumar Ramakrishna, Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that in recent times, fears of social fragmentation along ethno-religious lines have compelled governments of multicultural societies to devise policies and strategies to ensure their nations' ability to cope with attacks on their social fabric. Drawing from the examples of Singapore, Australia and the U.K., as well as the works of scholars alike, “social resilience” has been touted as the key to keep these societies together in times of stress. Hence, the aim of the workshop is to generate discussions to operationalize the concept of social resilience in such multicultural societies. RSIS Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Implications_for_RMA.pdf The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is a sweeping, if often ambiguous, term used to describe an ambitious effort—a “paradigm shift”, if you will—to revamp the manner in which militaries will conduct warfare in the future. The RMA is seen as a process of discontinuous, disruptive and revolutionary change. RSIS Tue, 12 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Globalization%20and%20Economic%20Success.pdf This is the final event in what was designed as a three-part conference and research programme to identify best practices for emerging economies engaging with globalization. RSIS Wed, 26 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Launched a thousand years ago, the Crusades live on in Muslim memory. Extremists like Al Qaeda's chief Osama bin Laden say that the West is waging a consciousness today. But the Arab historians of that era considered it a marginal event. Exploring the paradox, this unique study shows how the modern Islamist narrative of the Crusades, wrapped around contemporary events in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, has gained ground in the battle for hearts and memories in the Muslim world. Edited by Umej Bhatia Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Is an ideal Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) being built? An ideal model of ASEAN is constituted by a combination of what can be regarded as a "People's ASEAN" and a "governments' ASEAN". The former is an association designed to serve the interests of people, while the latter aims to serve the interests of the ASEAN member states. Edited by Hiro Katsumata and Tan See Seng Mon, 3 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/reports/RSIS%20Social%20resilience%20report.pdf This survey addressed the following questions: Did Singaporeans prefer to interact along racial and religious lines? If so, did it necessarily constitute a threat to the social fabric of the nation? Yolanda Chin and Norman Vasu Fri, 2 Nov 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report