http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ RSIS Publications en Copyright 2008, RSIS http://www.rsis.edu.sg/images/rsis_logo_small.jpg http://www.rsis.edu.sg/ http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP192.pdf The unprecedented rise of China raises difficult challenges of double-edged nature to both China and its neighbours in Northeast Asia. The nuclear program of North Korea is an outstanding example. The reform and open policy China has adopted since the late 80s mandated the Beijing government to adopt a policy of active engagement with its former adversaries, straining its ties with the former allies like North Korea. Pyongyang's persistent efforts for a nuclear option may represent a hedging strategy against the changing security environment, but for China, it creates multiple predicaments including the management of its relations with the US, Japan and South Korea. The proactive role China has been playing in the process of the multi-lateral negotiation for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear quandary, particularly the Six-Party Talks, is an interesting case with important lessons to learn. This working paper argues that China's increasingly active role in the multi-lateral efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue has proceeded in tandem with its grand strategy of engaging in regional and global governance as a responsible stakeholder. Also, by examining the problems China confronted in the process, the paper intends to demonstrate the limitations in China's role to promote stable security environment in the region. Chung, Chong Wook Mon, 8 March 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP191.pdf This paper looks at the spread of the Tablighi Jama'at network in West Papua, the Easternmost province of Indonesia and perhaps the most remote of all provinces in the country. It traces the early arrival of the Muslim missionary movement and looks at the methods that were used in its initial propagation and conversion of new members and supporters. The paper also considers the question of whether the Tabligh has been able to convert new pious Muslim followers among the ethnic Papus of West Papua, or whether it remains a predominantly closed missionary network that focuses primarily on the recent migrants from Java, Sumatra, Madura and other parts of Indonesia who arrived and settled in the province as a result of the transmigration program. Farish A. Noor Wed, 10 February 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP190.pdf Why are some countries more democratic than others? Two dominant approaches characterize how scholars have answered this question: economic development or modernization theory and the vibrancy of civil society. But these explanations often face the critique of endogeneity, and have difficulty accounting for countries that are wealthy yet are nondemocratic (e.g., Brunei and Kuwait), or exhibit strong civil societies without corresponding democratic institutions (e.g., Bangladesh and Morocco). This paper offers a different approach. It argues that a country's geographical attributes underlie and influence both economic development and civil society, and in turn affect democratic outcomes. Statistical evidence from over 100 countries offers evidence consistent with the argument. Case studies on twelfth century Italy, modern Malaysia, Malawi, and Paraguay illustrate the mechanisms at work. Richard W. Carney Thu, 10 December 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP189.pdf Various reasons purport to explain why the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) has failed to evolve from confidence-building to preventive diplomacy (PD). These include the ARF's large membership and weak institutional structures, its strict adherence to the sovereignty and non-interference principles as enshrined within the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) that contradict any effective implementation of PD, and contrasting strategic perspectives among its key participants. While these factors have certainly hindered security cooperation, none of these are sufficient conditions by themselves since they have not impeded other regional arrangements from engaging in PD. The claim here is that the ARF has evolved into a highly formal forum which, in combination with other oft-cited factors, has inhibited the adoption of a preventive diplomacy agenda and actionable PD measures. Indeed, the formalization of the ASEAN Way has in effect rendered the ARF a highly inflexible institution, making difficult the evolution towards PD. The problem appears less to be the ASEAN Way per se than a rigid interpretation and practice of the convention. When deliberately kept informal and flexible, the convention has in fact facilitated the adoption of PD measures, no matter how preliminary, by their host institutions. Ralf Emmers and See Seng Tan Mon, 7 December 200 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP188.pdf This essay examines the role of small informal groups in multilateral negotiations by focusing on a case study of the discussions at meetings of the Invisibles Group in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) from 1995 to 1999. This grouping brought together senior capital-based negotiators from key constituencies in the WTO to discuss critical issues on the WTO agenda. The study highlights the role of such informal groups in creating a cross-cutting coalition in favour of the conclusion of multilateral agreements. Such informal groupings are particularly significant in the WTO as the convention has developed that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". As it is impossible to reach a consensus in a grouping of 153 members, the tendency has been to reach out to smaller groups to exchange views and narrow differences, which could provide the building blocks for consensus-based decisions. The essay concludes with the demise of the Invisibles Group in 1999 and explains the flawed reasoning which lay at the root of its eventual failure. Barry Desker Thu, 26 November 2009 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP187.pdf This working paper was made possible through important contributions by individuals and organisations too numerous to name. I wish to thank the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies for providing me with the opportunity to conduct the research for this paper. In particular, I would like to thank the Director of the Centre, Dr Mely Caballero-Anthony and Research Analyst Sofiah Jamil for their assistance throughout the project. I would also like to sincerely thank the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (ISDS) in Diliman, the Philippines, in particular Founding President Dr Carolina G. Hernandez, Executive Director Dr Herman J. Kraft and Research Assistant Allan A. de los Reyes, for providing me the resources with which to conduct my research. I also owe particular thanks to the Manila Observatory at Ateneo de Manila University, The University of the Philippines Diliman, The University of the Philippines Mindanao, The Asian Institute of Management, The Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy and the International Alert organisation. Finally, I would like to thank Dr Ed Garcia and Dr Neric Acosta for taking an active interest in my research project. J. Jackson Ewing Mon, 23 November 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/WorkingPapers/WP184.pdf ABSTRACTThe involvement of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera) in the electoral democratic system in Indonesia raises a question whether it is possible for a political party with a deeply religious ideology to liberalize and entertain democracy? The decision to enter politics not infrequently entails an abandonment of ideological purity. It represents an acceptance of the political order and power sharing-based politics. While identity and ideology are instrumental in political mobilization for PKS, it has no choice but to negotiate and interact with other political actors through coalitions and parliamentary politics. A modern party involved in a competitive and rule-based system, it is also required to broaden its electorate and reach out to non-Islamist voters. It is intriguing in this context to explore the party's strategy to maintain its Islamist platforms and the base of support while allying itself with distinctly non-Islamist ruling elites, and engage in the pragmatic ruling coalition. Understanding the paradoxical roles of an Islamist party when involved in the on-going electoral democratic process, this paper also looks at the future of political Islam in Indonesia. Noorhaidi Hasan Thu, 22 October 08:00:00 +0800 Working Papers http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/newsletter/RSISnews-0703.pdf News from the S. Rajaratname School of international Studies Oct 07 RSIS Fri, 18 Jan 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Think Tank http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Unproblematic%20Multiculturalism.pdf In his opening remarks, Kumar Ramakrishna, Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that in recent times, fears of social fragmentation along ethno-religious lines have compelled governments of multicultural societies to devise policies and strategies to ensure their nations' ability to cope with attacks on their social fabric. Drawing from the examples of Singapore, Australia and the U.K., as well as the works of scholars alike, “social resilience” has been touted as the key to keep these societies together in times of stress. Hence, the aim of the workshop is to generate discussions to operationalize the concept of social resilience in such multicultural societies. RSIS Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Implications_for_RMA.pdf The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is a sweeping, if often ambiguous, term used to describe an ambitious effort—a “paradigm shift”, if you will—to revamp the manner in which militaries will conduct warfare in the future. The RMA is seen as a process of discontinuous, disruptive and revolutionary change. RSIS Tue, 12 Feb 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/conference_reports/Globalization%20and%20Economic%20Success.pdf This is the final event in what was designed as a three-part conference and research programme to identify best practices for emerging economies engaging with globalization. RSIS Wed, 26 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Conference Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Launched a thousand years ago, the Crusades live on in Muslim memory. Extremists like Al Qaeda's chief Osama bin Laden say that the West is waging a consciousness today. But the Arab historians of that era considered it a marginal event. Exploring the paradox, this unique study shows how the modern Islamist narrative of the Crusades, wrapped around contemporary events in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine, has gained ground in the battle for hearts and memories in the Muslim world. Edited by Umej Bhatia Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/monographs.html Is an ideal Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) being built? An ideal model of ASEAN is constituted by a combination of what can be regarded as a "People's ASEAN" and a "governments' ASEAN". The former is an association designed to serve the interests of people, while the latter aims to serve the interests of the ASEAN member states. Edited by Hiro Katsumata and Tan See Seng Mon, 3 Dec 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/reports/RSIS%20Social%20resilience%20report.pdf This survey addressed the following questions: Did Singaporeans prefer to interact along racial and religious lines? If so, did it necessarily constitute a threat to the social fabric of the nation? Yolanda Chin and Norman Vasu Fri, 2 Nov 2007 08:00:00 +0800 Report