The art and science of detecting and assessing “weak signals” emanating from the total security environment so as to forewarn policymakers, the private sector and the public about approaching “shocks” such as terrorism, pandemics, energy crises and other easy-to-miss trends and ostensibly distant events.

CENS conducts research in risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts, methodologies, and tools; as well as their applications for national security. Current projects include a landscape survey of risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts, methodologies and tools to further develop Singapore's Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning system. CENS organized the high-profile International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS) in March 2007 which featured a stellar cast of horizon scanning experts and futurists. CENS also organized the Pandemics Surveillance workshop in September 2007. In December 07, CENS will also conduct the Strategic Foresight workshop to explore the feasibility of incorporating the discipline of strategic foresight into the RSIS Masters curriculum. Meanwhile, a series of workshops on strategic risk assessment, operational risk assessment and threat assessment will be held in 2008. The second IRAHSS will be held in October 2008.